Michigan State basketball vs. Maryland tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Maryland
• When: 9 p.m. Tuesday
• Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing
• TV/Radio: ESPN2/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 392 (MSU broadcast), 391 (Maryland broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 14-9 overall, 6-6 in the Big Ten and unranked. Maryland is 16-7 overall, 7-5 in the Big Ten and unranked.
• Projected betting line: MSU -2.5
• Kenpom projected score: MSU 66, Maryland 65
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 680-276 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Maryland — Kevin Willard is 286-217 in his 16th season as a head coach. This is his first season with the Terrapins. Willard spent the last 12 seasons at Seton Hall.
• Series: MSU leads 13-7 all-time, including sweeping all three meetings last season.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 5.7
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 13.0
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 9.0
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 13.8
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.5
Maryland
C 24) Donta Scott (6-8) 12.3
F (10) Julian Reese (6-9) 10.6
G (13) Hakim Hart (6-8) 11.1
G (0) Don Carey (6-5) 7.1
G (1) Jahmir Young (6-1) 16.0
• MSU update: The Spartans find themselves facing a big week — a game Tuesday with a must-win feel to it and also a golden opportunity to get firmly on the right side of .500 in conference play with a game Sunday at struggling Ohio State, before Big Ten cellar-dweller Minnesota visits next week. MSU has lost five of its last seven games, though four of those were on the road and the only one that wasn’t was a one-point loss to Purdue. Those four road losses were to the top four teams in the Big Ten standings. So the schedule has had a lot to do with this most recent stretch of results for MSU. The Spartans’ struggles are on offense. They’re 11th in the Big Ten in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Kenpom. Defensively, however, they’ve been really good — fourth in defensive efficiency and tops in the league in 3-point defense, holding teams to 28.8% from beyond the arc in Big Ten games.
• Maryland update: The Terrapins are red-hot right now, having won four straight — beating Wisconsin by 18, Nebraska by 19, Indiana by 11 and, most recently, Minnesota on the road by 35. Their recent path has also been kinder than MSU's. That said, Maryland’s last loss was a three-point defeat at Purdue. So the Terrapins are legitimately playing well. They are not a good shooting team — 12th in league games in 3-point percentage (.318) and 10th on 2-point shots (.479) — but they win on the offensive glass, getting offensive rebounds on 31.2% of their possessions. They also defend the perimeter well, holding Big Ten teams to 32.3% from deep, while being among the best in the league at creating turnovers.
• Inside the matchup: I didn’t see this Maryland season coming. Not even in December, really. But Jahmir Young, a transfer from Charlotte, has been a great get and Donta Scott, who feels like he’s been around since Brad Davison was born, gives the Terrapins a post presence. I’ve always liked Julian Reese, who’s come into his own as a sophomore. Hakim Hart is a sizable wing. Maryland, like MSU will go 6-foot-8 and above at three spots on the court pretty regularly. Maryland doesn’t have overwhelming personnel, but, like MSU, the Terps have a number of quality players, four double-digit scorer types. Young is a seasoned guard and playmaker who can get his own shot and isn’t afraid of big moments. Tyson Walker is a better outside shooter, but there are similarities. Pound for pound, this is a pretty even matchup. MSU has more shooters. If the Spartans hit shots, at home, they ought to win.
• Prediction: Every time MSU has badly needed a win this season, the Spartans have gotten it. This is one of those times again.
• Make it: MSU 64, Maryland 59
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Maryland: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line
