What’s more likely: NFL draft Round 1 options
Mike Florio and Peter King debate the likelihood of draft possibilities, such as Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud going No. 1 overall, Jalen Carter going in the Top 5 or falling out of the Top 10 and more.
Video Transcript
- The team that has the first pick is year, courtesy of the trade with the Bears that went down several weeks back on a late Friday afternoon, the Panthers. At number one, what's more likely right now, Bryce Young or CJ Stroud as the first overall pick? And Peter, you're the one that started the push back against Stroud. You've swayed the betting markets, your reporting in others. It went from Bryce Young, favorite. They do the trade. CJ Stroud, favorite. Then after a few weeks, uh-oh, Bryce Young favorite again.
- I certainly didn't attempt to sway anything. I just attempted to write about what I heard, and what I heard is that there are influential voices inside the Panthers who favor Bryce Young. And the one other thing that I had heard during the course of this process is before Josh McCown, now the quarterback coach of the Carolina Panthers, was hired by the Carolina Panthers, that he was raving to friends in the NFL about Bryce Young and about what a good NFL quarterback he was going to be.
And you know, Mike, this week I had a conversation with Archie Manning, who's got a new show on ESPN about the young quarterbacks and the quarterbacks coming into this draft, and their first show was about Bryce Young. And he said a few things about how the game has changed since he played, and certainly since Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were dueling to be the number one pick 25 years ago this week, in fact.
But his whole point was that you need to be a distributor of the football. You need to be an assist man. And if you at the quarterback position are really smart and you understand how to distribute the ball, then that overcomes a lot of the size thing. And again, look, I've also had teams tell me-- and I do think that Bryce Young is going to be the first pick, but I've also had teams tell me that defending against Bryce Young is going to be difficult, but you got to get big defensive linemen who are going to hit the quarterback. So it's going to be uncharted waters, particularly going to a team that has a building, but not great offensive line right now.
- You made a fascinating point this week in "Football Morning in America." If Bryce Young does go to Carolina twice per year, he'll now see Calais Campbell, who is 10 inches taller and 110 pounds heavier than Bryce Young. The physics are not in your favor, as we've learned with Tua Tagovailoa. That's a reason for some to shy away from Bryce Young, but I agree with you, Peter. It just feels like right now it's inevitable.
Chris Simms had a great point this week. All these reports pointing toward Bryce Young, part of the process of getting the Carolina Panthers' fan base ready for what's coming because the momentum was CJ Stroud. The presumption was Stroud. You better get people in a position where they know what's going to happen so they're not stunned 13 days from now when that name is announced by the commissioner to start the process. What's more likely, Jalen Carter, the controversial Georgia defensive tackle goes top five or falls out of the top 10? What's more likely?
- That is the question of the week, and obviously, as I wrote the other day, Mike, Jalen Carter visited two teams that could be fascinating landing spots for him this week. One, number five, the Seattle Seahawks. One, number seven, the Las Vegas Raiders. And I think you can't know whether these teams are going to pick this player until he actually comes in and he spends time with you and you look him in the face and talk to him.
I am going to say that he falls out of the top five. Without any knowledge, I think the big team in the top five is Seattle. Pete Carroll has always been willing to take on guys who other coaches might consider risky behavior players. And so, I think if Pete Carroll looks John Schneider in the face and says let's not even move.
Let's take the best overall player in this draft, Jalen Carter, and let's team him with our young cadre of really good front seven players and our three-headed monster at safety, and we will have the best defense that we could possibly have, and we will be able to compete defensively right now. With Bobby Wagner back, and with Jalen Carter, and signing Julian Love, we'll be able to compete with the San Francisco 49ers for the best defense in this division.
- Here's the question, though. Pete Damilatis likes to do this to us. He takes out the middle because I think you and I would both be inclined to pick the middle six to 10. Between the two options, top five or out of the top 10 altogether, which one would you say is more likely? Do you think he slides out of the top 10, that that's more likely than Seattle taking him at five?
- No. I don't. I don't think he slides out of the top 10. I think somebody is either going to trade up to get him, or whether it be Philadelphia-- even though a lot of people have raised Philadelphia as a possibility, and I understand that. It certainly does make sense, especially after losing a similar kind of player in Javon Hargrave.
But I just keep thinking to myself. You took Jordan Davis 14th overall last year, a very similar body type to Jalen Carter, a similar kind of invasive player, and it's just hard for me to accept Howie Roseman picking the same guy basically at 14 and 10 two years in a row.
- I do think that-- and there's different schools of thought here. Once Jalen Carter began to decline visits to teams not in the top 10, some thought that this was just a parlor trick by his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, to speak it into existence a top 10 pick. The other possibility is he's already gotten an assurance from someone he trusts. He's been doing this 35 years. You have to have relationships founded on trust in this business, and that he trusts the information he's gotten that someone is definitely taking him in the top 10 if he's there.
So I think he wouldn't be attending the draft if they didn't firmly believe he's going in the top 10. That, to me, when I saw his name on the list, that told me this guy's going top 10. So I'd say it's more likely he goes top five then he falls out of the top 10, and there's a fascinating team to watch in the top 10. I was on 93.7 "The Fan" in Pittsburgh this week, and they mentioned to me there was a report out of Chicago that the Bears and the Steelers are talking about a flip-flop of number nine and number 17. And on the surface, Jalen Carter doesn't seem like the kind of guy that Mike Tomlin would want, but at a deeper level--
- Yes, he does.
- --and I think back of all the guys who have left Pittsburgh over the years. When they go play for other coaches and those coaches say, my god, I had no idea what a problem this guy was going to be, Mike Tomlin found a way to speak to his better angels and get the most out of him. I mean, Jalen Carter is exactly the lump of clay that Mike Tomlin could take. And given his unique style and his underrated ability to get the most out of every player who's on his team, he's the guy who could get Jalen Carter to maximize his potential.
- Hey look, I would argue that-- and again, both of these points are a little bit overrated and a little bit maybe over speaking, but I would argue that Mike Tomlin got Hall of Fame careers out of two difficult players to handle, borderline Hall of Fame careers at least, and that's James Harrison, even though Harrison had been with different coaches and all that, and I understand it, but also Antonio Brown.
And so, I think that Mike Tomlin has the ability to look at players for their abilities and he figures it's my job to sometimes take the massive headaches that go along with these players. Now, I can't think of a better place for Jalen Carter than to go and play for Mike Tomlin. It's beyond perfect because, look, Mike Tomlin understands that.
You know, Mike, you always want to know what is the most important thing, OK? And remember in "City Slickers" when the old cowboy just held up one finger. You got to figure out what's the most important thing. What is it, Curly? What is the most important thing. Well, only you know that, and I think Mike Tomlin understands that better than any coach in the NFL.
What's the most important thing? Sunday at 1:00 PM at Acrisure Field. I almost called it Heinz Field. Sunday at 1:00 PM on the field for those three hours, that is the most important thing, and Mike Tomlin will understand that if they end up loving Jalen Carter, and he will figure it out. And I just I think that's the perfect place for him to go.
- And when the Steelers trade up, they're trading up because there's somebody they really love and there's somebody they really want, Troy Polamalu, for example, a guy who became a Hall of Famer there. So something to keep an eye on with Jalen Carter. Either way, I don't think he gets out of the top 10.