Michigan State football vs. Maryland: 5 determining factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State football’s game against Maryland, 3:32 p.m. Saturday at Spartan Stadium. TV: NBC and Peacock. Betting line: Maryland -7.5

1. Noah Kim’s attempt to bounce back

There’s no sugarcoating it: Noah Kim’s first real test as Michigan State’s quarterback went miserably. In fairness to Kim, it was his first real test, the first time he’d faced a first-unit defense from a major conference opponent and a good one at that. MSU’s offensive line didn’t adequately protect him and the Spartans didn’t have much of a running game to help. Still, Kim looked somewhere between shaken and uncomfortable and, other than a couple good throws, he never found anything close to a rhythm. He’s got to be better to give MSU a chance and to hang to the starting job.

Like everyone in the program, Kim deserves a mulligan for last week. But MSU needs a quarterback who’s a gamer — perhaps this MSU team more than others. Kim’s has to show he’s that guy. Or Katin Houser should get his first look against an opposing first-team defense.

2. Can MSU’s offensive line do the job?

If MSU’s offensive line doesn’t show more than it has to this point, it’s going to be a long couple of months. The Spartans didn’t control the line of scrimmage often enough against Central Michigan or Richmond and looked overmatched at times against Washington. It wasn’t just the push that was less than inspiring last week. Protection was also a problem at times. Whoever MSU plays at quarterback is going to be a relatively inexperienced starter. If, at the very least, this offensive line can protect its quarterback, I still think MSU's passing game has a chance to become something.

MSU’s running game looks more dire. Nathan Carter has shown enough to think he can get it done as a rusher in the Big Ten. But he’s not Kenneth Walker. He’s not as often going to make something out of nothing. Too often there hasn’t been anywhere for him to go. If MSU has younger offensive linemen who are close to ready, it might be time to see what they’ve got.

3. Keeping a lid on Taulia Tagovailoa, Roman Hemby and the Terrapins' offense

Maryland’s offense might not be quite as potent as what Washington brought to Spartan Stadium last weekend, but quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and Co. will be a chore to handle. The Terrapins don’t attack downfield with the same frequency as the Huskies and Tagovailoa throws more often on the move than Michael Penix does. Still, facing Washington last week should help the Spartans’ defense be prepared for what they’re about to see. And, like Penix, they’ve seen this Maryland crew before. Tagovailoa threw for 314 yards yards in Maryland’s 27-13 win over the Spartans last season (and faced them in 2021, too). Terrapins running back Roman Hemby is a big back with good speed who’s averaging better than 6 yards per carry.

Maryland hasn’t played stiff competition yet — beating Towson, Charlotte and a struggling Virginia program — but this offense has been humming. We’re going to learn whether last week was just a bad week for MSU against a great opponent or whether this Spartan defense is in some trouble.

4. MSU needs a couple playmakers to step forward

To quote MSU’s former head coach: A team needs three or four difference-makers on each side of the ball to get anywhere meaningful. Through three games, I’m not sure MSU has one player who’s a real problem for opponents. Some of that is youth. There are talented younger players on this roster who might become that force. MSU could use it now — a playmaker on offense that it can ride, a defensive tackle or defensive back who’s constantly in the opposing offense’s business. The Spartans need more than solid veterans and young guys who show glimpses of promise. It’s the only way they'll do anything surprising this season.

5. MSU’s resolve

The Spartans are going to give up some drives, some big plays, some points on Saturday. Even if they play better, things are going to go wrong. They might not feel quite as supported as a week ago, either. It’s homecoming, but, anecdotally, I know a few folks who are wavering about whether they want to be at Spartan Stadium for this one. We don’t know yet exactly what MSU is capable of as a football team. But the Spartans aren’t going to overwhelm opponents with their talent. We know that. The only way they’re going to win their share of games is if this winds up being mentally tough group of guys, who don’t let adversity spiral on them. This feels like a game where we learn a little about how much fight this MSU team has in it.

MORE: Couch: MSU's football team faces a massive week – and the realization more distractions are ahead

Prediction

I don’t see how anyone who watched Michigan State play Washington last week could pick the Spartans to beat what appears to be a capable and fairly potent Maryland team. That doesn’t mean they can’t. But we don’t know if MSU has a quarterback who can operate at this level, if its offensive line can hold up, if it has anyone ready to be a difference-maker on either side of the ball. I do believe last week's game against Washington was the worst possible matchup at the worst time. This game shouldn’t look like that. As for what it will look like …

Make it: Maryland 30, MSU 17

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU football vs. Maryland: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line