NCAA tournament: Bubble teams to watch during conference tournament play
A dramatic end to college basketball's regular season saw some bubble teams all but play their way into the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
Frequent Big Dance darling Loyola Chicago secured an automatic bid after decisively ending its bubble status with a Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship game win over Drake on Sunday. Meanwhile North Carolina, Michigan and Memphis all picked up high-quality wins against rivals that will have them breathing easier this week.
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But conference tournament week remains stressful for a handful of bubble teams that likely won't survive without deep runs. The list includes names like Indiana, Florida and Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, programs like Notre Dame and Miami appear on the right track. But they'd be on firmer ground without an early round exit.
Likely in, but a win would help
Michigan (16-13, NET: 34, KenPom: 31, Quad 1 record: 4-9)
Michigan entered Sunday firmly on the bubble, but got a much-needed high-quality win over tourney-bound rival Ohio State. Prior to Sunday, Michigan went 2-2 since head coach Juwan Howard's suspension for swinging at Wisconsin assistant Joe Krabbenhoft.
Howard will be back on the bench in the Big Ten tournament starting Thursday, where a win over bubble team Indiana will likely guarantee a bid. But the Wolverines are in a much better spot now with four Quad 1 wins to go with their quality NET and KenPom ratings.
North Carolina (23-8, NET: 32, KenPom: 32, Quad 1 record: 2-7)
North Carolina was set to sweat tournament week until making life considerably easier by spoiling Mike Krzyzewski's home finale at Duke. Its first win of the season over a certain tournament team alongside a near-perfect record against Quad 2 (21-1) teams or worse almost certainly secured an at-large bid.
But there's no reason to temp fate or remind the committee of that one very bad loss against Pitt, which finished 2-16 in ACC play. A win against either Virginia, Louisville or Georgia Tech in their first game Thursday night will make a likely at-large bid a guarantee for the Tar Heels.
Memphis (18-9, Net: 42, KenPom: 27, Quad 1 record: 3-3)
After a shaky start that included three- and four-game losing streaks, Memphis finished strong with a 10-1 run to end the regular season. The win over No. 14 Houston to close the season and complete a sweep of the Cougars was huge. It has head coach Penny Hardaway on track for his first NCAA tournament bid since taking over his alma mater in 2018.
Don't punch the ticket quite yet. An opening AAC tournament loss on Friday to either USF or UCF will again raise doubts about the Tigers. But a trip to the conference semifinals or beyond should seal Memphis' tournament fate.
Miami (22-9, NET: 59, KenPom: 59, Quad 1 record: 4-1)
Miami has some bad losses on its résumé. But wins over Duke, North Carolina and Wake Forest en route to a 4-1 Quad 1 record should be enough for an at-large bid. Losses to Virginia and Virginia Tech in their past five games didn't help the Hurricanes' cause. Consecutive wins over Syracuse and Boston College to close the season averted disaster. On Thursday, they'll face either Wake Forest, Pittsburgh or Boston College to open ACC tournament play, where a win would almost surely punch their ticket.
Notre Dame: (21-9, NET: 49, KenPom: 47, Quad 1 record: 2-6)
The Fighting Irish finished in second place in the ACC, but a dearth of top quality wins leaves their tournament status in doubt. Notre Dame secured wins over North Carolina and Kentucky and generally took care of the dregs of the ACC. It also finished strong with a 12-3 record down the stretch after starting the season 3-4.
The Irish's second-place finish earned them a bye into the conference quarterfinals, where they'll face either Virginia Tech, Clemson or NC State on Thursday night. Win, and they're in. Lose, and they might still be in.
Plenty of work left to do
Indiana (18-12, NET: 43, KenPom: 44, Quad 1 record: 3-7)
Indiana enters Big Ten tournament play moving in the wrong direction with missed opportunities to secure its standing down the stretch. The Hoosiers looked safely on their way to NCAA tournament play with a 16-5 start (7-4 in Big Ten). But they lost seven of their last nine conference games to drop to 9-11 and missed big opportunities in their final two games.
They lost to fellow bubble team Rutgers on Wednesday and dropped a 69-67 heartbreaker to No. 8 Purdue on Saturday. A win in either would have been a boost to their tournament hopes. Now they're left to depend on a big run in the Big Ten tournament just to have a chance. Up next, Michigan, which tips at 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.
Florida: (19-12, NET: 53, KenPom: 53, Quad 1 record: 2-9)
Florida missed an opportunity for another Quad 1 in a 71-63 home loss to Kentucky on Saturday. Like Indiana, the Gators need to make some noise this week to boost their standing. A win over potential No. 1 seed Auburn on Feb. 19 will help their cause. But it's not enough to send Florida dancing without a strong showing in this week's SEC tournament. Up next on Thursday, a Texas A&M team they lost to on Feb. 15.
Virginia Tech (19-12, NET: 32, KenPom: 29, Quad 1 record: 1-5)
Virginia Tech ranks higher in KenPom and NET ratings than other teams on this list. But a single Quad 1 win and a seventh-place finish in a mediocre ACC mean the Hokies have work to do this week. A season-ending loss to a 16-15 Clemson team didn't help their cause. Up next on Wednesday night, the winner between Clemson and N.C. State.
VCU (21-8, NET: 51, KenPom: 63, Quad 1 record: 2-3)
A team that has lived on the bubble lost its regular-season finale to St. Louis, leaving little wiggle room in the A-10 tournament. The Rams enter tournament play Friday night as the No. 3 seed in an A-10 that may not produce an at-large bid unless No. 1 seed Davidson falls. Even then, Davidson isn't a lock to earn an at-large bid. A win over No. 2 seed Dayton in the semifinals could put VCU into the at-large conversation, but don't count on it.
Wyoming (23-7, NET: 48, KenPom: 56, Quad 1 record: 4-4)
Wyoming looked destined for an at-large bid, but a 3-4 finish in Mountain West play has raised doubts. The Cowboys are in better shape than most teams on this list. But they're trending downward, and an opening round loss to UNLV at the MWC tournament on Thursday could seal their fate. Eking out an overtime win over Fresno State on Saturday was huge.
Rutgers (17-12, NET: 76, KenPom: 74, Quad 1 record: 6-5)
Rutgers has been all over the place. After starting 3-3 with losses to DePaul, Lafayette and UMass, the Scarlet Knights finished in fourth place in a tough Big Ten. They won four straight in February against ranked opponents Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. They followed it up with three straight losses to Purdue, Michigan and Wisconsin.
A win over fellow bubble dweller Indiana before edging Penn State in the season finale has Rutgers pointing in the right direction. A win over Iowa, Nebraska or Northwestern to open tournament play Friday will help their cause.
SMU (21-7, NET: 50, KenPom: 58, Quad 1 record: 2-2)
SMU finished second in the AAC and has three quality wins with a sweep of Memphis and a series split with Houston. The lack of notable wins elsewhere leaves the Mustangs with some work to do. They'll need a victory against Wichita State or Tulsa in the conference quarterfinals on Friday night and likely another in the semifinals to keep their at-large hopes afloat.
Xavier: (18-12 NET: 34, KenPom: 51, Quad 1 record: 5-9)
Xavier was on track to lock up an at-large bid with a 16-4 start. Then the wheels fell off. The Musketeers closed the season with a 2-7 stretch that included a five-game skid before Saturday's win over Georgetown. A win over Georgetown isn't what it used to be. The last-place Hoyas finished 0-19 in Big East play.
Xavier meets the definition of not passing the eye test heading into NCAA play. The Musketeers have some quality wins, but need to pick up a few more to convince the selection committee they're worthy of a Big Dance bid. A win over Butler in the opening round Wednesday and another over No. 1 seed Providence that would likely do it.
Watching with the rest of us
BYU (20-10, NET: 55, KenPom: 50, Quad 1 record: 4-6)
Meanwhile, BYU's bid is out of its hands. The Cougars lost to San Francisco in the WCC quarterfinals on Saturday and have no more games to play. They'll need some breaks to go their way to secure an NCAA bid.
