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These are the most important 11 games of the rest of the Cincinnati Reds season's life

gordon wittenmyer, cincinnati enquirer
·4 min read
Spencer Steer tags Ketel Marte during the Reds' sweep of the Diamondbacks at home last month.
Spencer Steer tags Ketel Marte during the Reds' sweep of the Diamondbacks at home last month.

ANAHEIM — It’s a long season in baseball?

Not anymore. And especially not for the against-all-odds Cincinnati Reds.

“Any ballgame at this point in the season is huge for us,” said Andrew Abbott, the rookie left-hander who faced Shohei Ohtani in Wednesday’s doubleheader opener.

If that was true in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels, buckle up for a stretch of 11 games in the next 11 days starting with Thursday’s opener of a four-game series in Arizona and concluding with four games in three days against the Chicago Cubs at home over Labor Day weekend. With three against the Giants sandwiched in between.

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“We’re playing a lot of good teams, a lot of teams that we’re fighting for a spot in the postseason against,” said Spencer Steer, who doubled home the go-ahead run in Tuesday’s 4-3 win over the Angels.

And that’s what makes this 11-game stretch probably the most important of the season — certainly the most important of the final 34.

Starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft gave the Reds seven quality innings in their series opener against the Angels, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani Tuesday night. Ashcraft allowed three runs on five hits and struck out 10.
Starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft gave the Reds seven quality innings in their series opener against the Angels, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani Tuesday night. Ashcraft allowed three runs on five hits and struck out 10.

Thanks to the new expanded playoff format that went into effect last season. And the happenstance of the late-season schedule.

“Head-to-head definitely matters,” Abbott said.

Exactly.

Reds fans who endured that 100-loss season in 2022 can be forgiven for not remembering the changes that came with the move to a 12-team playoff format last year, including the fact that one-game playoffs will no longer be used to break ties that determine whether a team makes the playoffs.

No time for such high-minded formalities with the three-game wild-card series squeezed onto the front end of a very long postseason.

That makes these final 11 games against their closest rivals for the National League’s three wild-card berths disproportionately significant — and potentially a make-or-break moment for this very young, upstart Reds team.

“At the end of the day, though, there’s no reason to put more pressure on that kind of situation,” said Abbott, one of 12 rookies on the roster.

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Through Tuesday, the Phillies (69-57), Cubs (65-60) and Diamondbacks (66-61) occupied the top wild-card positions, with the Reds (65-51), Giants (65-61), and Marlins (65-62) all within one game of the Cubs and Diamondbacks.

Even with losing records, the Padres (60-67) and Mets (59-68) were a hot week from potentially joining the fray.

If two teams finish tied for one of the playoff spots, head-to-head record is used as the first tiebreaker. If it’s for the third wild-card berth, that means it’s a loser-out process.

Second tiebreaker is the teams’ records in their own divisions, even if the Reds of the NL Central are tied with, say, the Giants of the NL West.

The Reds have already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Phillies, losing four of seven with no meetings remaining. They’re 3-3 against both the Marlins and Padres and done with those teams, too.

Their records against these next three bunched-up wild-card hopefuls (remaining games in parentheses):

  • Diamondbacks: 3-0 (4)

  • Giants: 2-2 (3)

  • Cubs: 5-4 (4)

(For anybody who thinks the Mets might actually get hot, the Reds are 2-1 against them with three to play next month in New York).

Here’s how the Reds stack up in division play vs. the three potential head-to-head ties (through Tuesday):

  • Reds in NL Central: 16-23 (.410) with 13 remaining

  • Marlins in NL East: 14-19 (.424), 19

  • Padres in NL West: 17-22 (.436), 13

  • Mets in NL East: 19-17 (.528), 16

The third tiebreaker then goes to the teams’ comparative records in the league but outside their own divisions, and then to record breakdowns that get increasingly in the weeds.

Three-way ties are broken by using each team’s record vs. the two others, and so on.

Bottom line is the next 11 might define this Reds season.

“There’s no pressure there,” manager David Bell said.

But maybe an opportunity.

“Absolutely,” Bell said. “Our team has created an opportunity to be talking about that.”

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Why next 11 games might make or break Cincinnati Reds bid for October