NASCAR betting, odds: Denny Hamlin is one of three drivers at +1200 to win the Daytona 500

Good luck picking the winner of Sunday’s Daytona 500.

No driver has odds better than +1200 to win NASCAR’s biggest race (2:30 p.m. ET, Fox) and 11 drivers have odds at +2000 or lower. Denny Hamlin is the favorite at +1200, but he’s joined at that number by Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney.

Three drivers are at +1400 while two more are at +1600. Overall, 25 drivers have odds of +3300 or better to win on Sunday. It’s clear that oddsmakers believe that lots of drivers have a decent shot to end up in victory lane.

Hamlin makes sense at the top of the board. He’s won three Daytona 500s and tweeted Thursday night that he’s a big fan of his car. If there's a driver to trust up front late in the race, there's no better option.

Elliott is NASCAR’s most popular driver and Blaney has established himself as one of the best drivers at Daytona and Talladega in recent years.

Winning the Daytona 500 has become much more about being in the right position late in the race than it is anything else. Three of the last four races have come down to a green-white-checker two-lap sprint to the finish and all three of those races have been won by the driver who was leading on the restart. Hamlin won in 2019 and 2020 and Austin Cindric led the final eight laps in 2022.

We’re not going to be surprised at all if Sunday’s race also comes down to a two-lap sprint to the finish. And there’s no real safe place to be at Daytona and Talladega. Kyle Busch got crashed from the lead in his Duel race on Thursday night in a type of incident that’s becoming more commonplace than anomaly.

Here’s a quick look at some of the odds for the Daytona 500 at BetMGM.

The contenders

• Denny Hamlin (+1200)

• Chase Elliott (+1200)

• Ryan Blaney (+1200)

• Joey Logano (+1400)

• Kyle Larson (+1400)

• Kyle Busch (+1400)

• William Byron (+1600)

• Ross Chastain (+1600)

• Bubba Wallace (+1800)

• Brad Keselowski (+1800)

• Austin Cindric (+2000)

Elliott and Blaney have never won the Daytona 500 while Daytona and Talladega races have never really been Larson’s forte. Busch is also searching for his first Daytona 500 win. Hamlin, Logano and Cindric are the only three Daytona 500 champions on this list of contenders.

Good value

• Alex Bowman (+2500)

• Christopher Bell (+2800)

• Aric Almirola (+3300)

Bowman’s car is starting first and was by far the fastest in Wednesday night’s qualifying session. Given that his three Hendrick Motorsports teammates are all at +1600 or better to win the race, he’s the best value of the bunch. Bell finished second to Logano in the first Duel and we like him better than we do his teammate Martin Truex Jr. at +2500. Truex seems to have rotten luck at Daytona and Talladega. Almirola won the second Duel on Thursday night and runs well at Daytona and Talladega. He was a mile away from winning the 2018 Daytona 500 before Austin Dillon crashed him into the wall.

Think twice before betting

• Michael McDowell (+3300)

• Jimmie Johnson (+4000)

• Noah Gragson (+4000)

McDowell’s odds would be a lot longer if he didn’t win the 2021 race when Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski crashed while racing for the lead. Johnson hasn’t raced in the Cup Series since the 2020 season and hasn’t won a NASCAR race since 2017. A win would be a heck of a story … and a massive surprise. Gragson has been good at Daytona in the Xfinity Series, but we’d be much more inclined to take a flyer bet at +6600 or so.