Michigan high school football playoffs: Here's who should win the state titles

Lansing Catholic’s Jim Baker and his staff met with their players Sunday morning and they talked about how they qualified for the state football playoffs despite winning only three games.

“Some asked if we deserve to be in,” Baker said Sunday afternoon. “We told them heck yes, we deserve to be in. We played a tough schedule and every team that we played and lost to is in the playoffs.”

Olivet and Hemlock also made the playoffs at 3-6.

Lansing Catholic is in Division 6, but you wouldn’t know it by its schedule.

The adjusted strength of schedule format, which the Michigan High School Athletic Association began in 2021, rewards teams for playing bigger and better schools with bonus points for losses.

PLAYOFF TIME! Michigan high school football playoffs: First-round pairings for 2023 state tournament

Lansing Catholic played one D-3 school, five D-4 schools, one D-5, one D-6 and one D-7.

So Baker isn’t apologizing to anyone.

“I don’t feel guilty about it, for sure,” he said. “Our conference has got all big teams. We’ve played these bigger schools. Obviously we’d like more wins, but it is what it is.”

Baker was an assistant when Jim Ahern built the Lansing Catholic program to be competitive on a statewide basis.

“When Ahern came here, he brought us a program that we thing that can compete against bigger schools,” Baker said. “That’s why we’re going to stay with it. Now that we get to play schools our own size, we’re a lot more confident.”

Two-time defending Division 3 state champ Detroit King appeared to be on the outside looking in when it lost to Cincinnati Moeller Friday, dropping its record to 4-5.

King began the season losing consecutive games to teams from Ohio and Indiana. The Crusaders also lost two close games to rival Cass Tech.

“We were hoping that us being a Division 3 school and playing six Division 1 schools we’d have a fighting chance,” said King coach Tyrone Spencer, who'll get his team ready to play at Port Huron in the first round this week. “We played only two school that we were bigger than so we hoped that gave us some type of chance to get in and somehow it worked out.”

This is Spencer’s 14th year in coaching, eighth as head coach. He remembers when a 6-3 record was a virtual guarantee of a playoff spot and a 4-5 record meant better luck next year.

“Naw, never, never, never did teams get in at 4-5,” he said. “We had that automatic six games. Sometimes you heard of teams with five wins getting in if they only played eight games.”

Richland Gull Lake is the only team with a 6-3 record not to make the playoffs. Gull Lake, an independent, is a D-3 school and on its schedule were one D-1 school, two from D-3, three D-4 teams as well as one team from D-5, D-6 and D-7.

This is an overview of what you can expect to see over the next five weeks.

At no increase in price we will tell you which eight schools will be leaving Ford Field Thanksgiving weekend carrying state championship trophies.

Division 1

Defending champ: Belleville. The Tigers began the season with a close 35-28 victory over River Rouge. Since then, the Belleville defense has surrendered only 18 points. The Tigers haven’t allowed a point in their last three games, including a 42-0 victory over Northville in the KLAA championship game.

Toughest district: Region 2, District 1. Brighton, Northville, Novi Detroit Catholic Central, Novi. This is a rare district where all four teams could win and advance to the regional final. Both district semifinal games should be outstanding.

Final four: Rockford, Belleville, Lake Orion, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley.

Sleeper: Davison. Forget about last Friday when the Cards gave up 55 points in a 56-55 win over Lapper, this team really can play defense when it has to do so. Obviously, scoring points is not an issue.

State champ: Belleville. Who else? The Tigers have won 34 consecutive games, which includes a pair of D-1 state titles. And then there is Bryce Underwood, the best junior quarterback in the country and he’s been terrific.

Division 2

Defending champ: Warren De La Salle. The Pilots lost a ton of talent from a core that won two state titles. La Salle lost the opener to Davison, a game it clearly could have won. In Week 4 it lost at Toledo Central Catholic, 28-23, in a game that wasn’t that close.

Toughest district: Region 2, District 1. Byron Center. Portage Central, Caledonia, Portage Northern. Byron Center and Caledonia landing here dramatically changes the dynamic of this region. The district final could be epic.

Final four: Muskegon, Caledonia, Waterford Mott, De La Salle.

Sleeper: Caledonia. People forget that Caledonia was the D-1 runner-up a year ago. It has lost two games — to Rockford and a close one to Grandville. The backfield is very good again and so is the defense.

State champ: De La Salle. This did not look likely when the season began, but it is a distinct possibility now. Since Week 4, the Pilots have not given up more than one touchdown per game over the last five games.

Division 3

Defending champ: Detroit King. Spencer doesn’t back down from anyone, but his aggressive scheduling nearly got the best of him. Opening against good teams from Ohio and Indiana and finishing against Cincinnati Moeller was not good for a team that had to replace All-America quarterback Dante Moore, but it worked.

Toughest district: Region 1, District 2. Grand Rapids Northview, Mount Pleasant, Lowell, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central. Forest Hills Central lost to De La Salle in last year’s D-2 final and is good again. Mount Pleasant flew under the radar after losing the opener to Heritage.

Final four: Forest Hills Central, Zeeland West, Mason, Riverview.

Sleeper: River Rouge. The Panthers, an independent, were badly overscheduled early in the season, but the enhanced playoff point average paid off here. Rouge has won the last four games by lopsided margins and if it can get the ball to Nick Marsh, look out!

State champ: Mason. The Bulldogs were the Free Press’ overall No. 2 team in the state before the season. The last two seasons Mason was eliminated from the playoffs in the semifinals by King. It has an excellent QB in Cason Cardwell and AJ Martell is a standout running back.

Division 4

Defending champ: Grand Rapids South Christian. After losing in Week 2, the Sailors got on a run behind quarterback Carson (Best Man) Vis and was rolling. But finishing the regular season with consecutive losses is dumbfounding.

Toughest district: Region 1, District 1. Allendale, Whitehall, Big Rapids, Spring Lake. Whitehall is ranked No. 1 in this division, but it will struggle to escape this district.

Final four: Whitehall, Niles, Goodrich, Chelsea.

Sleeper: Niles. Scott Shaw, a former Free Press All-State Coach of the Year at Three Rivers, has done an amazing job in his two seasons here. The flex-bone offense is tough to prepare for, especially with backs like Julian Means-Flewellen and Sam Rucker.

State champ: Whitehall. A regional finalist last season, Whitehall posted its second straight 9-0 regular season. The defense has been magnificent with six shutouts. Over the last six games, the Vikings have permitted only seven points. Quarterback Kyle Stratton is extremely efficient.

Division 5

Defending champ: Gladwin. The Flying Gs were sailing along this fall, decisively winning their first six games, all by a healthy margin. But then Pontiac Notre Dame Prep smacked them around, 56-21, in Week 7 and Frankenmuth, the team they beat in the finals, shut them out, 38-0, last week.

Toughest district: Region 3, District 1. Flint Hamady, Corunna, Williamston, Notre Dame Prep. At 5-3, Williamston is the only team in this district with a loss. A district final between Corunna and Notre Dame Prep could be a classic.

Final four: Frankenmuth, Grand Rapids West Catholic, Corunna, Flat Rock.

Sleeper: Frankenmuth. With all of the talk about the state’s west side success in the Grand Rapids, the Eagles have been overlooked. Although its 38-0 shellacking of defending champ Gladwin should have woken up some people. There is an excellent running attack with Hunter Bernthal and Jack Rich as well as a quality passer in Aiden Labissoniere.

State champ: Corunna. The Cavaliers haven’t been this good since Hall of Fame coach Nick Annese was the coach in the 1960s and 70s, when current Ferris State coach Tony Annese was still in short pants. Having QB Wyatt Bower and his twin receiver, Tarick, makes the Cavs a dangerous team.

Division 6

Defending champ: West Catholic. The Falcons breezed through the playoffs without a close game last season and still haven’t lost a game. But West has absolutely no chance of repeating as D-6 champs. It is now in Division 5.

Toughest district: Region 4, District 1. Almont, Clintondale, Warren Michigan Collegiate, Clawson. There isn’t a bad team in this district. Almont has been a top 10 team most of the season and Michigan Collegiate is ranked No. 1.

Final four: Kingsley, Hart, Constantine, Michigan Collegiate.

Sleeper: Hart. Until last season, the Pirates had gone 24 straight seasons without a winning season and in 2015 it didn’t even field a team. Those days are over. Joseluis Andaverde is an excellent running back and a defensive standout, too.

State champ: Michigan Collegiate. It was as surprise when the Cougars rose to No. 1 this season, mainly because this is a relatively new program. It didn’t even field a team until 2008, but the growth has been steady. It lost in the 2021 finals so this shouldn’t be a shocker.

Division 7

Defending champ: Jackson Lumen Christi. Lumen Christi began last season 0-3 so its spot in the state finals caught a lot of people by surprise. Even more surprising was its fourth-quarter rally to shock No. Traverse City St. Francis, which beat Lumen by 13 points in Week 2.

Toughest district: Region 2, District 1. Union City, North Muskegon, Schoolcraft, Lawton. North Muskegon should get to the district final where it will have to contend with either Schoolcraft or Lawton. Lawton beat Schoolcraft in a close game earlier this season.

Final four: Menominee, Lawton, Millington, Lumen Christi.

Sleeper: Millington. Regional finalists a season ago, the Cardinals have been outstanding. They have rolled some teams and shown the ability to win tough games. Ian Crump gains yards by the gobs and Owen Kreger leads a defense that can stop the run and makes passing futile.

State champ: Lumen Christi. This could be state championship No. 13 for Lumen and the 11th for coach Herb Brogan, only the third coach in history to win more than 400 games. The Titans have been downright dominating. The only loss came to unbeaten D-3 Gaylord, which has about 300 more boys than Lumen.

Division 8

Defending champ: Ottawa Lake Whiteford. The Bobcats are on a 13-game winning streak. Last season they played few close games as they rolled to the state title. A repeat looks possible.

Toughest district: Region 1, District 1. Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary, New Lothrop, Fowler, Ithaca. Four very competitive teams here. New Lothrop should get to the district final, but there is no guaranteed opponent. Fowler and Ithaca could be a shootout and the winner will find itself in a rugged district final.

Final four: Iron Mountain, Ithaca, Ottawa Lake Whiteford, Clarkston Everest.

Sleeper: Ithaca. This is the first season in D-8 for Ithaca, which may get lost in the talk surrounding traditional D-8 powerhouses Whiteford, Ubly and New Lothrop. Ithaca has a sophisticated passing attack and Jackson Conn can really sling it.

State champ: Ithaca. Whiteford has been No. 1 every week for two years now and it if gets the lead, it’s lights out. But with its run-oriented offense, it could have difficulty if it is forced to play from behind. And Ithaca’s offense can get off to a quick lead.

Mick McCabe is a former longtime columnist for the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at mick.mccabe11@gmail.com. Follow him @mickmccabe1. Save $10 on his new book, “Mick McCabe’s Golden Yearbook: 50 Great Years of Michigan’s Best High School Players, Teams & Memories,” by ordering right now at McCabe.PictorialBook.com.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: MHSAA football playoffs: Breaking down each division title race