Michigan football vs. Iowa: Scouting report, prediction for Big Ten championship game

Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football's Big Ten championship game matchup vs. Iowa on Saturday:

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 2 Michigan (12-0, 9-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 17 Iowa (10-2, 7-2).

Kickoff: 8 p.m. Saturday; Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.

TV/radio: Fox; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 21½.

Availability report

Michigan: Out: OL Zak Zinter (broken leg), Questionable: DB Will Johnson (lower body), OL Myles Hinton (lower body), RB Danny Hughes (undisclosed).

Iowa: Out Week 12 vs. Nebraska: WR Diante Vines, DB TJ Hall, WR Reese Osgood, LB Zach Twedt, OL Beau Stephens, Out for season: QB Cade McNamara, TE Erick All, DB Cooper DeJean, TE Luke Lachey.

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Scouting report

When Michigan has the football: For the third time in four weeks, Michigan will face one of the nation's top five defenses, with Iowa ranking No. 4 in points allowed (12.17 per game) and No. 7 in yards allowed (279.9 per game). That level of test wasn't a problem against Ohio State — top two in both categories — as U-M scored 30 points, the most the Buckeyes allowed all season. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy had his best game in a month, he connected on 16 of 20 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown. He also made one of his best throws of the season, connecting with Roman Wilson for a 22-yard TD on third-and-10.

McCarthy has been hampered with a lower leg injury in recent weeks, and while reporters aren't privy to practice, it sounded like McCarthy didn't play every snap in recent weeks. Quarterbacks coach Kirk Campbell said Wednesday, "we practiced him as much as we could." The good news for U-M is, the ailment is said to be much better, and McCarthy looked better vs. the Buckeyes. "I just thought it was definitely bothering him (before that)," Campbell said. "Now he's 100%, so we're ready to rock." Running back Blake Corum, meanwhile, has already set a program record for rushing touchdowns (22) in a season and is second all-time (52), just three behind Anthony Thomas. Corum has run 202 times for 976 yards (4.8 yards per carry) this year and leads the nation in touchdowns.

When Iowa has the football: Remember the offenses of Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana and Michigan State, which combined to score 24 points in 320 minutes against the Wolverines? Well, each of those attacks finished ahead of Iowa this season in total offense (246.3 yards per game). In fact, the Hawkeyes finished last in the nation and nearly 25 yards per game behind the next closest team (Kent State, 270.4). The Hawkeyes are slightly better in scoring (18 points per game), however, that's because both the special teams (twice) and defense (once) have TDs this season. In fact, Iowa's offense has fewer touchdowns (20) than Corum alone this year.

Quarterback Deacon Hill, replacing the injured Cade McNamara, is a tank at 6 feet 3 and 258 pounds but hasn't been effective, connecting on just 48.3% of his passes (97-for-201) for 976 yards, five touchdowns and six interceptions. The leading healthy pass catcher? Nico Ragaini, a senior slot receiver who has 26 catches for 227 yards and no TDs. Meanwhile, the running game isn't much better. Leshon Williams has run 155 times for 779 yards — a respectable 5 yards per carry — but has just one touchdown all season. Iowa's touchdown leader? Sophomore running back Kaleb Johnson ... with three. Mercifully, this is the final season for offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, son of head coach Kirk Ferentz.

Know the foe

Familiar faces ... missing in action: Just two years ago, it was Cade McNamara finding Erick All on third-and-goal for a 5-yard TD with 5:24 to play in the 2021 Big Ten title game as part of Michigan's 42-3 pounding of Iowa for the program's first Big Ten title in 17 years. They were key pieces in the early stages of U-M's turnaround but neither's time in Ann Arbor finished the way it started. Both played all three of U-M's nonconference games in 2022 before suffering an injury against Connecticut. They transferred to Iowa in the offseason and ... were injured once more. McNamara tore an ACL against MSU in late September, and All suffered the same fate against Wisconsin in mid-October.

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Those injuries are a major reason for the Hawkeyes' offensive struggles. McNamara had completed 51.1% of his passes, throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions in the early going. Despite not playing in more than a month, All's 299 receiving yards and three touchdowns are still Hawkeye highs. "Obviously, it was on the forefront of our mind at the beginning of the season," McCarthy said Monday of the matchup against his former teammates. "Two great guys. ... Even though they're not playing, it'll be great to see them." While U-M's players have been positive toward McNamara, he hasn't reciprocated. On the "Talkin' Hawks with The VandeBergs" podcast, he called Michigan "that team" and also said, "Once I committed to Iowa, this game was the only thing I dreamed of, was being able to play this game for the Big Ten championship against them."

Cooper De-Done: In case the injury bug hadn't bitten Iowa hard enough, the Hawkeyes lost perhaps their best all-around player, safety and returner Cooper DeJean, to injury in practice earlier this month. A finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy as the top defensive player in the nation, DeJean was voted onto the AP's midseason All-America team; he played more than 400 snaps in pass coverage without a touchdown. DeJean (who I voted for as Big Ten All-Purpose Player of the Year) led the league with an 11.5-yard punt return average. His highlight of the year was a 70-yard punt return touchdown late in the fourth quarter to seal a comeback win over Michigan State. DeJean led the Hawkeyes in pass breakups (five), was second in interceptions (two) and seventh in tackles (41), as he became a semifinalist for the Jim Thorpe Award and a projected first-round NFL draft pick.

Tory Terrific: Normally punters don't get singled out, but this is Iowa. Tory Taylor will be an All-American and for his career has 281 punts for 12,944 yards (46 yards per punt). This season, Taylor has 79 punts for a school-record 3,766 yards (47.7 per punt) to lead the Big Ten in average. His season long is 62 yards, with 26 fair catches, 31 punts of 50 yards or more and 29 punts inside the 20-yard line.

Tony Garcia's two cents

Health is key: Michigan had great health in the early going, but injuries have added up in recent weeks. Offensive lineman Zak Zinter suffered a broken tibia and fibula last week, while LaDarius Henderson, Myles Hinton, Will Johnson and Junior Colson have all gotten dinged up. Johnson suffered an injury in practice, then exacerbated it vs. OSU; his status is not yet clear. Frankly, U-M shouldn't push it.

Michigan moved Mike Sainristil out to corner and slid Ja'Den McBurrows in at nickel with some nice success. That could be an option if U-M wants to protect its star DB. Colson also had a cast on his left hand after last week's game and while that's something a linebacker can generally play through, it's not ideal.

Pasadena or New Orleans? The Wolverines will, in all likelihood, nab their third straight College Football Playoff berth, with the semifinal destinations as New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl or Pasadena, California, for the Rose Bowl.

Michigan is 1-1 in the Sugar Bowl all-time, but won its most recent appearance under Brady Hoke in 2012, beating Virginia Tech, 23-20 in overtime). The Wolverines haven't gone to the Rose Bowl since 2007, when they lost, 32-18, to USC. That was U-M's third Rose Bowl appearance in a four-year stretch (it lost to USC, 28-14, in 2004 and to Texas, 38-37, in 2005 in the others.

The Wolverines are 8-12 all-time in "The Granddaddy of Them All," as Keith Jackson liked to say, but have not won a Rose Bowl since their 21-16 victory over Washington State on Jan. 1, 1998, to earn a split national title with Nebraska.

Prediction

Truly, it's hard to see Iowa moving the ball against Michigan. The Wolverines may struggle at times on offense, but any first downs the Hawkeyes get will be a surprise. It may not get fully out of hand only because there's no reason for the Wolverines to run up the score. They get their starters off the field for the fourth quarter — plenty of time to pick out the perfect angle for when Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti has to hand coach Jim Harbaugh another trophy. The pick: U-M 38, Iowa 3.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football vs. Iowa: Scouting, pick for Big Ten title game