Mookie Betts' return to Fenway exposed Red Sox's lack of ambition
The Red Sox traded a future Hall of Famer for a mercurial outfielder, a time-share catcher and a prospect who was deemed a failure after just 14 games in their uniform.
That was the backdrop to the return of Mookie Betts to Fenway Park this weekend.
It’s less about the passage of time over four years and more concerning the original sin committed by chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. That he acted at the behest of ownership is to invite skepticism regarding Boston’s entire organizational operation entering the final full month of the 2023 season.
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Betts had his fingerprints all over a Friday night win in the series opener and bashed a two-run homer to the Monster Seats to help take Sunday’s finale. He went 3-for-6 and missed driving in the tying run by a few feet in the middle game on Saturday. Standing ovations, "Mookie" chants and the adulation that welcomes a returning great followed him throughout.
How and why he departed the Red Sox in February 2020 has passed into folklore. Boston had to trade him for financial flexibility, he didn’t want to be here long term, Los Angeles made for a more comfortable home over the next decade — perception was always going to influence your viewpoint on the matter. Ultimately, Betts signed a 12-year, $365-million extension with the Dodgers just a few months after being sent west with David Price and cash for Alex Verdugo, Connor Wong and Jeter Downs.
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Betts was intent on going to free agency after the Red Sox lost their arbitration case with him entering 2018 and failed to reach a deal with him going into 2020. Boston failed to match what Betts determined was his value — his FanGraphs wins above replacement from his 2014 debut through 2019 trailed only Mike Trout. The Angels outfielder inked his own 12-year, $426.5-million extension prior to that 2019 campaign — Betts received a sum of guaranteed money that trails only Trout in the game’s history to date.
The ensuing four years have seen the Red Sox underachieve with respect to their market size and resources available. Last place in 2020, an unlikely American League Championship Series appearance in 2021 and last place again in 2022 falls well below standard. Boston entered Sunday’s series finale with Los Angeles closer to the floundering Yankees than the first-place Orioles — the Red Sox could well miss the postseason again, falling shy of an inflated field that includes six of the 15 teams in the A.L.
Boston’s new core tenet is value? OK, Betts was worth 6.5 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs in 2022, and sat at 7.0 wins above replacement in 2023 entering Saturday afternoon. His total of 20.1 fWAR in just under four seasons with the Dodgers was more than double the amount credited to Verdugo (7.5), Wong (1.4) and Downs (-0.3) combined.
Want to frame it in financial terms? Fine. Betts counts for $29 million annually against the Competitive Balance Tax through the life of his extension. Trevor Story and Rafael Devers have been worth 9.9 fWAR over the last two seasons while bringing in a combined $75.3 million against the CBT — 3.6 fewer wins and $17.3 million more in counting money.
That comparison grows steeper in 2024 when Devers receives the raise that coincides with his 10-year extension. His annual hit against the CBT will jump to $29.1 million — more than Betts alone. And there remains no guarantee the Red Sox will be any closer to contention than they find themselves late this August.
This nebulous internal timeline has turned off a significant portion of the Boston fan base. Just look at the way Dodger Blue overran the Back Bay this weekend. The Red Sox remain more than 9% off their average home crowd from 2019, and that’s at a time when attendance throughout the game is up by roughly 9.2% from 2022 to 2023.
Is there genuine help on the way? It depends on how much you believe in the unproven. Boston’s farm system splits opinions — top five according to FanGraphs, 16th according to MLB Pipeline. Triston Casas was the club’s top organizational talent according to SoxProspects.com from July 2019 through July 2022, and he’s 17th in fWAR among qualifying first basemen in his 2023 debut.
Could Casas grow in terms of impact in the coming years? Of course. But are we really waiting until later in the 2020s to see if the next wave of players — Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Nick Yorke, Shane Drohan, Brandon Walter, Enmanuel Valdez, Bryan Mata, David Hamilton, Wilyer Abreu — will eventually be worthwhile? The Red Sox aren’t a finishing school, and they certainly shouldn’t be a place to learn on the job after what could be a lone playoff berth in four years.
It remains a stunning lack of organizational ambition. Boston pivoted to a model that has won zero championships in Tampa Bay and one in Los Angeles — the Dodgers, in capturing that lone title since 1988, leaned heavily on Betts to ultimately break through. Los Angeles came to Boston for the World Series in 2018 viewed as a collection of postseason chokers, and the Dodgers skulked out of town after living up to the billing on two cold fall nights.
The Red Sox should be so fortunate to earn a similarly derisive designation anytime soon.
On X: @BillKoch25
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Mookie Betts' return to Fenway shined a light on Red Sox's lack of ambition
