NBA betting, odds: Let's capitalize on Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving partnership
When the news broke that the Dallas Mavericks acquired Kyrie Irving, my knee-jerk reaction was to size up the potential fit between the two ball-dominant superstars. How would they share the ball? How would it impact Luka's pace? I was skeptical they could legitimately contend in the West, so the question is whether the trade creates betting opportunities with the Mavericks.
Futures tickets weren't going to be it, especially with Durant in Phoenix. Even if Doncic and Irving learned to complement each other on offense, Dallas would still be a below-average defensive team that got much worse. Then, the light bulb went off. Dallas will figure out the scoring well before they can guard anybody. Betting on the opponent team total overs became my wager of choice. It's been a successful play through the first two games, and I am not ready to jump off the train until the Mavericks' defense makes me. I'm confident that won't happen Wednesday night, as Dallas travels to Denver to take on the NBA's most efficient offense. Let's go to the well one more time.
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets — Nuggets team total over 118.5
Mavericks games going over the total isn't anything new. Dallas' overs have paid out at a 55.9% clip during the season and have hit in five of their last six games. The opponent team total overs hit in the last two as well, with Minnesota soaring over its closing number by more than 10 points on Dallas' home floor.
Since Irving's debut, the Mavericks have allowed 133 points to Sacramento, before letting up 124 to Minnesota. It may look like a slight improvement game to game, but once you consider the drop off in offensive firepower between the two opponents, you can clearly see there was little to no improvement. Sacramento scores more than anybody in the league (119 ppg), and the Mavs still allowed Minnesota to clear their scoring average on the road (114 ppg) by a wide margin.
Dallas sacrificed defense in a desperate attempt to get Doncic some help, and the early numbers bear that out. The new-look Mavs lineup has a defensive rating of 125.4, which is worse than any team's season-long rating. To be fair, all we have is a two-game sample, so take it with a grain of salt.
However, the bigger factor is how significant of a mismatch Denver's offense is with Dallas', even if Jamal Murray continues to rest his knee. Dallas typically operates at the second-slowest pace in the NBA, and playing in the thin air at Denver isn't going to make hustling back on defense any easier. Without a true rim protector to slow down two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, Dallas will be at the mercy of the Nuggets' playmakers all night. Denver's offense has been unstoppable at home this year, averaging over 121 points and ranking No.1 in both offensive and net ratings. The Nuggets are 4-0 to the over in their last four at Ball Arena, and this Dallas team just doesn't have the bodies to deal with the Nuggets' depth and versatility. While the market tries to figure out what to make of this Mavericks defense, I will continue to bet it hasn't found the floor. The full game total is currently 232.5 at BetMGM, but my best bet would be to isolate the Nuggets team total over at 118.5 when it becomes available.
Stats provided by nba.com, teamrankings.
