NFL DFS Picks: Plays and Strategy for Sunday Divisional Baller
The NFL playoffs roll on with the divisional round this weekend, and Yahoo NFL DFS contests will run for every day on which playoff games will take place. Sunday's action consists of a two-game slate: Buccaneers-Lions at 3 p.m. EST followed by Kansas City-Bills at 6:30 p.m. The biggest Yahoo NFL DFS contest for Sunday's divisional round slate is the $75K Sunday Divisional Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $75,000 to the top 1,175 finishers, including $15,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 133 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 4,450 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.
Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared toward head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.
[Play in Yahoo's Sunday Divisional Baller — guaranteed prize pool of $75K]
Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order), while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $75k Sunday Divisional Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit.
Sunday's suggested plays include a QB-WR stack facing a permissive pass defense and a seasoned playoff performer available at a reasonable valuation.
QUARTERBACK
Baker Mayfield, TB at DET ($28)
The last four QBs to face the Lions have averaged 379.8 passing yards, and that includes Nick Mullens twice. Mayfield is coming off a 337-yard passing performance in last week's 32-9 drubbing of the Eagles, and he should pile up plenty of yards against another vulnerable secondary here. Detroit allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the regular season, so Tampa Bay is likely to employ a pass-heavy approach, and Mayfield has quietly tossed multiple touchdown passes in nine of his last 12 games.
Honorable Mentions:
Josh Allen, BUF vs. KC ($39); Patrick Mahomes, KC at BUF ($29)
RUNNING BACK
Isiah Pacheco, KC at BUF ($30)
Pacheco's likely to play a prominent role in Kansas City's game plan against a Bills defense that allowed 4.44 yards per carry to RBs in the regular season — eighth most in the NFL. He comes into this game riding a streak of five consecutive appearances with a scrimmage touchdown, and Pacheco has at least 88 yards in five of his last six games. Kansas City thrived in the cold at home in last week's 26-7 wild-card round win over the Dolphins, so similar conditions in Buffalo shouldn't be an issue for this battle-tested team.
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs. TB ($27)
Tampa Bay tied for the fewest scrimmage touchdowns allowed to running backs in the regular season with seven, but the Rams also allowed just seven and both Gibbs and David Montgomery scored against LA in last week's 24-23 win. His 10-yard touchdown in the second quarter of the wild-card round was Gibbs' 12th TD in his last 12 games. The rookie is also the better pass-catcher of the two, which gives him the higher floor in Detroit's backfield, as he is likely to see plenty of volume whether it's on the ground with the Lions leading or through the air should Detroit fall behind.
Honorable Mentions:
Rachaad White, TB at DET ($28); David Montgomery, DET vs. TB ($25)
WIDE RECEIVER
Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET vs. TB ($36)
St. Brown exceeded 100 receiving yards in nine of 16 regular-season appearances, and he added a 110-yard effort in the wild-card round, though he saw a four-game touchdown streak come to an end in his playoff debut. After tying for second in catches (119) and finishing third in receiving yards (1,515) during the regular season, Brown will likely continue to get open at will against a Buccaneers defense that allowed the fourth-most yards to WRs this season (3,043).
Mike Evans, TB at DET ($26)
Evans is a strong choice against the leaky Lions secondary, whether or not you stack him with Mayfield. Detroit's struggles to defend the pass down the stretch have already been documented, and the Lions surrendered the third-most yards (3,081) and third-most TDs (22) to WRs overall. Evans was surprisingly quiet in the wild-card round while dropping a couple potential big gains, but his big-play ability should be back on display here after Evans tied for the league lead with 13 receiving TDs and finished ninth in receiving yards (1,255) in the regular season.
Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. KC ($23)
Diggs is mired in a six-game touchdown drought, but he has shown some signs of stirring recently, posting seven catches in each of his last two games and exceeding 50 receiving yards twice in a row after reaching that mark in only one of his prior seven outings. With Gabe Davis potentially sidelined again by a knee injury, Buffalo's alternatives in the passing game are limited, so Diggs should see plenty of volume, even against the stout Chiefs secondary. Coming off a fifth consecutive regular season north of 1,100 yards, Diggs certainly has the talent to heat up in a hurry.
Honorable Mentions:
Rashee Rice, KC at BUF ($26); Trey Palmer, TB at DET ($12)
TIGHT END
Travis Kelce, KC at BUF ($16)
Kelce caught seven of 10 targets for 71 yards in the wild-card round. That's a good game for most players, but it was Kelce's worst playoff performance in four years. He had at least 78 yards in all nine games over the previous three postseasons while scoring a TD in all but one of those games. After a quiet regular season by his lofty standards, Kelce's usage in the playoff opener suggests he still has plenty left in the tank for another productive playoff run, making him a can't-miss value.
Honorable Mentions:
Sam LaPorta, DET vs. TB ($21); Cade Otton, TB at DET ($10)
DEFENSE
Kansas City at BUF ($12)
Kansas City's defense allowed just 17.3 PPG in the regular season — second fewest after Baltimore — and this affordable unit was even better in the wild-card round, holding Miami's explosive offense to seven points. Josh Allen produces plenty of touchdowns for the Bills, but he's also prone to turnovers, as evidenced by his 18 interceptions this season. The Bills mustered 20 points en route to a controversial win in the regular-season meeting between these teams, but KC is 2-0 against Allen in the playoffs.
Honorable Mentions:
Buffalo Bills vs. KC ($16); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at DET ($11)
