NCAA picks: Rivalry week could clarify CFP picture
Nov. 21—The biggest question mark inside the College Football Playoff is whether Michigan or Ohio State will be playing in the four-team postseason.
And it's quite simple, really. The winner of this game Saturday will go on to beat Iowa in the Big Ten championship and clinch the spot in the CFP's top four teams.
But there are other big rivalries to watch this week. One will be No. 7 Texas versus Texas Tech on Friday night. If the Longhorns lose, they're out. If they win, there's still a chance for them to jump into the CFP with a Big 12 championship victory as well.
No. 16 Oregon State at sixth-ranked Oregon is worth a watch on Friday night as well. Oregon is looking for a spot in the Pac-12 title game against Washington and looking for a little revenge if they get there. The Beavers will just be playing to spoil the Ducks' season.
No. 8 Alabama at Auburn has plenty of implications. If Auburn pulls off the upset, the Crimson Tide can kiss the season goodbye. If Alabama takes care of business it can upset top-ranked Georgia in the SEC title game and likely earn a spot in the CFP.
No. 4 Washington hosts Washington State and is just trying to maintain a perfect record to stay in the mix. No. 5 Florida State goes to Florida and will try to avoid an upset for the same reasons. Washington and FSU just traded spots in Tuesday's latest rankings — which I predicted would happen in last week's column.
Georgia, the best team in the country and ranked accordingly, hopes to not fall asleep at Georgia Tech so it can retain its No. 1 status.
Last note: My goal was to improve from my back-to-back 15-5 records in Weeks 10 and 11, and I did so by going 19-2 in Week 12.
Let's pick these games:
THURSDAY
No. 12 Ole Miss (9-2) vs. Mississippi State (5-6): Rebels move to 10-2 and earn a good bowl bid.
FRIDAY
No. 13 Oklahoma (9-2) vs. TCU (5-6): This isn't much of a game on Friday morning. OU is out of playoff contention, and TCU doesn't strike me as an upset threat.
No. 17 Iowa (9-2) vs. Nebraska (5-6): Shockingly, Nebraska is actually favored to win this game. I think the Cornhuskers will put up a fight with their strong defense. But Iowa wins in the end.
No. 23 Tulane (10-1) vs. Texas-San Antonio (8-3): UTSA has a good shot at pulling off the upset here. The Roadrunners have improved a ton since dropping three of their first four games. But Tulane does just enough to win.
No. 9 Missouri (9-2) vs. Arkansas (4-7): Mizzou just has to make sure they don't come out flat, and they'll roll past the Razorbacks. There isn't much to play for here as MU is out of CFP contention and Arkansas can't make a bowl game. Tigers win.
No. 7 Texas (10-1) vs. Texas Tech (6-5): The Red Raiders might hang around for the first half but Texas is too good to drop this one. Longhorns clinch spot in Big 12 title game.
No. 11 Penn State (9-2) vs. Michigan State (4-7): The Spartans don't have a prayer. Nittany Lions grab win No. 10 on the year.
No. 16 Oregon State (8-3) vs. No. 6 Oregon (10-1): Ducks soar past the Beavers and land themselves in the conference championship game.
SATURDAY
No. 10 Louisville (10-1) vs. Kentucky (6-5): The Cardinals are being haunted by the loss to Pittsburgh still yet. Even with a win here and a win in the ACC title game, they can't make the CFP. But Louisville does win this.
No. 8 Alabama (10-1) vs. Auburn (5-6): Alabama isn't slipping up here. Nick Saban has way too much on the line to not make sure his kids are ready for this game. Roll Tide.
No. 15 Arizona (8-3) vs. Arizona State (3-8): The Wildcats shocked me this year. This has been a great year for Arizona. This will be the ninth win.
No. 20 Oklahoma State (8-3) vs. Brigham Young (5-6): The Cougars couldn't quite upset the Sooners last week. Expect them to come into Stillwater with all cylinders firing. BYU upsets OSU to earn a bowl bid.
No. 21 Tennessee (7-4) vs. Vanderbilt (2-9): The Volunteers smoke their rival Commodores at home.
No. 25 Liberty (11-0) vs. Texas-El Paso (3-8): On Saturday, the new line will need to be liberty and justice for UTEP as the football team gets mistreated for four quarters. Liberty wins.
No. 5 Florida State (11-0) vs. Florida (5-6): Same thing here. The Gators are playing for a bowl bid and to spoil their in-state rival's CFP hopes. But, even without Jordan Travis playing quarterback, the Seminoles escape the swamp.
No. 18 Notre Dame (8-3) vs. Stanford (3-8): Fighting Irish roll to their ninth win.
No. 1 Georgia (11-0) vs. Georgia Tech (6-5): Nothing to watch here. Bulldogs make easy work of the Yellow Jackets.
No. 24 Clemson (7-4) vs. South Carolina (5-6): Clemson hasn't been very good all year. The Gamecocks are looking to reach a bowl game. Spencer Rattler will lead his team to a win.
No. 19 Kansas State (8-3) vs. Iowa State (6-5): KSU takes care of business at home and just hopes enough Big 12 teams lose this week to open the door for them to make the conference title game.
No. 22 North Carolina State (8-3) vs. North Carolina (8-3): The Wolf Pack end the year with a quality win over their in-state rival. This one doesn't matter for the CFP but should be fun to watch.
MY PICKS
No. 2 Ohio State (11-0) vs. No. 3 Michigan (11-0): OSU has lost this game two years in a row. I don't care if I'm on the sideline coaching on Saturday, Michigan won't need Jim Harbaugh. Wolverines beat their rival for a third year in a row. BIG GAME. No. 14 LSU (8-3) vs. Texas A&M (7-4): The Aggies are going to go into Louisiana and pull off an upset. All three of TAMU's conference losses are by one score. It will end the year with a big road win. LSU and Jayden Daniels have been fun to watch, but even a win here wouldn't earn them a big playoff game. UPSET.
No. 4 Washington (11-0) vs. Washington State (5-6): The Cougars can spoil their rival's shot at the CFP and make a bowl game. They have plenty to play for. But the Huskies are disciplined and have an elite offense to stave off the upset. LOCK PICK.
Records
187-47; My picks: 18-18; Big game: 6-6; Upset: 2-10; Lock pick: 10-2.
