NASCAR betting, odds: Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick are the Bristol dirt favorites

Is it time for a favorite to win the Bristol dirt race?

The first two iterations of the NASCAR Cup Series race on the Bristol dirt (6 p.m. ET, Fox) have seen some relatively surprising winners. Joey Logano led the last 61 laps in 2021 to win the inaugural race and Kyle Busch stole a win a season ago after Tyler Reddick and Chase Briscoe had driven away from everyone else.

The two drivers were by far the fastest over the final run but both went spinning as Briscoe went for the race-winning pass on the final lap. Reddick gathered his car up but Busch was able to barely beat him to the finish line.

Kyle Larson has been the presumptive favorite ahead of each of the first two Bristol dirt races but finished fourth a season ago after he was 29th in the first Bristol race. It seems like a matter of time before Larson wins a Bristol dirt race given his success on dirt in other forms of motorsports.

But the playing field has also been a bit more even than you might expect so far. Sure, drivers with the most dirt experience have an advantage over others, but the gap hasn’t been massive.

Here’s what you need to know to bet Sunday night’s race. All odds are from BetMGM.

The favorites

• Kyle Larson (+500)

• Tyler Reddick (+600)

• Christopher Bell (+700)

• Chase Briscoe (+900)

• Kyle Busch (+1000)

The top four favorites grew up racing on dirt and Busch is one of the best all-around drivers ever, so this is a top five that makes a lot of sense. Don’t sleep on Bell. He was seventh a year ago after he was caught up in a crash in 2021. He’s our pick to win on Sunday.

Good mid-tier value

• Daniel Suarez (+1800)

• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2200)

Stenhouse finished second in the inaugural race and doesn’t have the pressure of going for a make-or-break win thanks to his Daytona 500 victory. Suarez was fourth in the first race and was 12th a year ago.

Don’t bet this driver

• Alex Bowman (+2200)

Bowman has been getting a lot of dirt track experience lately and finished sixth a season ago. But we’re fading him this weekend.

Looking for a long shot?

• Kevin Harvick (+5000)

Harvick was 15th in 2021 and crashed out of the 2022 race. We’re following a simple rule here: Take Harvick at 50-1 odds.