Michigan football vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction for 'The Game'

Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football's matchup vs. Ohio State on Saturday:

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 3 Michigan (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0).

Kickoff: Noon Saturday; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

TV/radio: Fox; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 3½.

Availability report

Michigan: Out Week 11 vs. Maryland: OL LaDarius Henderson (expected to play), RB Danny Hughes. Questionable: WR Roman Wilson, OL Myles Hinton.

Head coach Jim Harbaugh will serve the final game of a three-game suspension handed down by the Big Ten earlier this month for violating the league's sportsmanship policy.

Ohio State: Out Week 11 vs. Minnesota: DB Cam Martinez, WR Kyion Grayes, S Lathan Ransom, DT Mike Hall, DL Will Smith, DL Jason Moore, LB Tommy Eichenberg (expected to play).

Scouting report

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When Michigan has the ball: For the second time in as many games, Michigan's offense struggled last week at Maryland. The Wolverines ran 45 times for just 150 yards (3.3 yards per carry); although Michigan had three rushing touchdowns, the longest rush of the day was 14 yards. The passing attack was even less effective; J.J. McCarthy completed just 12 of 23 passes for 141 yards and an interception — his third consecutive game without a touchdown as U-M was held below 300 yards for the first time all season. It didn't help that Michigan was without starting left tackle LaDarius Henderson and then lost wide receiver Roman Wilson in the first quarter and Myles Hinton in the third. But, as Blake Corum said afterward, U-M's attack needs to clean it up before Saturday. Michigan's offense had not faced any resistance until this two-game stretch, and the Buckeyes won't be easier: A defense that's No. 1 in pass yards per game (144.4), No. 2 in scoring defense (9.27 points per game) and No. 3 in total defense (252.9 yards per game) in Year 2 under coordinator Jim Knowles. Ohio State has allowed six points the past two weeks combined — a field goal from more than 50 yards out by Minnesota and Michigan State each.

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When Ohio State has the ball: It's not the same high-powered attack Ohio State has had in recent years, but this Buckeyes team can still move the ball. OSU is No. 24 in the country in scoring (33.6 points per game), No. 23 in passing yards (283.7 per game) and No. 22 in yards per completion (13.75). But the rushing offense has taken a backseat, which may be the primary reason the Buckeyes have struggled when close to the end zone this year. OSU's offense has scored 40 times (29 touchdowns) in 47 red zone trips — that 85.1% conversion rate is No. 60 nationally.

The Buckeyes, too, will have their toughest test of the season: Michigan's defense is No. 1 in first downs allowed (136), touchdowns allowed (five), yards per game (234.8), No. 2 in passing defense (148.4 yards allowed per game) and No. 8 in rushing defense (90.0 yards per game).

Know the foe

Marvin the magnificent: In terms of talent, Ohio State's is the only roster in America that can compete with two-time defending champ Georgia. The most talented of the bunch? Marvin Harrison Jr. The son of a Pro Football Hall of Famer leads the Buckeyes with 62 catches for 1,093 yards (17.6 yards per reception) and 13 touchdowns. U-M (like everyone) had serious troubles with him last season; he caught seven balls for 120 yards and a touchdown in Columbus. He enjoyed his most recent game against a team from Michigan even more, torching MSU for 168 yards and three TDs earlier this month.

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Hoping it's his Day: Ryan Day is 56-6 as he nears the close of Year 5 at Ohio State. He's still under plenty of pressure, though. Since saying he was going to "hang 100" on Michigan in a game that was never played due to COVID-19. OSU has lost two straight to the Wolverines. A third loss would put him in John Cooper (2-10-1 all-time vs. Michigan) territory in Columbus. Day is 39-2 in Big Ten play, and OSU is the only team in the country to qualify for the CFP three times since 2019. However, a loss Saturday, and none of that matters.

Odds and ends: Kyle McCord has completed 211 of 318 passes (66.4%) for 2,899 yards, 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions; his favorite targets not named Harrison are tight end Cade Stover (38 grabs for 534 yards and five touchdowns) and Emeka Egbuka (32 catches for 437 yards and three scores). Running back TreVeyon Henderson is electric, he has 118 carries for 794 yards (6.7 yards per attempt) and 10 touchdowns, while Chip Travanum is the bulldozer, with 79 carries for 336 yards and four touchdowns. On defense, linebacker Tommy Eichenberg (team-high 73 tackles) runs the show in the middle while J.T. Tuimoloau, a returning Big Ten first-team defensive end, is the primary pass rusher to contend with.

Tony Garcia's two cents

Money down: Michigan's offense has rarely been stopped on third down, ranked No. 4 in the nation (52% conversion rate); the Buckeyes' defense, however, has been stout, ranking No. 8 in stopping conversions (29.2%). On the opposite side, OSU is No. 20 converting third downs (46.5%) while Michigan's defense is No. 14 (30.3%) in getting off the field.

Michigan was 8-for-17 on third and fourth downs in this matchup last season while OSU was 5-for-17.

Dial it deep?: The Wolverines scored six touchdowns in last season's matchup and almost all of them came from midfield or beyond. Michigan scored five times from at least 45 yards. That doesn't seem likely to happen again, given the Buckeyes have given up one rush of more than 40 yards and Michigan ball carriers have just three carries of 40 yards or more (two by Blake Corum, one by Semaj Morgan) all year.

Furthermore, two of those long touchdowns last year came via Donovan Edwards on rushes of 75 and 85 yards in the fourth quarter en route to 216 rushing yards that afternoon. This year, in 11 weeks, he has 95 rushes for 323 yards (3.4 yards per carry) and three TDs.

Prediction

Unlike last year's shootout that featured nearly 1,000 yards of offense, this will be a cold afternoon in Ann Arbor with two two of the best defenses in the country. The Wolverines didn't go into last year's matchup with a ton of momentum and still got it done on the road. Now, with the backing of the home crowd, the Wolverines find a way once more. The pick U-M 20, Ohio State 16.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction