NBA DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Saturday, May 6
We're in for a wonderful weekend! We're getting into the guts of these series, and we have two Game 3s to discuss for this Saturday slate. Both of these are 1-1 series, and something tells me both matchups will go seven games. What's strange is that we have a day game between the Knicks and Heat, which means you need to get in your lineups early!
Stephen Curry, GSW at LAL ($43)
Chef Curry was being double-teamed all night in Game 2, but his playmaking carried Golden State to that blowout win. The former MVP had 20 points and 12 assists, despite taking just 12 shots across 30 minutes. We expect Curry to take 20-25 shots and play closer to 40 minutes the deeper we get into this series. That sort of role allowed Curry to average nearly 50 Yahoo points per game in the regular season. The matchup with LA's lackluster defense only adds to his value, with the Lakers allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing PGs.
Gabe Vincent, MIA vs. NYK ($12)
Vincent has been a great role player for Miami all year, but he's being asked to do a ton with Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo sidelined. That expanded role has led GV to score at least 33 Y! points in three straight games. More importantly, he's playing 38.3 minutes while attempting 19 shots a game in that span. That's a ridiculous role from such an affordable player, but Miami needs him to do that with Herro and Oladipo still out. Vincent has eviscerated NY all season, too, scoring at least 33 fantasy points in each of their last three matchups.
Guard to Avoid
Jordan Poole, GSW at LAL ($17)
We hate to pile on Poole, but this guy looks lost out there right now. The volatile guard has only cracked 16 Yahoo points once over his last four games. The relegation to the bench has been an issue all year, though, with JP averaging 23 Y! points per game in his 44 games coming off the bench. The minutes, shot attempts and usage all plummet when he's coming off the pine, and it will continue to shrink the more these studs swallow up all of the usage and minutes.
Jimmy Butler, MIA vs. NYK ($44)
It sounds like Playoff Jimmy will be ready to return here, and that's bad news for the Knicks. Before his injury in Game 1, Butler averaged 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals in these playoffs. That's less surprising when looking at his previous postseasons, as he's averaging nearly 50 Y! points per game over the last seven years. Something lights up in this guy's eyes when the lights are the brightest, and they couldn't be brighter than a playoff game in Madison Square Garden.
Josh Hart, NYK at MIA ($20)
Hart was one of the best acquisitions at the trade deadline. He was killing it off the bench for New York in the regular season, but a move to the starting lineup has skyrocketed his fantasy value. It's the role that makes him impossible to fade, as he's playing 41 minutes a night since his insertion into the starting lineup. He could play poorly and still score 30 Y! points in 41 minutes, dropping 43 fantasy points in his most recent outing. All you need is 25-30 Y! points for Hart to be an immense value, and that's a guarantee in this monstrous workload since that's what he averaged during the regular season in a 32-minute role.
Forward to Avoid
Julius Randle, NYK at MIA ($30)
Randle had a big night in Game 2, but that looks like the outlier when examining his playoff form. The big man failed to score more than 38 Yahoo points in any of his previous six games before that blow-up, averaging just 24 Y! points per game in that span. You need 40 fantasy points from a player in this price range, which could be problematic against Miami. The Heat ranked second in total defense during the regular season while surrendering the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing PFs.
Anthony Davis, LAL vs. GSW ($50)
Davis struggled along with the rest of the Lakers in Game 2, but look for the big man to bounce back here. AD had 72 Yahoo points in Game 1, scoring at least 53 fantasy points in five of his last eight outings. That sort of upside is right on par with his season average, and LA needs him to go off in this spectacular matchup. Not only does Golden State play at the fastest pace in the NBA, but the Warriors also surrender the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing big men. He has the best matchup of anyone on the floor with his elite skillset, and it'd be hard to imagine AD posting another dud in this 1-1 series.
Kevon Looney, GSW at LAL ($22)
Looney was held to just 12 minutes off the bench in Game 2, but Golden State was just limiting him because of an illness. We expect the center to resume his usual 30-minute role here, a role which has helped him score at least 36 Yahoo points in five of his previous six games. He dropped at least 42 Y! points in four of those, gobbling up nearly 20 boards a night. That elite production should continue against LA, with the Lakers ranked 20th in total defense during the regular season.
Center to Avoid
Mitchell Robinson, NYK at MIA ($20)
Robinson was one of the most valuable players in the opening round, but his role isn't the same when Randle is in the lineup. That limits his playing time and rebounds, leading to him scoring 12 Y! points across 21 minutes in Game 2. That floor has been frightening all season, with Mitch-Rob scoring 18 or fewer fantasy points 19 times this year. One of those duds looks more likely against Miami, with the Heat surrendering the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers. They also played at the second-slowest pace, which is scary since Robinson needs rebounds and volume to provide value.