Michigan State basketball vs. Arizona tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State vs. Arizona
• When: 4 p.m. (ET) Thursday
• Where: Acrisure Arena, Palm Springs, California
• TV/Radio: Fox/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 197 (Arizona broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 3-2 and ranked No. 21 by the Associated Press and 19 in the Coaches poll. Arizona is 5-0 and ranked No. 3 by both the AP and Coaches polls.
• Vegas Line: Arizona -4.5
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 690-282 in his 29th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Arizona — Tommy Lloyd is 66-11 in his fourth season as a head coach, all with the Wildcats.
• Series: Arizona leads 5-2 all-time. The Wildcats won the last meeting, on Nov. 11, 2016 in Honolulu.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 3.4
F (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 10.0
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 9.8
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 23.0
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 8.0
Arizona
C (11) Oumar Ballo (7-0) 12.4
F (16) Keshad Johnson (6-7) 13.4
G (3) Pelle Larsson (6-6) 11.4
G (4) Kylan Boswell (6-2) 13.8
G (2) Caleb Love (6-4) 12.4
• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off wins over Alcorn State and Butler, getting back on the right side of .500 at 3-2. Arizona is a bear of a different kind. We’ll learn if this MSU team has taken real strides since its loss to Duke last week. Tyson Walker, who missed Sunday’s game with an illness, practiced Monday and appears good to go. As does Malik Hall, who aggravated an ankle sprain Sunday. MSU’s best attribute it can bank on is its defense. The Spartans are an elite defensive team so far in several ways — keeping all five opponents under 30% from beyond the arc and, more impressively, they’re fourth-best in the nation at defending 2-point shots, holding opponents to 37% inside the arc, per Kenpom.com.
• Arizona update: The Wildcats are rolling — scoring at a high rate and dominating most of their opponents. They’ve scored between 97 and 122 points in four of their five games, winning by between 32 and 63 points in those contests. Their other game was a 78-73 true road win at Duke. Arizona is in the top seven nationally both in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, per Kenpom. They’re one of the country’s best offensive rebounding teams and top shooting teams, from both inside and beyond the arc (41.5%).
• Inside the matchup: Arizona is going to test MSU in the paint in ways Duke didn’t. The Wildcats platoon two skilled 7-footers at center, senior Oumar Ballo and freshman Motiejus Krivas. Both are terrific finishers around the rim. Ballo has become a load to deal with on the low block and averaged better than 14 points per game last year, before Krivas arrived to take some of his minutes. Krivas, from Lithuania, is an extremely skilled post player. Between the two of them, there is no relief.
The Wildcats’ wildcard is former North Carolina guard Caleb Love, who can be a dynamic playmaker or, historically, shoot his team out of games. At Arizona, he’s been much more efficient thus far running the show. Arizona also has several dangerous 3-point shooters in guard Kylan Boswell (who's 15-for-22), forward Paulius Murauskas (6-for-9) and wing Pelle Larsson (5-for-10). This is what makes defending them such a chore — they’ve got a number of guys who you can’t leave on the perimeter, but I don’t know how well Carson Cooper and Mady Sissoko will hold up on their own inside. It's unlikely MSU will won't help to some degree. How, though, is the question. At power forward, Malik Hall and Coen Carr will have their hands full with San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson, who's leading the Wildcats in scoring.
• Prediction: It’s not that MSU isn’t capable of winning this game. It’s that, based on what we've seen from these teams so far, the Spartans just don’t have enough advantages to think it’s going to happen. I thought MSU would lose this game before the season began. I think that’s more likely now. But if the Spartans pull this off, forget everything else that’s happened, all is fine with this MSU team.
• Make it: Arizona 75, MSU 66
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Arizona: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
