NFC Championship betting preview: Props and picks for 49ers vs. Rams
A third meeting between the 49ers and Rams, including a second in January meant there isn’t much on the table that these two teams don’t know about each other. A typical Q&A preview with our friend Cam DaSilva from The Rams Wire felt out of place.
Since the 49ers and Rams met, both teams have earned a pair of postseason victories. There’s no official injury news and the rosters are virtually identical to what they were earlier in the month. Instead of asking and answering questions with The Rams Wire, we turned to the betting market to look at some individual players, score predictions and ideas on how the game might play out.
To the picks! (Odds via Tipico Sportsbook).
49ers prop bets
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
George Kittle anytime TD scorer (+170): The 49ers offense is sputtering and the best way to alleviate that is to involve Kittle. San Francisco will surely lean heavily on its run game, but Kittle has yet to have a huge impact in the passing game in the postseason. Jimmy Garoppolo has a great rapport with the tight end and should look for him during any trips to the red zone.
Jimmy Garoppolo over 223.5 passing yards (-114): While Garoppolo hasn’t been great in two playoff games and gone well under this number twice, he went way over it every week over the final six regular-season games. He may not have a monster game, but he’ll have to put the ball in the air to keep up with a Rams offense that’s rolling.
Kyle Juszczyk over 1.5 receptions (+112): Honestly it’s just kind of fun to bet on the fullback AND it’s plus money. There’ll be at least one play designed for him though and then all he needs is a checkdown against a good Rams pass rush. Garoppolo hasn’t been very eager to run, so it’s easy to see a dump-off or two to Juszczyk to get him over.
Rams prop bets
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Cam Akers over 18.5 receiving yards (-111): Akers has been heavily involved in the Rams offense since returning from injury, being targeted eight times in three games. He’s clearly the better receiver than Sony Michel, which will give him opportunities on third down.
Odell Beckham Jr. anytime TD scorer (+140): Beckham has scored in six of his 10 games with the Rams. In his first matchup with the 49ers, he played just 15 snaps. He didn’t score in Week 18, but he’s become one of Stafford’s go-to targets in the red zone.
Tyler Higbee over 3.5 receptions (-172): Higbee hasn’t had a big performance all season, failing to top 69 yards or catch more than six passes in any game. However, he’s caught at least four passes in 11 games this season – including six receptions in Week 18 against the 49ers.
Over/under
(AP Foto/Mark J. Terrill)
Niners Wire: These are arguably the two best pass rushes in football so both teams are liable to try and get the ground game going to avoid the back-breaking turnover. That’s not to say the teams will necessarily play scared, but points may be hard to come by if the run games aren’t thriving and the pass rushers can pin their ears back. They needed a pair of late touchdowns to go over 45.5 points in Week 18, and they went under back in Week 10. I’m leaning under in a 23-17 or 24-20 type of game.
Rams Wire: The over/under is only 45.5 points, which is almost 10 points lower than Chiefs-Bengals. The Rams and 49ers both boast solid defenses, but it’s hard not to bite on the over with the line sitting at 45.5. I could see either quarterback throwing a pick-six, but I also think both offenses will move the ball consistently. I like the over.
Money line
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Niners Wire: It’s not a coincidence the 49ers have knocked off the Rams in six consecutive contests. They’re a tough matchup for LA and this is going to virtually be a 49ers home game. That being said, these teams are mostly a wash with how they’re playing right now with the big difference being quarterback play. Matthew Stafford is simply playing better than Garoppolo at this point. He doesn’t have to be elite to get a win, and it’s hard to put a ton of faith in Garoppolo guiding a high-scoring offense at this point. That delta between Stafford and Garoppolo will determine the outcome, so I’m going to go with the Rams.
Rams Wire: This is the time for the Rams to end their losing skid to the 49ers. They were embarrassed in the first meeting this season, but Week 18 really should’ve been won by the Rams. As long as they clean up their tackling, don’t turn the ball over several times and Stafford doesn’t force passes into double/triple coverage, the Rams will win.
Spread
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Niners Wire: San Francisco has been able to turn every game into a rock fight since they found their stride a little more than halfway through the season. Even if the Rams find a way to finish with more points than the 49ers, it doesn’t feel like a major blowout is on the table. The hook makes this spread extremely enticing. I’ll go with the 49ers +3.5.
Rams Wire: The Rams have only covered the spread once during their six-game losing streak to the 49ers, so it might seem foolish to take them to cover on Sunday. But they’ve had comfortable leads in each of their last three games and probably should’ve blown out the 49ers, Cardinals and Bucs if not for uncharacteristically poor second halves. I think the Rams can win this one comfortably. Gimme the Rams -3.5.
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