NCAA Tournament bracketology: How will Big East teams fare on Selection Sunday?
Among the six major power men's basketball conferences in the country, the Big East is the only league without a team positioned for a top-two seeding or good enough to steal a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.
The Big East's top teams aren't in the upper echelon this season, but that doesn't mean we should sleep on its teams or the conference's strength as a whole.
That notion was evident in Connecticut's 71-69 upset of Villanova on Tuesday, a victory that vaulted the Huskies to a No. 6 seed in the latest NCAA Tournament bracketology projection. The road loss kept 'Nova at the No. 3 seed line – the highest of any Big East team, slightly ahead of Providence at the No. 4 line. Both teams looked seasoned, well-coached and like a scary matchup for any opponent on the bracket.
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The Big East owns the fourth best NET ranking and has a forecasted seven teams in the field of 68, with Marquette (No. 6), Xavier (No. 8) and Seton Hall (No. 8) all relatively safe. Only Creighton rests near the NCAA Tournament bubble, but it is going in the right direction with five wins in a row.
The selection committee will pay no attention to conference rankings, and if there's one thing the Pac-12 taught us last year, it's that the regular season offers a skewed barometer for how well a league can perform in March Madness. There are Final Four-caliber teams in this conference in Villanova and Providence, as well as teams not to sleep on like UConn.
Once the best league in the country before conference realignment led to its 2013 restructuring, we're still seeing the Big East live up to its brand as a top-tier league. However, now the Big East's depth (seven of 10 teams potentially dancing) is the way to assess the league on Selection Sunday, not its lack of top seeds.
No. 1 seeds
Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona, Kansas.
Last four in
SMU, Michigan, San Diego State, Indiana.
First four out
North Carolina, Memphis, Belmont, VCU.
Next four out
Virginia, Saint Bonaventure, Florida, Dayton.
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Others considered for at-large bids: St. John's, Kansas State, Colorado, Oregon, Saint Louis, Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, West Virginia.
On life support: Oklahoma, Cincinnati, Drake, Vanderbilt, Louisiana Tech, Richmond, UCF, Missouri State, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida State, Fresno State, Toledo, Santa Clara, UAB, Stanford, Washington State.
Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (9), Big East (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), ACC (4), West Coast (4), Mountain West (4), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2).
Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences - (23 total): A10 - Davidson; America East - Vermont; Atlantic Sun - Liberty; Big Sky - Montana State; Big South - Longwood; Big West - Long Beach State; CAA - Towson; C-USA - UAB; Horizon - Cleveland State; Ivy League - Princeton; MAAC - Iona; MAC - Ohio; MEAC - Norfolk State; Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago; Northeast - Wagner; Ohio Valley - Murray State; Patriot - Colgate; Southern - Chattanooga; Southland - New Orleans; SWAC - Texas Southern; Summit - South Dakota State; Sun Belt - Texas State; WAC - New Mexico State.
Ineligible schools: Oklahoma State (banned), Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego, St. Thomas.
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NCAA Tournament language explainer:
NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET
Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point.
About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his ninth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past eight March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.
About our college basketball reporter: Scott Gleeson has covered men's college basketball for USA TODAY since 2012, contributing to bracketology and running Bubble Tracker before tackling everything March Madness following Selection Sunday. He correctly forecasted Virginia would win the national championship in 2019 before the season began and also picked Loyola-Chicago as a Cinderella mid-major in 2018. Follow him on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA bracketology: How will Big East teams fare on Selection Sunday?
