Dose: The Human Element

I’m probably putting it lightly when I say that the Daily Dose has bashed plenty of NHL decisions over the years.

From sometimes-bumbling handling of dirty hits to seemingly treating the symptoms of declining offense rather than deeper causes, the league often seems to progress in often-irritatingly small baby steps. Yet, during a week in which some of the darker elements of everyday life have interrupted our attempts to bask in the blissful ignorance of sport, Gary Bettman & Co. deserve some legitimate pats on the back for making the right choices.

Better yet, they made those correct calls quickly. (At this pace, I almost wonder if the league may actually get rid of the trapezoid. Huzzah!)

Now, some might view the decisions to suspend Slava Voynov indefinitely and postpone Wednesday’s Toronto Maple Leafs - Ottawa Senators game following tragic shootings as the executive versions of “tap-in goals,” but I’m not so sure.

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Suspending a player so early on in the investigative progress is wise, yet it’s not especially precedented in the NHL. (Again, Semyon Varlamov’s situation - whether key variables are indeed different or not - received a very different response.) It’s plausible that they wouldn’t have been so stern if the Ray Rice fiasco didn’t blow up in Roger Goodell’s face, but as this column argues: so what? Sometimes it’s best to set aside cynicism for a moment and appreciate a good decision.

Postponing Buds - Sens was a more obvious choice, although it stands to mention that rescheduling sporting events can often be messier than some realize. (We’ll get a better idea of how the Leafs and Senators will be affected once the league announces the schedule tweaks.)

Long story short, kudos are in order for the NHL (bonus points for the Pittsburgh Penguins considering their tribute to Canada on a tough day for the country). Such unadulterated praise for Bettman is about as rare as a healthy season for Martin Havlat, but let’s hope we’re seeing the beginning of a positive pattern for puckheads.

Such a week got me thinking about the “human element” to fantasy hockey results.

We often get so wrapped up in shots on goal, point totals, offensive zone starts and other factors that we forget that very human factors can play a role in wins and losses. As far as today’s column goes, I’m not so much interested in delving into Patrick Roy-approved discussions of “complete level” as much as I’d like to ponder contextual variables that can move the needle here and there.

Let’s dig into some factors that may fly under the radar.

Back-to-backs: A fresh team doesn’t always beat a team that played the night before. That’s especially true in this still-young season, as fatigue may very well become a taller mountain once the calendar turns to 2015.

That said, most of the time, I’ll lean toward the group that didn’t grind away for 60 minutes or more the night before.

(Note: I can’t promise anything will come of such studies, but back-to-back impacts are something I’d like to keep an eye on as 2014-15 goes along.)

Saving face: If there’s one time to back a team coming off back-to-backs beyond obvious mismatches (ex: any decent team against Buffalo), it might be when a team got shellacked the night before.

(Note: the shellacked rule probably won’t apply to teams who are at risk of nightly shellackings … like, you know, the Sabres.)

The Philadelphia Flyers dropped what must have been a demoralizing 4-0 defeat to the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday only to beat the Penguins in Pittsburgh 5-3 last night. On paper, it seemed like Pittsburgh would be an easy choice to win big, yet now the Penguins find themselves a mere game above .500 this season.

History can repeat itself, but don’t get stuck assuming it will, either: I think it can be dangerous to put too much weight in past experiences, particularly in an age of turnover for rosters and front offices alike.

Still, the Penguins and Flyers factor into this consideration in an interesting way, as well; Philly is now 10-1-1 against Pittsburgh at the spiffy Consol Energy Center. I wouldn’t wager my life savings (seriously, stop laughing at mentions of my savings, that’s not very nice) the next time the Pens host the Flyers (especially since it’s happening on April Fools Day 2015) … but I might not bet against the Flyers, either.

Contract year motivation: Anyone who’s been following the Dose knows that “in a contract year” is one of my favorite draft-day and waiver wire tie-breakers. Not every player maximizes his earning potential when there’s a ton of money on the line, but enough guys have conveniently (or luckily) bumped up their production in such a way that it’s difficult to deny the pull of such factors altogether.

That said, with GMs becoming more and more comfortable with the limitations placed on them by the salary cap as the years go on, fewer and fewer true difference-makers get all that deep into their contract years. From T.J. Brodie to Bobby Ryan, early extensions are becoming more and more common.

Contract malaise: Some guys are so talented and/or driven that they don’t slow down one mile-per-hour even with their long-term future secured. I’d wager that others might not be immune to that “crossing the finish line” feeling, even if it could very well be subtle or even subconscious.

Long-term, pricey contracts are especially worrisome with goalies, if you ask me, but that’s a discussion for another day.

I’d generally guess that players are highly motivated overall - if you think these guys made it this far on talent alone, you might be an especially bitter and especially old writer - so maybe a bigger factor is that added pressure of living up to a big contract. That must be especially difficult to deal with for players who signed deals that end up becoming “albatrosses.” People tend to throttle overpaid players as if they’re villains, even if the only crime is bad management by a GM.

Still, if all things are equal, I say go for the hungry player over the well-fed one.

Day-to-day context: There are also contextual circumstances to consider each night. A player trying to scorn his former teammates is something that gets overlooked, yet can provide dividends (see: Mike Ribeiro and Marin Erat scoring against the Arizona Coyotes and Nashville Predators, respectively). If you're spot starting a goon, it's also wise to note if he has any rivals on the opposing team.

Apple of coach’s eye/target of coach’s ire: One other human factor to consider is the human behind a team’s bench. Will a coach be too loyal to a goalie based on past successes? May a coach develop a weird distaste for a given guy, like Randy Carlyle did with Mikhail Grabovski and Roy had with P.A. Parenteau?

Such dysfunctional relationships aren’t always easy to identify until after the damage has been done, but sometimes things can be perplexing to the naked eye. A productive Dustin Penner finds himself not just off the Ryan Getzlaf - Corey Perry line but out of the lineup (and then, somewhat shockingly, out of the league). Jake Gardiner goes from a leading ice time getter to street clothes for Toronto.

(Gee, we sure seem to see Carlyle and Roy showing up quite a bit in these negative examples, don’t we?)

A coach who just can’t stand a guy - or just can’t help but overvalue a favorite - can nudge things quite a bit.

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Look, it’s probably asking too much to consider factors like these and other more contextual examples.

Still, it’s often true that fantasy leagues are won and lost by miniscule margins. While the Dose mainly leans toward cold, hard facts, sometimes anecdotal evidence can be the most compelling.

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