Midterm Elections 2022: Predictions for Senate seats up for election
Political predictions
(USAT)
One of the most highly watched —and dissected and forecasted—battles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. As of now, it’s considered a toss-up, where the control could either go to the Republicans or the Democrats.
There are currently 35 seats up for grabs— 21 Republican-held and 14 Democrat-held—with several key states most likely set to determine the outcome. Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada are the prime game-changers.
With the end of October nearing, here are the predictions for each state with those Senate seats up for election, per FiveThirtyEight.
Alabama
(USAT)
Katie Britt (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Alaska
(Jack Gruber-USA TODAY)
Lisa Murkowski (Rep.): 50% chance of winning
Kelly C. Tshibaka (Rep.): 40% chance of winning
Arkansas
(Beth Hall-USA TODAY Sports)
John Boozman (Rep.): 99% chance of winning.
Arizona
(USAT)
Mark Kelly (Dem.) 69% chance of winning
Blake Maters (Rep.): 31% chance of winning
California
(Democratic National Convention via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Alex Padilla (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
Colorado
(USA TODAY Network)
Michael Bennet (Dem.): 88% percent chance of winning
Connecticut
(John Shishmanian/ NorwichBulletin.com)
Richard Blumenthal (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
Florida
(USAT)
Marco Rubio (Rep.): 93% chance of winning
Georgia
(USAT)
Herschel Walker (Rep): 52% chance of winning
Raphael Warnock (Dem.): 48% chance of winning
Hawaii
(Photo by Anna Rose Layden/Getty Images)
Brian Schatz (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
Idaho
(Hannah Gaber-USA TODAY)
Mike Crapo (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Illinois
(Democratic National Convention via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Tammy Duckworth (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
Indiana
(USAT)
Todd Young (Rep.): 97% chance of winning
Iowa
(USAT)
Chuck Grassley (Rep.): 95% chance of winning
Kansas
(USAT)
Jerry Moran (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Kentucky
(USAT)
Rand Paul (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Louisiana
(Jack Gruber-USA TODAY)
John Kennedy (Rep.): 93% chance of winning
Maryland
(Jasper Colt-USA TODAY)
Chris Van Hollen (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
Missouri
(USAT)
Eric Schmitt (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Nevada
(Photo by David Becker/Getty Images)
Adam Paul Laxalt (Rep.): 53% chance of winning
Catherine Cortez Masto (Dem.): 47% chance of winning
New Hampshire
(USAT)
Maggie Hassan (Dem.): 78% chance of winning
Donald C. Bolduc (Rep.): 22% chance of winning
New York
(USAT)
Charles E. Schumer (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
North Carolina
(Photo by Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images)
Ted Budd (Rep.): 78% chance of winning
Cheri Beasley (Dem.): 22% chance of winning
North Dakota
(Jack Gruber-USA TODAY NETWORK)
John Hoeven (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Ohio
(USAT)
J.D. Vance (Rep.): 76% chance of winning
Tim Ryan (Dem.): 24% chance of winning
Oklahoma
(USAT)
James Lankford (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Special Senate Election: Markwayne Mullin (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Oregon
(USAT)
Ron Wyden (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
Pennsylvania
(USAT)
John Fetterman (Dem.): 59% chance of winning
Mehmet Oz (Rep.): 41% chance of winning
South Carolina
(Republican National Convention via USA TODAY NETWORK)
Tim Scott (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
South Dakota
(Eric P Kruszewski-USA TODAY)
John R. Thune (Rep.): 99% chance of winning
Utah
(USAT)
Mike Lee (Rep.): 95% chance of winning
Vermont
(USAT)
Peter Welch (Dem.): 99% chance of winning
Washington
(Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY NETWORK)
Patty Murray (Dem.): 93% chance of winning
Wisconsin
(Mandela Barnes, USAT)
Ron Johnson (Rep.): 76% chance of winning
Mandela Barnes (Dem.): 24% chance of winning
