NASCAR at Darlington betting preview: How many more drivers will win in 2021?
Goodyear 400
3:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
The number of realistic first-time winners in 2021 is dwindling.
Kyle Busch became the 10th driver to win in the first 11 races when he took the checkered flag on Sunday at Kansas. Busch and those nine other drivers with wins so far in 2021 are provisionally locked into the playoffs.
There are a few other drivers who you can reasonably expect to get a win before the playoffs begin this season. Will those wins happen? And will we be surprised by anyone else getting to Victory Lane?
All 10 of the drivers who have wins this season are in the top 15 of the points standings. At the moment, there’s no real “fluke” winner. Michael McDowell’s win at Daytona was a surprise, but he’s also currently 13th in the points standings. His average finish is better than the likes of Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman.
Of those five drivers in the top 15 without wins, you could confidently argue that three of them will win at some point in 2021. Points leader Denny Hamlin is going to win sooner rather than later. So will Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick, even if Harvick isn’t his dominating self so far this season.
The other two winless drivers in the top 15 are Austin Dillon and Chris Buescher. It wouldn’t be a shock if Dillon got a win before the playoffs — he’s won a race in three of the last four seasons. But he’s led just eight laps so far and has just one top five.
Buescher would be a surprise. He has just two top-10 finishes and hasn’t finished any higher than seventh. He’s racking up points at a decent enough rate to sneak into the playoffs at the moment, but he’s not challenging for any wins.
Barring a win by Buescher — or anyone else not mentioned above — there will likely be 13 or 14 winners over the first 26 races of the season. That would leave at least two spots available in the playoffs for drivers to make it on points. It’s not impossible that 16 or more drivers will win races before the playoffs begin. But it’s still very, very unlikely.
Here’s a look at the betting odds for Sunday’s race at Darlington. As always, those odds are provided by BetMGM.
The favorites
Kyle Larson, +400
Denny Hamlin, +550
Martin Truex Jr., +600
Kevin Harvick, +700
Kyle Busch, +800
Larson takes over favorite status from Hamlin after his speed at intermediate tracks so far this year. Larson led over 100 laps at Kansas but didn’t win. Larson has just one win so far this season but has clearly had the fastest car at tracks similar to Darlington. He also has five top-10 finishes in six races at the egg-shaped track.
Each of the other four drivers on this list have wins at Darlington, though Busch’s win came in 2008. Both Hamlin and Harvick have won three times at Darlington and Truex won the 2016 race at the track.
Good mid-tier value
Alex Bowman, +1800
Ryan Blaney, +2000
Bowman has finished in the top six in two of the three races at Darlington in 2020. He was second to Kevin Harvick and led 41 laps in the spring and was sixth in the fall. Blaney has struggled at Darlington throughout his career but has been one of the faster drivers at intermediate tracks so far this season. And his odds are pretty tempting for a flier.
Don’t bet this driver
Aric Almirola +8000
Almirola’s only two Darlington top 10s came in 2020. He was seventh in May and ninth in the fall, and he also finished 12th at the track last year. But that’s about as close as he’s come to a win at the track and has never led a lap at Darlington in 11 starts.
Looking for a long shot?
Ross Chastain, +25000
Chastain has finished in the top 20 in each of his last four starts since he crashed out of the Bristol dirt race. He’s getting decent finishes despite not scoring any stage points; he’s only gone from 26th to 24th in the standings. Those finishes are worth making a $1 bet on if you’re looking for a big payoff that probably won’t happen.
More from Yahoo Sports:
