NFL betting guide: Jets inspire rush of support and AFC West horse race among 32 team win totals
It’s a late summer rite of passage to inspect your favorite NFL team’s schedule and project a record that typically ends up being as overinflated as a car tire filled without an air-pressure gauge.
But what’s needed is a dose of objectivity and a franker assessment of the schedule, roster, matchups and data that betting shops rely on to set their preseason win totals.
Guided by numbers from Tipico Sportsbook, we canvassed sharp bettors, bookmakers and insiders to provide an analysis of all 32 teams’ win totals to get you read for the 2022 NFL season:
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (10.5): In what’s expected to be the league’s most competitive division, the six-time defending division-champion Chiefs join the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos at 10.5. Their pedigree, distinct home-field advantage and the presence of Patrick Mahomes (Tipico’s No. 2 MVP choice) make them the favorite.
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"If you take the under, you’re betting against what we all know of Patrick Mahomes," said Trey Wingo, chief trends officer and brand ambassador for Caesars Sportsbook. "There’s a reason the AFC West rosters look like an 'Avengers' movie."
But the road won't be early. Kansas City, who lost of Tyreek Hill in the offseason, host the defending-champion Rams and have tough road tests at Arizona, Tampa Bay and San Francisco.
Take the UNDER
Los Angeles Chargers (10.5): Coach Brandon Staley is the 13/1 favorite to win coach of the year. And despite an injury to interception magnet J.C. Jackson, the addition of Khalil Mack and a contract extension for Derwin James should create one of the league’s top defensive units.
"They have one 10-win season since 2010," Wingo reminds.
Take the OVER
Denver Broncos (10.5): Reports from camp are that the team looks sharp. The steadying presence of Russell Wilson at quarterback — he averaged 10.5 victories in Seattle — boosts a young, talented receiving corps and solid defense.
While a 2-0 start appears possible, sharp bettors are down on the Broncos making the playoffs, believing the teeth of the division will prove too fierce.
Take the UNDER
Las Vegas Raiders (8.5): The better over-under is, how long will it take fans to lament that they could have had Tom Brady? But Derek Carr is blessed with formidable receivers, including new addition Davante Adams. Ten victories seems likely given last season’s success and savvy coach Josh McDaniels.
"They’re criminally underrated after upgrading with Chandler Jones opposite Max Crosby now and getting a receiver like Davante Adams," Wingo said. “The only reason they don’t make it (to nine) wins is because of the (talented teams in) the AFC West."
Take the OVER
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (11.5): Projecting 12 wins from a team with a quarterback who dares to run so frequently is perilous.
Yes, Josh Allen is Tipico’s +650 MVP favorite, but their road schedule includes the season-opening Rams game, a trip to Kansas City, at Baltimore and a Jan. 2 meeting with defending AFC champion Cincinnati. Still, a healthy Allen likely gets it done.
Take the OVER
Miami Dolphins, (8.5): Can you believe in Tua? The books consider that question a 50-50 proposition — even with Tyreek Hill.
The Dolphins' late autumn stretch of Lions-Bears-Browns-Texans is a cakewalk, but can they sweep the popular Jets? It’s on Tua.
Take the OVER
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, (8.5): Mac Jones, Damien Harris and DeVante Parker aren’t names that stir excitement, but the Patriots return with Bill Belichick. His control of the entire operation brings immense comfort to those backing them financially.
That said, three of their first four games are on the road, and Buffalo is in the division.
Take the UNDER
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NEW YORK JETS (5.5): This is the most popular season-wins wager at FanDuel. Bettors jumped on the Jets following their rich draft including cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall.
The recent injury of second-year quarterback Zach Wilson has cooled the fervent support, but FanDuel reports the Jets have drawn four times the handle than the Giants.
"Yes, there are reasons to be optimistic after having one of the best drafts in years," Wingo said. "But right now, I’m not, because of their history, their division and the situation with the quarterback."
Take the OVER
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans (9.5): There’s inherent value here for a team that was the top-seeded AFC representative last season. Derrick Henry will return, but the distaste of their unsightly playoff exit to the Bengals has soured many.
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Still, there’s four games for the taking for Coach Mike Vrabel against the Jaguars and Texans along with dates against the Giants and Commanders.
Take the OVER
Indianapolis Colts (9.5): This number has jumped to 10 says Bally’s Jay Rood. He thinks the addition of quarterback Matt Ryan has piqued bettors' speculation that the field will open wider for No. 1 fantasy football choice Jonathan Taylor to pile up even more yards than last season.
Take the OVER
Jacksonville Jaguars (6.5): Another hot ticket. The sharps foresee new coach Doug Pederson, a leading coach-of-the-year candidate, teaming with second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence to move closer to mediocrity.
Warning: While the Jaguars play a last-place schedule, they are pitted against the AFC West and have Dallas and Baltimore on the schedule, too.
Take the OVER
Houston Texans (4.5): New coach Lovie Smith inherits an improving quarterback in Davis Mills, but the discouraging outcomes could lead to quite a spiral here.
Take the UNDER
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (9.5): The defending AFC champions reloaded with a staunch offensive line to provide improved protection for Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Joe Mixon.
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The first-place schedule is ominous, and we know the reputation of Super Bowl losers — but reaching 10 victories appears a lock.
Take the OVER
Baltimore Ravens (9.5): Something just seems amiss here, and despite the confidence in Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh, a slip seems at hand.
Trading Marquise “Hollywood” Brown did Jackson no favors and first-round pick Kyle Hamilton joins a revised secondary looking to stop the air attacks that did them in last season.
Take the UNDER
Pittsburgh Steelers (7.5): Pennsylvanians are flocking to the over at FanDuel mostly because they’ve never seen this type of prediction attached to a team coached by the distinguished Mike Tomlin, who hasn’t had a losing record in 15 seasons.
Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett potentially playing the most important position threatens to strip the franchise of some of its intimidating tradition.
"I can understand why there’s some trepidation, but the quarterback is the only situation that even remotely troubles me," Wingo said.
Take the OVER
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Cleveland Browns (off the board): The team’s quarterback uncertainty following Deshaun Watson’s 11-game suspension has kept shops away from posting a number.
NFC WEST
Los Angeles Rams (10.5): The urge to jump on the over dissipates after one glance at the defending champion’s schedule.
They have home games versus the Bills, Cowboys and 49ers, and take to the road against the Buccaneers, Saints, Chiefs, Packers and Chargers.
“My concerns for the Rams are on Matthew Stafford’s elbow," Wingo said. "if it’s a problem, 10 is a high number."
Take the UNDER
San Francisco 49ers (9.5): The excitement over new quarterback Trey Lance is palpable. With a roster including Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa, coach Kyle Shanahan is a 15/1 second choice at Tipico for coach of the year.
SuperBook’s Jay Kornegay, however, reports sharp under action on San Francisco.
Take the OVER
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Arizona Cardinals (8.5): Acrimony preceded the team’s decision to extend its contractual relation with Kyler Murray and then his game preparation was called into question.
The addition of receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown should help Murray. But after last season’s fade, how he fares under immense scrutiny and four games versus the AFC West is compelling theater.
Take the UNDER
Seattle Seahawks (5.5): Wingo notes the last time the Seahawks won less than six games was in 2009 — before Coach Pete Carroll arrived.
Losing Russell Wilson to Denver, the Seahawks were left with the less-proven Drew Lock at quarterback. Though Wingo said it was Seattle’s pre-draft interest in Lock in 2019 that moved Wilson to push for a contract extension.
Take the UNDER
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (10.5): There’s significant sharp action on them at the Las Vegas SuperBook, but it’s on the under. But Wingo notes the Cowboys haven’t posted back-to-back 10-plus-win seasons since their golden age of Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin in the mid-1990s.
There also hasn’t been a repeat NFC East champion since 2003-2004.
Take the UNDER
Philadelphia Eagles (9.5): Another wave of local support makes the Eagles’ over a popular wager at the books. Returning from a playoff loss to the Buccaneers, Philadelphia added receiver A.J. Brown from Tennessee.
"But if (quarterback Jalen) Hurts doesn’t take the lead here, they’re set up with a bunch of draft picks to select a quarterback next year," Wingo said.
The money says Hurts is up to the challenge.
Take the OVER
New York Giants (7.5): Veteran sharp bettor Bill Krackomberger put $4,050 on the under, not convinced by new coach Brian Daboll and returning quarterback Daniel Jones.
The Giants’ first-round draft pick linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux is out for the start of the season with a knee injury.
Take the UNDER
Washington Commanders (7.5): The number is down partly because defensive end Chase Young is sidelined for at least the first four games. He continues to complete recovery from surgery to repair torn knee ligaments.
Another reason for the low total is quarterback Carson Wentz, who didn’t inspire confidence in an unsightly showing for the Colts in last season’s playoffs-or-bust season finale in Jacksonville.
Take the UNDER
NFC NORTH
Green Bay Packers (10.5): The first-place schedule and the loss of Davante Adams are alarming, but returning MVP Aaron Rodgers will likely continue to dominate division games. An October dose of Patriots-Giants-Jets-Commanders is appetizing.
Take the OVER
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Minnesota Vikings (9.5): Former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell takes over to coach a team paced by Pro Bowl receiver Justin Jefferson while seeking to coax more from quarterback Kirk Cousins.
The truth will be revealed when they open against the Packers, then venture to Philadelphia before heading to New Orleans in Week 4.
Take the OVER
Detroit Lions (6.5): Their popularity has spiked thanks to “Hard Knocks,” but the increased visibility has soured sharps, who’ve loaded up on the under despite the good feelings espoused by coach Dan Campbell.
Take the UNDER
Chicago Bears (6.5): Not much faith from sharp bettors here. Krackomberger said the Bears are a franchise not willing to seriously compete. He placed a $7,250 wager on the under.
Take the UNDER
NFC SOUTH
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11.5): It’s not Tom Brady that prognosticators are focusing on. It’s a 45-year-old unprotected as his offensive line crumbles to injury.
"Every year, a team gets decimated by injuries. And this is really a problem now, facing that kind of pressure up the middle," Wingo said. "Yeah, they’ve got Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones … I don’t care who your receivers are. If your quarterback is on the ground, they’re not getting the balls."
Sharps at the SuperBook have pounced accordingly.
Take the UNDER
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New Orleans Saints (8.5): Questions persist about how former defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will replace the creative play-calling schemes of his predecessor, Sean Payton. But quarterback Jameis Winston is back and the defense is one of the league’s premier units.
"The Saints are really going all in this year — the opposite of the Bears," Krackomberger said after showing USA TODAY Sports his $4,800 ticket on New Orleans.
Take the OVER
Carolina Panthers (6.5): This number ignites perhaps the sharpest debate among bettors. Can Baker Mayfield make them a winner? Will Christian McCaffrey remain healthy?
"They have to show something offensively," Wingo said. "Baker, when healthy, is as good as anybody, but he’s a little small and a little slow, and last year he was beaten to a pulp. I know people are expecting McCaffrey to get right, but he hasn’t been in two years, and that’s the one position where full health doesn’t necessarily return.
Take the OVER
Atlanta Falcons (4.5): This number has moved down a point based on the lack of confidence in the Falcons. A season of drubbings is likely.
Take the UNDER
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL win totals: Breaking down the betting shop numbers for every team
