MLB Hot Stove Lowdown: Dodgers continue to steal headlines with Tyler Glasnow trade
After last week's Ohtani soap opera and record breaking contract, one might have throught that the Dodgers would cool things down. Well, you would have been wrong. The continue to steal headlines as well as add to waht could have been considered an all-star team. We'll discuss all things Dodgers plus all the other news that happened this week. Let's jump in!
Dodgers, Rays link up as Dodgers rotation gets stronger
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Dodgers are acquiring right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from the Rays for right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca. Passan also added that the deal is contingent on Tyler Glasnow, free agent to be after the 2024 season, signing an extension with Los Angeles. The Dodgers have seemingly stolen nearly all of the winter headlines which include the Ohtani deal (and those massive referrals!), sending a contingent of Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddy Freeman to meet free agent right hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and now the Glasnow trade. While the trade hasn’t been completed it is expected that Glasnow will put his name on the dotted line.
Glasnow, a Santa Clarita, California native, has serious injury concerns but is coming off a season where he tossed 120 innings, the most as a major leaguer. If he can stay healthy, he has all the makings of a frontline starter and he’ll join Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller as a three-headed monster fronting the Dodgers rotation. This month, he has an ADP of 42.67 as the 12th pitcher off the board, right between Zac Gallen and Aaron Nola. The Rays were regularly allowing him to pitch into the sixth and seventh innings this season, so it safe to expect the Dodgers to do the same. Manuel Margot is an interesting get and he will slide in the short side of the platoon in right field with Jason Heyward, which all but kills his fantasy value.
With the trade of yet another superstar, the Rays acquired to young and intriguing players, with plenty of team control left. Ryan Pepiot, missed most of the 2023 season with an oblique injury but was outstanding once he returned to the Dodgers rotation. The 26-year-old right-hander posted a 2.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 38/5 K/BB ratio over 42 innings (eight appearances). He breakout season can be contributed to his improved command. He fooled more batters outside the strike zone and his 3.1% walk rate is far and away the best of his career. The Rays, and Dodgers for that matter, have been able to get the most out of their pitchers so it would be a bit foolish to expect Pepiot to improve but he could provide plenty of innings at a cheap cost. Pepiot has an ADP of 209.67 and is the 84th pitcher selected, right between Braxton Garrett and Brandon Pfaadt.
With the move, we will likely see a bump up in ADP, since he is in a headline making trade, but it should be slight downgrade, especially from a wins prospective. Jonny Deluca is a great defender with outstanding speed and will likely platoon with Josh Lowe, who should start against right-handed pitching. The 25-year-old has hit everywhere he has been and has a pull heavy approach. Last year at Triple-A and the majors, he pulled the ball 50.8% and 61.8% percent of the time and we can all ask Isaac Paredes how that approach worked with the Rays this season.
Royals adds Seth Lugo to their rotation
The Royals and free-agent right-hander agreed to a three-year, $45 million contract in a pairing that I definitely didn't have on my bingo card. The deal was the fourth-largest contract that the Royals have signed, coming in right behind Alex Gordon, Ian Kennedy, and Gil Meche. From a real-life perspective, it is an excellent signing for a perpetually rebuilding Kansas City ball club. Last season, the top five pitchers in games started were Jordan Lyles (31 starts), Brady Singer (29 starts), Zack Greinke (27 starts), Cole Ragans (12 starts), and Brad Keller (9 starts). Seth Lugo only became a starter last season after spending five seasons mainly coming out of the bullpen in Citi Field. After signing a two-year contract with the Padres, the right-hander posted a respectable 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 140/36 K/BB ratio over 146 ⅓ innings. He began his career as a starter with the Mets, but many were surprised a 33-year-old who hadn’t started a game in over two seasons could produce as well as he did.
Looking under the hood, Lugo’s skill set is concerning. He averaged 5 ⅔ innings per start and failed to reach the fifth inning on four occasions. In a strange bit of fate, his worst start of the year was against the Royals, when he lasted two innings while allowing five earned runs. The move from pitcher-friendly Petco Park to the hitter-friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium could also decrease his production this season. While Kauffman Stadium is one of the largest ballparks by square footage and has the seventh-highest wOBA allowed. Due to the park's size and foul territory, it is the second-worst park for strikeouts, which could dramatically hurt Lugo, who posted a 23.2 percent strikeout rate last season with the Padres.
While the veteran right-hander won only eight games last season, Steamer is projecting him to get one more while starting two more games for the Royals. Over the last month, 12 NFBC Draft Champion leagues have completed drafting, and Lugo is the 109th pitcher (starters and relievers are lumped together), with a minimum pick of 245 and an average pick of 274. With this news, he will surely be going higher in drafts, but be aware that the wins and strikeouts could be less than you expected if he signed with another ball club.
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Giants adds “Grandson of the Wind” to their outfield
The Giants finally landed a big-time free agent after falling short in the Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, and Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes. The Giants and free-agent outfielder Jung Hoo Lee agreed to a six-year, $113 million contract. The contract includes an opt-out after four years. In Korea, Lee is a superstar. He won Rookie of the Year in 2017, the Most Valuable Player in 2022, and five consecutive Gold Glove Awards while posting a slash line of .340/.407/.491 in his seven-year career with the Kiwoom Heroes. Lee is contact over power hitter, posting strikeout rates below 6.8 percent and walking at a double-digit clip in his final three seasons with the Heroes. He played 86 games during the 2023 season after fracturing his ankle, which required season-ending surgery.
At the moment. Lee is by far the best defensive center fielder in the Giants outfield. Last year, ten players started at least one game in center, with Luis Matos and Mike Yastrzemski leading the pack with 48 and 44 games, respectively. While defensive stats are viewed as a flawed metric, Baseball Savant Outs Above Average (OAA) is considered one of the best in the public sphere. According to OAA, Mike Yastrzemski posted 1 OAA, while Matos registered a -5 OAA. While we don’t have OAA, Sports Info Solutions, who uses Defensive Runs Saves (DRS), reported that Lee posted a nine DRS in his injury-shortened season last year. This signing will surely help Giants pitchers, which could help youngsters Kyle Harrison and Tristan Beck both who posted above 39 percent fly ball rates and above 19 percent line drive rates.
From a hitting perspective, Lee’s calling card is contact, contact, contact. He has an all-fields approach but hits the ball nearly 60 percent of the time. Players with similar GB/FB rates include DJ LeMahieu, Jeremy Peña, and Masataka Yoshida, all of whom have posted higher average and max exit velocities. Also, calling Oracle Park home for half of his games isn’t going to help his home run total as it is the fourth worst in baseball. Lee has above-average speed but uses it to take an extra base instead of stealing bases. He might have one of the best nicknames in baseball, “Grandson of the Wind” and he earned it after his father Jong-Beom Lee was tagged with the nickname “Son of the Wind” after swiping 84 bases, which is a KBO record during his 1994 MVP season. It remains to be seen if Lee will change his game when he comes stateside, but fantasy managers shouldn’t expect double-digit steals in his rookie campaign. Further decreasing his fantasy baseball stock, Roster Resource has Lee projected to hit seventh in the Giants' batting order, significantly diminishing his ability to rack up counting stats. From a real-life perspective, this is an excellent signing for the Giants, but fantasy managers should be wary of coughing up a high draft pick on the 25-year-old outfielder.
Mets and Pirates reel from catastrophic injuries to young players
While playing winter ball, Mets prospect Ronny Mauricio and Pirates catcher Endy Rodríguez suffered what could be season-ending injuries. Mauricio tore the UCL in his right knee this week while attempting to steal second base and is expected to undergo surgery in the coming days. While Mets haven’t announced if the 22-year-old will miss the entire season, but he will undoubtedly miss a significant chunk of the 2024 campaign. Mauricio played in the Dominican Winter League exclusively at third base as the Mets looked to fill in a massive hole defensively at the hot corner. The infielder was having an excellent start this winter, hitting .433/.452/.667 across 31 plate appearances. New York’s plan this spring was to have Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos to have a three-way competition to see who would snag the lion's share of the playing time at third base. Mauricio has second-base experience, which would allow Jeff McNeil to play in an outfield corner. Now David Sterns and Co. can rip those plans to shreds.
Mark Vientos has been working on this defense with Francisco Lindor at the star’s home in Puerto Rico, which could help his chances of unseating Brett Baty this spring. Both players struggled mightily in 2023, Baty hit .212/.275/.323 while Vientos slashed .211/.253/.367. However, newly signed Joey Wendle could throw a wrinkle into the Mets’ plans if he comes to spring training and hits well. From a fantasy perspective, none of the players should be drafted in standard mixed leagues, but they could make an interesting flyer in NL-only leagues.
The Pirates announced this week that young backstop Endy Rodríguez underwent surgery to repair his UCL and flexor tendon in his throwing arm. He suffered the injury while swinging a bat during a winter ball game in the Dominican Republic. He was the presumptive favorite to be the Pirates catcher on Opening Day but will now miss all of 2024. After an outstanding 2022 season, Rodriguez skyrocketed past former first-overall pick Henry Davis to become the top-catching prospect in Pittsburgh. The 23-year-old debuted this summer but struggled greatly, hitting just .220/.284/.328 across 204 plate appearances. Before the injury, Pirates GM Ben Cherington told reporters that Davis was expected to see extended run behind the dish but I’m sure that this is not how Cherington and the Pirates envisioned that happening. How long an “extended run” is remains to be seen. Like Rodriguez, Davis struggled in his debut season, slashing .213/.302/.351 across 255 plate appearances. Coming into the 2024 season, Davis will only be outfield eligible as he exclusively played right field in the majors in 2023. He will likely gain catcher eligibility early on in the season, but it will be interesting to see how much run he will get behind the dish. The Pirates have a 40-man roster full of defensive-minded catcher types, like Jason Delay and Ali Sanchez, who could eat into Davis’ playing time at catcher.
Rowdy Tellez finds a new home in the NL Central
After the Brewers non-tendered Rowdy Tellez this fall, the Pirates sailed in and signed the slugging first baseman to a one-year, $3.2 million contract, which includes more than $800,000 in incentives. Tellez is coming off his worst season in his professional career, hitting just .215/.291/.376 across 351 plate appearances. The 28-year-old landed on the injured list with a right forearm strain in early July, and as he set to return, he injured his ring finger while shagging flies in the outfield. The freak injury had to undergo surgery to repair a small fracture, which caused him to miss an additional three weeks of playing time.
The move is interesting for the Pirates, who annually seem to be looking for an answer at the cold corner. Last season, they inked veteran Carlos Santana to a one-year, $6.725 contract and flipped him at the deadline to the Brewers for shortstop prospect Jhonny Severino. Tellez will likely be on the strong side of a platoon, with Connor Joe or Jared Triolo pitching in when there is a southpaw on the mound. It’s a relatively low-risk move for the Pirates as Tellez is one season removed from hitting .219/.306/.461 with 35 homers across 599 plate appearances with the Brew Crew. Currently, in NFBC DCs, which are 50-round, draft-and-hold leagues, Tellez has an ADP of 517, which will surely rise now that he has a job and could make a sneaky late-round flyer for a team seeking power.
Rangers bank on future production from Tyler Mahle
On Thursday night, the World Champion Texas Rangers announced they signed free agent right-hander Tyler Mahle to a two-year, $22 million contract. The 29-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery in May and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season. From a timeline perspective, former teammate Chris Paddack had Tommy John surgery on May 18, 2022, and returned to the bump late in the year, tossing 17 ⅔ innings for Minnesota.
Before going under the knife, Mahle was pitching well for the Twins, posting a 3.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 28/5 K/BB ratio across 25 ⅔ innings. While he will unlikely be helpful for fantasy managers this season, it is a smart signing for the reigning champions. Max Scherzer and Andrew Heaney are free agents after the 2024 season, while Nathan Eovaldi has an option that vests if the right-hander throws 300 innings from 2023 through 2024. The 33-year-old threw 144 innings last year, so he will have to toss at least 156 innings to secure his spot on the Rangers' 2025 squad. When Eovaldi shakes his lucky Magic Eight Ball, I’m sure he’ll see “Outlook not so good” when he asks about the chances of his option vesting. As I see it, the Rangers' rotation going into the 2025 season will be Jacob deGrom (remember him?), Tyler Mahle, and Jon Gray, with prospects Jack Leiter and Owen White possibly making a run at a spot or two.
Tigers add another veteran pitcher to their young staff
The Tigers and free agent right-hander Jack Flaherty agreed to a one-year, $14 million contract on Thursday night. The deal also includes incentives based on how many games he starts. He will earn an extra $250,000 if he starts 26 and 28 games and then $500,000 if he starts 30 games Thought to be one of the up and coming starters a handful seasons ago, the now 27-year-old has been plagued by shoulder injuries the past few seasons. His best season was in 2019 when posted a 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 231/55 K/BB ratio across 196 ⅓ innings. Since then, his velocity has steadily declined and average 93 ⅔ MPH in 2023. His season was split between two ball clubs, Cardinals and Orioles, registering a 4.99 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 148/66 K /BB ratio across 144 ⅓ innings.
He will now get a fresh start with the Tigers and the pitcher-friendly confines shouldn’t hinder his performance and he joins a rotation of Tarik Skubal, Kenta Maeda, Matt Manning, and Reese Olson with Casey Mize and Sawyer Gibson-Long waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Due to his talent and age, it is a great bet for the Tigers to make in what seems like a very winnable AL Central division. From a fantasy perspective, it seems unwise to make the same gamble, unless your league is a 12-teamer or smaller, that way you can easily pick up another starter off the waiver wire if he continues to struggle or is injured.
MLB Quick Hits: Guardians signed RHP Ben Lively to a one-year $750K contract… Royals signed RHP Chris Stratton to a one-year, $3.5 million contract, including a $4.5 million player option for 2025… Red Sox signed RHP Cooper Criswell to a one-year, $1 million contract… Wes Benjamin re-signed with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization… Yoshinobu Yamamoto has met with the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Phillies… Red Sox signed INF/OF Jamie Westbrook to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training… Angels signed LHP D.J. Snelten to a minor league contract…Brewers finalized a one-year contract with RHP Joe Ross… Brewers signed Rob Zastryzny to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training…Zack Greinke is preparing to pitch in 2024… Nationals designate INF Jeter Downs for assignment… Nationals signed RHP Dylan Floro to a one-year $2.25 million contract…Andrew Stevenson signed with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball… Dodgers and Rays are discussing a trade that would send Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot to Los Angeles for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny Deluca…Daniel Castano has signed with the NC Dinos of the Kores Baseball Organization…Braves sent INF David Fletcher outright to Triple-A Gwinnett…Veteran RHP Tommy Hunter has retired from professional baseball after a 16-year career… Dodgers re-signed RHP Daniel Hudson to a minor league contract…Tigers re-signed RHP Freddy Pacheco to a minor league contract… White Sox designated RHP Yohan Ramírez for assignment… Rays signed RHP Zac Houston to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training… Cubs signed C Jorge Alfaro to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training… Red Sox signed C Roberto Pérez to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training… Mets signed OF Trayce Thompson to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training…MLB will hold its first ever “Spring Breakout”, which will showcase prospects from all 30 organizations, with each team facing off against another…Shohei Ohtani can opt out of his 10-year contract if controlling owner Mark Walter or POBO Andrew Friedman lose their roles with the team… Angels signed RHP Adam Cimber to a one-year, $1.65 million contract…Angels signed Luis García to a one-year, $4.25 million contract… Dietrich Enns has signed with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization… Austin Dean has re-signed with the LG Twins of the Korea Baseball Organization… Clayton Kershaw said in a radio interview that he is doing well in his recovery from offseason shoulder surgery…Mets signed Cam Robinson to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training… Blue Jays have express interest in free agent J.D. Martinez… Brewers acquired RHP Taylor Clarke for INF Cam Cevanney and RHP Ryan Brady…. Yankees signed LHP Oddanier Mosqueda to a minor league contract… Reds designated OF TJ Hopkins for assignment… Reds signed C Austin Wynns to a one-year, $950K contract… Shohei Ohtani told reporters that his elbow surgery was completely different from Tommy John he had in 2018… Yankees signed RHP Duane Underwood to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training… Pirates acquired OF Billy McKinney for international bonus pool money.
