NASCAR Odds at Pocono: Chase Elliott has lost the gambler's love; but not Martin Truex
It was a year ago when Chase Elliott won Pocono without leading a lap.
You heard me.
Right about now, he doesn’t care how weird a win might be, as long as there’s a win.
The countdown is now at six — six races left in the regular season, and six chances for Chase to get his first 2023 win and secure a "chip and a chair" at the playoff table.
If you suspect a whiff of desperation may lead to additional horsepower, particularly with a quality team and driver, you’d suspect Chase Elliott is finally ready to get it done Sunday in the Poconos.
Well, someone needs to shout it from the mountain, because the DraftKings odds makers — the same folks who once parked Chase atop the odds board on a weekly basis — have him sitting eighth among the favorites.
So let’s take a stroll through the numbers, but first a reminder on the (current) format here: With a C-note to work with, two bets are allowed — $50 on a potential winner, and the other $50 on a prop bet that tickles the fancy. Or fickles the tancy.
And by the way, if your memory fails, Chase finished third but won last year’s Pocono race after the top two finishers — Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch — failed post-race inspection. And he did it without leading a lap. Man, wonder what the odds would be for something like that this weekend.
FAST, BUSY WEEKEND Racing rarity: From NASCAR to F1, IndyCar and more, all engines are cranked this weekend
Martin Truex has company at the top
Martin Truex Jr. +550; Kyle Busch +550; Denny Hamlin +550; Kyle Larson +750; William Byron +900
How about Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin as co-favorites just because they finished 1-2 at Pocono last year with equipment deemed illegal? Anyone else feel dirty?
Yep, it’s true, Chase Elliott sits eighth
Ryan Blaney +1,100; Ross The Boss Chastain +1,100; Chase Elliott +1,200; Tyler Reddick +1,400; Christopher Bell +1,400; Kevin Harvick +1,600
"Ross The Boss" has mixed in one good finish over the past two-plus months. It was a win, but still, his odds should be taller.
‘Bubble Wallace’ has been solid at Pocono
Daniel Suarez +2,800; Bubba Wallace +2,800; Ty Gibbs +3,500; Brad Keselowski +3,500; Alex Bowman +3,500
Seems like Bowman is too far north on the odds pylon. Bubba is racing with one eye on traffic and the other on that playoff bubble.
NASCAR QNA Martin Truex comfy with a lobster, but not with big decision about future
Some of the rest
Chris Buescher +6,000; Austin Dillon +9,000; Rick Stenhouse Jr. +15,000; Michael McDowell +25,000
Given his steady pace and 2023 improvement, you'd think McDowell would be at a lower price to win. He won't win, but still, a lower price might be warranted.
And all these guys at +100,000
Ty Dillon, Todd Gilliland, Noah Gragson, JJ Yeley, Cole Custer, BJ McLeod
One of these days, this will happen again. I think it's been since Justin Haley won the Coke 400 at Daytona in a thunderstorm. By the way, our $50 allotment for picking the winner would bring $50,000 on one of these dudes. Yep, I've done the math.
Prop ’em up
A few possibilities on the prop-bet front ...
● Chase Elliott is +350 for a top-3 and +160 for a top-5.
● Kez is at +900 and +450 for a top-3 and top-5.
● Kyle Larson (+100) vs. Martin Truex (-135) is among the head-to-head options.
● Another is William Byron (-115) vs. Ross Chastain (-115).
● Among the badges, Chevy is +120, Toyota +140 and Ford +300.
Last week
Well, since you brought it up …
Sweep City. Picked Truex to win, and at +650 it brought a $325 payday.
And in the easiest pick ever, the other $50, for the prop, went with Daniel Suarez over Aric (With an A) Almirola. That was a -115 wager, which means the $50 netted $43.47.
Some more solid math indicates that’s a haul of $368.47. Not sure what folks are paying in today’s strange world, but that used to be a car payment.
This week
I feel like a bit of a fan-boy, but give me Chase at +1,200, which would bring $600 on our $50 allotment.
Man, that prop bet is tempting on a lot of fronts, but I keep landing on Kez, who’s tempting us at +900 for a top-3 and +450 for a top-5.
The gambler wants to take a shot at that top-3, but the hesitant gambler says settle for the top-5. Guess what. Both are gambles.
But gimme Brad Keselowski at +450 on a top-5.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR Odds, Pocono: Chase Elliott needy, Martin Truex favored
