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NASCAR Odds, Talladega: Plate-racin' toward Round of 8; time for Bob Barker's Plinko board

Ken Willis, Daytona Beach News-Journal
·5 min read
4

Man, talk about symbolism.

Look at that odds board.

Everyone is so packed together.

Well, of course they are, it's Talladega week! You think the traffic is tight here, just wait until Sunday, when they're sitting this close at a very high rate of speed, nervously fearing that one bobble from here, there or way up there. That's when we might see the perennial odds-on favorite at Talladega.

That's right, the Big One.

Back in the spring, in the final 50-some laps, we saw four multi-car crashes that included a total of 24 cars.

But with Talladega, you just never know. A year ago in this YellaWood 500, there was just one — an eight-car banger that came early, on Lap 25.

Even when clean near the end, Talladega can resemble one of Bob Barker's old Plinko games, with everyone helpless and just hanging on as the tumblers tumble into the money laps. In the end, Talladega always spits out a winner, in some form or fashion.

Let's take a look at our Plinko board ...

NASCAR QNA Bubba Wallace is the MVR and you didn't know it; Round of 8 passes thru Talladega

That’s right, Brad Keselowski!

Brad Keselowsk +1,100; Ryan Blaney +1,200; Joey Logano +1,200; Chris Buescher +1,300

There was a period of a few years when every plate-race felt like Kez’s to win or wreck. At Daytona, he usually crashed. At Talladega, the record is better — six career wins there, to be exact.

There was a time when Brad Keselowski was the man to beat at Talladega.
There was a time when Brad Keselowski was the man to beat at Talladega.

Four at fourteen hundred, including Chase Elliott and Bubba Wallace

William Byron +1,400; Denny Hamlin +1,400; Chase Elliott +1,400; Bubba Wallace +1,400

Bubba Wallace loves plate-racin’. Chase Elliott probably has just two more decent chances to get a win this season, this week at ’Dega and next week at the Charlotte Roval.

THRU THE GEARS Bubba Wallace "choked," Kyle Busch "don't get it," William Byron gives HMS 300th NASCAR win

“Kyle Busch. Paging Kyle Busch”

Ross Chastain +2,000; Ricky Stenhouse +2,000; Kyle Larson +2,000; Kyle Busch +2,000; Austin Cindric +2,000; Christopher Bell +2,200

Kyle Busch isn’t desperate quite yet, but he’s gaining on it. And why, exactly, is Austin Cindric this high up? Since winning the Daytona 500 over 19 months ago, not even superspeedways have been all that kind to him.

Could the winner come from here? Yes. Might it be Kevin Harvick? Um, maybe?

Erik Jones +2,500; Daniel Suarez +2,500; Tyler Reddick +2,800; Ty Gibbs +2,800; Michael McDowell +2,800; Kevin Harvick +2,800; Chase Briscoe +2,800; Austin Dillon +2,800; Alex Bowman +2,800

This seems to be the chunk of the odds board that smells like a real payday. Maybe it’s just me, but I see temptations galore right here.

The one-man division

Martin Truex Jr. +3,000

We’re constitutionally obligated to remind you of Truex’s superspeedway record at Daytona/Talladega. It’s now a combined 0-for-74. “One of these days, Alice, one of these days …”

Others: Ryan Preece is channeling Ricky Bobby this week

Ryan Preece +3,500; Carson Hocevar +4,500; Corey LaJoie +5,500; Harrison Burton +10,000; Chandler Smith +25,000

Preece’s No. 41 will be dressed in the Wonder Bread colors made famous by Will Ferrell in “Talladega Nights.” If that ain’t worth 10 or 15 extra horses, what is?

Prop me up

As always, the manufacturer odds get your attention. Here they are for Talladega: Chevy +125, Ford +135, Toyota +350. My goodness, aren’t Hamlin and Bubba in Toyotas?

Some others that caught the eye …

◼ Erik Jones at +1,000 for a top-3 and +400 for a top-5.

◼Martin Truex +850 for top-3, +350 for top-5.

◼ Brad Keselowski (-120) head-to-head against Joey Logano (-110).

◼ Denny Hamlin (-125) vs. William Byron (-105).

Last week

Had Chase Elliott to finally win, and while he was sniffing it through two stages (sixth in both) he managed to go the wrong way in Stage 3 and finish 11th.

For the prop, I had Ty Gibbs over Kevin Harvick, but Ty went behind the wall early.

Easy come, easy go. Right?

Can’t take it with you. Right?

Work with me here.

This week: Denny Hamlin an easy Talladega choice? Too easy, actually

I’m jumping on that +350 on Toyota for the prop. At $50, that’d pay $175, by my math. Along with Bubba and Denny, Toyota trots out Christopher Bell, who’s due, as well as Martin Truex, who’s so overdue his water will break any lap now.

But I’m taking Toyota’s Tyler Reddick for the win because why not?

Well, there’s his superspeedway record, which suggests (quite loudly) why not.

In plate-races, too often it’s “the other guy,” and while track records and recent history says go with someone else from Toyota, Mr. Hunch is tossing in his other $50 on the No. 45 and hoping little Tyler comes up big.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR Talladega Odds: Denny Hamlin, Bubba Wallace ... and Bob Barker?