NFL award races: Dak Prescott, Tyreek Hill, Micah Parsons in line for hardware

There's plenty of recency bias involved in awards voting. Fair or not, what you do in the final month of the season usually matters more than what happened in September.

There are four games to go, and while there are some clear favorites for the major NFL awards, very little has been settled aside from Offensive Rookie of the Year. What happens in the last four games will swing some of the votes.

Here's an update on each major award with four games left:

MVP: Dak Prescott leads, but has a problem

We dove into the MVP race in depth last week, and not too much changed. Dak Prescott is the MVP betting favorite at BetMGM at +150 odds, and he still has the same problem. Of the past 14 MVPs, 13 have been a quarterback on a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in their conference. Adrian Peterson in 2012 was a major outlier in what has become a formulaic voting criteria. Prescott is playing very well, but the Philadelphia Eagles still have the inside track to win the NFC East, due to tiebreakers and a soft remaining schedule.

Would voters give Prescott MVP if the Cowboys are the No. 5 seed? Something like that hasn't happened since 2008. Brock Purdy, who is second in the odds at +175, could be the pick if voters go by their usual criteria, unless they look to someone like Lamar Jackson in the AFC. And don't totally count out Jalen Hurts, whose Eagles still should win the NFC East based on their remaining schedule.

Offensive Player of the Year: Tyreek Hill, but it's closer

Hill was looking like a possible dark-horse MVP candidate before Monday night, when he suffered an ankle injury and missed most of the Miami Dolphins' loss to the Titans. His OPOY odds fell to -200 after that game, giving Christian McCaffrey a reasonable shot. McCaffrey is not too far behind at +150, and if he finishes strong, combined with Hill being slowed down or missing time, he could grab the award late. Hill seemed to have this award wrapped up, but it's not as clear anymore.

Defensive Player of the Year: Down to 3 elite pass rushers

It's not unreasonable to think someone on the edge of the DPOY race could have a huge finish and steal the award. But the odds indicate it's a three-man race, and that seems accurate.

Micah Parsons is the favorite at BetMGM, with -130 odds. Myles Garrett is second at +200 and T.J. Watt is further back at +600. The Pittsburgh Steelers fading in the playoff race and Watt having already won the award — we know voters generally like spreading awards around — doesn't help him. But Watt has 14 sacks compared to 13 for Garrett and 12.5 for Parsons, and if he can get to 20 sacks and that leads the NFL, that would be a compelling argument.

It's hard to differentiate between Garrett and Parsons. Both are established stars who have similar playmaking impact and stats. Parsons' Dallas Cowboys are almost certainly going to the playoffs and Garrett's Cleveland Browns are likely going, too. Garrett is No. 2 and Parsons is No. 3 among edge rushers in Pro Football Focus' grades (Nick Bosa is first, and Watt is fifth for what it's worth). This race is too close to call and the final four games should decide it.

Coach of the Year: 3 co-favorites in a wide-open race

When the Detroit Lions were rolling toward an NFC North title, Dan Campbell was Coach of the Year favorite and it seemed like he'd be tough to catch. A rough four-game stretch that included losses to the Bears and Packers have knocked the Lions back a bit and doesn't reflect all that well on Campbell. That opened up the Coach of the Year race too, and it's wide open. Campbell, Mike McDaniel of the Miami Dolphins and DeMeco Ryans of the Houston Texans are all tied for the favorite spot at +325 odds.

Coach of the Year is usually an odd award with voting criteria that is difficult to define. Could it go to McDaniel for his work with the Dolphins' offense? Maybe Ryans if the Texans make the playoffs? Someone like Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers or Sean Payton of the Denver Broncos could get consideration if they help dig their teams out of horrible starts to make the playoffs. Keep an eye on which team surprises everyone and sneaks into a wild-card spot; that could end up being how Coach of the Year is decided.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: It's over

This is all you need to know about Offensive Rookie of the Year: BetMGM took the odds off the board. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is a practical lock to win the award, even if he misses time due to a concussion suffered in Week 14. The question isn't whether he's this season's best rookie, it's whether he is having the greatest rookie season for a quarterback in NFL history.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter will be tough to catch

Carter has been a great defensive tackle for the Philadelphia Eagles and the odds indicate he's the easy favorite for DROY. He's -500 and nobody else has odds shorter than 7-to-1. Someone like Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. could make things interesting, but it looks like Carter's award to lose.

Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin still leads

Hamlin is likely to become one of the most unusual winners of any major award in sports history. But his story is unusual. Hamlin has played nine defensive snaps all season but he's a huge -500 favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. It's hard to come up with any historical comparison to that. But for Hamlin to come back at all, after his frightening medical emergency on the field in Cincinnati last season, is remarkable. Tua Tagovailoa would be the winner if on-field production was the biggest factor instead of what a player came back from, but it seems like this was always Hamlin's award as long as he played even a little bit.