NFL betting: Are we really going to trust the Chargers again?

Some years, it’s just not meant to be. There were few teams I was higher on than the Los Angeles Chargers entering the 2022 season. I know it sounds like a sucker bet in hindsight, but betting NFL futures isn’t all victory laps. After the Rams hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in their shared stadium, the Bolts' little brother complex kicked in, leading to an onslaught of impressive offseason moves heading into last season. On paper, the Chargers looked as if they could compete with anyone, even the Kansas City Chiefs, who went on to win the Super Bowl after earning their seventh straight AFC West title.

So how did my Chargers win total, Super Bowl and Justin Herbert MVP bets lose value so quickly? Injuries were a big part of it. The talent edge gained after an impressive offseason quickly eroded as several key stars hit injured reserve. JC Jackson battled an ankle injury through the first month, before his season ended in late October. Joey Bosa missed 12 games, Keenan Allen wasn’t healthy until December, and Rashawn Slater was lost for the season after the first three games. Herbert’s breakout season was sabotaged as he battled through broken ribs and a torn labrum.

Injuries can’t account for all the blame. The Chargers' season ended in a crushing postseason loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars when they squandered a 27-0 lead. Surprisingly, head coach Brandon Staley returns after surviving the third-largest collapse in playoff history.

If you are thinking I would never trust this franchise after enduring such a snake-bitten season, think again. The Chargers are the perfect example of a team that was held back by factors that aren’t predictive (cluster injuries) and unlikely to reoccur this upcoming season. Although there will be no Super Bowl or MVP bets this time around, the win total is too low for me to pass up.

Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 Wins (-125)

Any lack of faith regarding the Chargers' upside is likely connected to Staley. After taking the league by storm with his aggressive fourth-down decision-making, Staley did a complete 180 last season, falling back in line with the conservative norms of his peers. 2023 is a make-or-break season for Staley, as NFL owners aren’t known for having patience when their franchise quarterbacks are entering their prime years.

I am a believer that the hiring of OC Kellen Moore won’t just open the offense, but return Staley to the aggressive mentality that made him a lightning rod in his debut season. The Chargers' most urgent offseason priority was to pair Herbert with his future No.1 receiver, one that possesses game-breaking speed and elite athleticism. To their credit, they hit a home run by drafting former TCU WR Quentin Johnston. It’s not just about how Johnston will create space for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but it’s a clear commitment from the Chargers to fully build the offense around the strengths of their star quarterback. They also doubled-down on building the team in Herbert’s mold by making him the highest-paid quarterback in the league with a five-year, $262.5 million dollar extension. With one of the best young tackles in Slater protecting him and Moore on the headset, it’s hard not to get excited about the upside with Herbert and the Chargers' offense.

Staley's work doesn’t end there. In fact, Herbert soaring through his potential ceiling will only shine a spotlight on the defense. That’s where his influence is most prominent as the Chargers’ defensive play-caller. Last season’s splurge on high-profile names like Jackson and Khalil Mack was supposed to bring Staley’s defense to the next level. Instead, injuries and a very generous run defense kept L.A. in the middle of the pack. The Chargers finished the season 16th in both success rate allowed and defensive DVOA, but nobody wants to hear about advanced metrics after surrendering a 27-point lead in your first playoff game.

Staley’s schematic tendency to concede the run game could be problematic now because teams league-wide are more willing to play smash-mouth against coverage linebackers and hybrid safeties. However, the addition of a “glue guy” in Eric Kendricks will improve the linebacking corps, and the pass-rushing duo of Mack and Bosa can be lethal as they get accustomed to being on the field together. Like any veteran group, the Chargers' defense boils down to the health of it’s key contributors, but it’s a situation where I think it’s more likely to improve than not.

It may have taken Staley one more year than I had hoped, but my bankroll will forgive him if he puts together another 10-win season. Staley has won nine and 10 games in his first two years under some challenging circumstances. The books setting this win total right in the middle at 9.5 is a reaction to his underwhelming second season, along with Sean Payton’s arrival in the division. I’m not as high on Denver as the market, and I have the Chargers as the clear runner-up in the division. Betting 1st Chiefs/2nd Chargers at +175 in BetMGM’s straight forecast market is a way to back L.A. to hold its ground in the AFC West. The 2021 49ers are the only 10-win team to finish in third place over the past five years.

Quarterback and play-caller are the two-most important people on the football field in today’s NFL. The Chargers have the quarterback, and the move from Joe Lombardi to Moore should be more than enough for them to avoid taking a step back. I’m backing the Bolts at over 9.5 wins.

Stats provided by Clevanalytics, PFF, Fantasylife.com.