Will Missouri State finally have its breakthrough? Biggest questions before 2023-24 season
Missouri State men's basketball is days away from its first exhibition game and begins its 2023-24 season next week.
There are a handful of questions heading into the season that will determine if the Bears will play up to their potential or if it will be another year without cutting down nets.
The Bears host Westminster in an exhibition game at 7 p.m. Thursday before they travel to West Virginia on Nov. 6 for their season opener. Here are the biggest questions we have heading into the season.
Can Chance Moore be who Missouri State needs him to be?
The Bears have a rising star in Moore and they know it. The former four-star prospect and transfer from Arkansas showed flashes last season that he can be the guy Missouri State needs him to be and this is the year to show it.
Bears coach Dana Ford has said since the summer that Moore will be on the floor more than he was last year when the 6-foot-6 junior guard was an MVC All-Bench performer while averaging 10.6 points with three starts in 31 games.
Moore's offense has never been in question. Ford said he's seen the guard take a step forward in his strength and conditioning in addition to his defensive awareness. Moore is going to play plenty when his minutes fluctuated a bit throughout last season.
"I think if we are going to be as good as we can be, which our team can be really good, then Chance Moore has to be an all-league and even probably a Player of the Year-type of guy," Ford said. "There's no doubt that he could do that. The question then becomes if he is willing to navigate through that process and what it entails. I feel confident that he will and he's going to be a big part of what we're doing moving forward."
How big of a difference will a healthy Matthew Lee make?
Ford hasn't had a healthy starting point guard for an entire season since his first year coaching the Bears when Texas Tech grad transfer Josh Webster led a team that overachieved to a fourth-place finish in the Valley. His bad luck continued last year when Saint Peter's transfer Matthew Lee tore his ACL midway through the second half of his second game in a Bears uniform.
Lee is back and is set to be the Bears' starting point guard. He said he feels 100% and Ford has said he's ahead of schedule. The Bears will ease him in while also knowing they have a capable sophomore in Damien Mayo Jr., who can run the show if needed.
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Lee's return gives the Bears a veteran presence running their offense. He was the point guard for the Saint Peter's team that made a run to the Elite Eight two seasons ago. He also allows others to play their more natural positions instead of having to step in at the point, like Alston Mason did a year ago or when Lu'Cye Patterson had to fill in for Demarcus Sharp the year before.
"Matthew is a guy who can really create, not only for himself," Ford said. "It allows Alston to play his natural position, which will help us tremendously. It also allows Donnie to then go up against bigger players where he can now have an advantage."
In a way, Lee should be the Bears' most impactful newcomer to the Bears' lineup, as long as he can stay on the court.
Will the loss of Jonathan Mogbo's defensive abilities matter much?
No matter who the Bears brought in to replace Jonathan Mogbo, who transferred to San Francisco, we were going to wonder how much of an impact Mogbo's departure would have on the defensive end. Mogbo was a great rebounder and was a very versatile piece of MSU's defense. That was going to be tough to replace.
Xavier transfer Cesare Edwards will likely step into the role, although he is praised more for his offensive abilities. N.J. Benson will go into his sophomore year with a toned-up body and figures to have a larger role in his second year.
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Time will tell if Mogbo's departure will have that big of an impact on what Ford wants his defense to do.
"Defense is a total team effort and we may not be able to cover certain things in a certain way because of his versatility," Ford said. "There's still a million other ways to get the same goal. We'll focus more on what this group is good at defensively as opposed to last year and what that group was really good at."
How many players will Dana Ford depend on for most of the season?
In Missouri State's Arch Madness win over Illinois Chicago last year, Ford had four players play 30 minutes or more with one playing 28 and another playing 20. He didn't go that deep into the bench much last year, unless forced to by foul trouble, and playing time for several of the Bears' younger players was sporadic throughout the season.
That followed two years of Ford mainly using a seven-man rotation. We've seen how Ford tends to use the players who are playing the hardest and doing what they're supposed to do defensively while not seeing much of the others unless situations demand the Bears to go deeper.
With the way Ford has talked this preseason, there is a handful you would assume Ford plans on playing heavily going into the year — Lee, Moore, Clay, Mason, Mayo, Edwards and Benson. That's seven players when you look at the roster and assume there's the possibility of more.
More: Dana Ford teases starters, breakouts heading into 2023-24 Missouri State basketball season
Davion Hill is one to keep an eye on as a true freshman from Williamsport, Pennslyvania. He's praised for his effort on the court and in practice. He's one who will make hustle plays. The way he's talked about reminds you of how the Bears spoke of Isaac Haney when he wore a Bears uniform. That's the type of player Ford likes to play and could earn his way onto the court.
Tyler Bey is a 6-8 freshman guard players have loved to talk about early in the preseason because of his offensive game. Ford put a damper on Bey's expectations going into the year because he's not yet defending at the level Ford would like to see. If he's not playing, you figure it has something to do with trust defensively.
Nick Kramer can't be forgotten as he starts the year on the bench with an undisclosed injury that might keep him out until December. He's the 3-point specialist the Bears went out and got this offseason. He might be needed but he's also young and you have to consider what he can do defensively.
Can the Bears avoid the really bad non-conference loss?
A staple of the past few years has been a bad non-conference loss that puts a bad taste in fans' mouths to either start the season or right before Missouri Valley Conference play.
2022-23 - Purdue Fort Wayne (65-61)
2021-22 - Southeast Missouri State (99-94)
2020-21 - Limited non-conference schedule during pandemic
2019-20 - Little Rock (67-66)
All of those games came at home with the first two losses coming on opening nights. The Bears had no business losing any of those games.
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There isn't really a marquee game at home this season with non-conference limited to a matchup with an Oral Roberts team that saw its coach leave and best player transfer elsewhere, a post-Thanksgiving game against South Carolina State (not the SEC's South Carolina), a solid Sam Houston squad out of the WAC and Lindenwood heading into its second year playing Division I basketball in the Ohio Valley Conference.
Fans are going to expect the Bears to be unbeaten in those games and then challenge for a championship in its MTE at the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam. Losses to West Virginia and Saint Mary's would probably be the two fans would be the most forgiving over.
Can Missouri State win conference games with championship implications down the stretch?
The Bears have had themselves in position to compete for Missouri Valley Conference championships late in recent seasons but haven't been able to win the games they need the most. The Bears are talented enough to find themselves in similar situations come February.
The 2021-22 season was the latest chance for the Bears to win the league before finishing in a three-way tie for third. They lost 95-75 at Northern Iowa during the final week of the season and finished a game behind the Panthers for the league title.
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In 2020-21, the Bears finished third in the COVID-impacted season but went a combined 0-4 against the two teams that finished ahead of them — all coming at home over a four-game span in the middle of the conference season.
The Bears weren't in the mix in 2019-20 but had a chance at winning the league in Ford's first year as head coach in 2018-19. They lost their final two games of the regular season and finished two games behind Loyola and Drake for the top spot.
You'd hope Missouri State will find its way into some of these big-game situations by the end of the season. The Bears haven't been able to get it done down the stretch since they won the league in 2011.
Will this finally be the year the Bears breakthrough?
It's been since 1999. Fans have waited long enough for the Bears to finally break through and make it back to the NCAA tournament.
Many feel like the Bears have the talent to be a competitor in the end and that it's only about health and putting the team in the right position to get it done.
It could be the same story as previous years. The Bears win the games they're supposed to, lose a few they shouldn't and then lose a close game at Arch Madness. Or it could all finally come together the way fans have dreamt of since Ford promised championships from the day he took the job.
Wyatt D. Wheeler is a reporter and columnist with the Springfield News-Leader. You can contact him at 417-371-6987, by email at wwheeler@news-leader.com or X at @WyattWheeler_NL. He's also the host of the weekly "Wyatt's World Podcast" on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and other podcasting platforms
This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Missouri State men's basketball biggest questions before 2023-24
