New Mexico vs. Utah State: Keys For A Lobos Win, How To Watch, Predictions
New Mexico vs. Utah State: Keys For A Lobos Win, How To Watch, Predictions
Lobos looking for five win year
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Danny Gonzales could use a win
Game: Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos
Date: Friday, November 24, 2023 3:30 ET/ 1:30 MST
Location: University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: FuboTV with a free trial
Odds/Point Spread: Lobos (+9)
Total/Over-Under: 62
Series: Aggies hold all-time over the Lobos 16-13
University Stadium is where the New Mexico Lobos (4-7) will meet the Utah State Aggies (5-6) at 1:30 MST on Friday, November 24, 2023. Utah State is a 9-point favorite from oddsmakers. The over/under comes in at 62.
On Friday, Danny Gonzales and New Mexico Lobos are set to host Blake Anderson’s Utah State Aggies in a memorable showdown at University Stadium.
The Aggies lost 45-10 to the Boise State Broncos in their last game. The Lobos are coming off a 25-17 win over the Fresno State Bulldogs, who were 23-point underdogs.
This marked Danny Gonzales’s most significant triumph as the head coach for the Lobos, revealing to Lobo fans the team’s dynamic balance on defense and offense.
It showcased the capabilities of the assertive 3-3-5 defense under the guidance of defensive coordinator Troy Reffett, alongside a powerful offensive display led by Vincent Bryant as the play-caller, especially when players rose to meet the demands of the scheme.
The Aggies currently stand at 5-6 overall and 3-4 in the Mountain West, needing a win to reach .500 and become bowl-eligible. Conversely, the Lobos enter the game with momentum from their recent upset over Fresno State.
The historic series between the teams sees the Aggies holding a 16-13 advantage, having won the last six meetings. In their most recent face-off on November 5, 2022, Utah State claimed a 27-10 home victory.
Kickoff is at 1:30 p.m. on Friday, November 24. It’s not just any game—a chance to honor four seniors, Teedo Stafford, Jeremiah Hixon, Dylan Hopkins, and Donte Martin, as they play the final home games of their impressive careers.
Fresh off a historic 25-17 victory at Fresno State, marking their first win since 1994, the Lobos were dominant on both sides of the ball.
The Lobos came out and struggled through adversity, getting behind 14-3, only to put up over 500 yards total offense, 200 yards by running back Jacory Merritt.
Defensive Coordinator Troy Reffett’s 3-3-5 defense held the Bulldogs to only 40 yards rushing, and the secondary played lights out to show the Lobo faithful the potential of this program.
Last week’s triumph dashed Fresno State’s Mountain West title dreams, and now, the Lobos aim to spoil Utah State’s bowl aspirations. The Aggies must secure a win to qualify, setting the stage for a thrilling match.
“I really think it’s a program-defining moment,” New Mexico’s head coach said of Saturday’s 25-17 upset win over Fresno State, “since I’ve been the head coach here.
“We got to build on it and have success against Utah State for it to be that moment.”
Anderson and Gonzales come from the Rocky Long coaching tree in New Mexico football history from 1999.
Gonzales worked for Blake Anderson as a graduate assistant and served as UNM’s running back coach and wide receivers coach from 1999 to 2001.
“Blake used me like a rag doll,” he added. “And I (took) pride in it because I wanted those guys to have everything they needed to be successful position coaches. So, whatever he asked me to do, I would do it. And I learned a lot of football, I learned a lot (about) being a coach, I learned a lot of organization from Blake.
This writer, having served as the volunteer team chaplain for Rocky Long teams, I am well-acquainted with the close bond between these two coaches of faith, both in their character and their dedication to football and family.
I’ve never witnessed two individuals who dedicate themselves so wholeheartedly to the programs they coach, going above and beyond for their schools, players, and the families they support. They truly embody the word commitment.
A win for the Lobos would bring their season total to five victories, tying them with Utah State. This achievement would mark their highest win count since 2016, when they clinched a 9-4 record and triumphed in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl.
Furthermore, a victory would conclude UNM’s season at 3-5 in the conference, matching their most league wins since the remarkable 2016 season when they secured a share of the Mountain Division championship with a 6-2 record.
Even media tweets from Moutain West Wire admit the improvement this year:
“A 4-7 record may not seem like much, but you could claim New Mexico is headed in the right direction. For one, recall they were projected to finish last in the Mountain West this year, but it’s also already the team’s best year since their 9-4 campaign in 2016.”
As we anticipate this showdown in the Land of Enchantment, both teams bring formidable strengths and challenges.
Utah State, ranked 37th in the nation in passing offense, showcases a dynamic offensive arsenal led by quarterbacks Cooper Legas, McCae Hillstead, and Levi Williams. Running back Davon Booth and receivers Terrell Vaughn and Jalen Royals add further firepower.
The Utah State offense has amassed 2,710 passing yards in 10 games this season, averaging 271.0 yards per game (YPG), ranking as the 29th-best among FBS offenses.
Consequently, the strength of the Aggies’ passing game poses a significant challenge for the youthful Lobo secondary.
The outcome hinges on whether the secondary replicates their performance from last week against Fresno State or exhibits the vulnerabilities that have led to giving up substantial plays throughout the year.
The Aggies have faced struggles on the defensive front, standing 116th in scoring defense, allowing an average of 33.2 points per contest. However, their potent offense, averaging 33.2 points per game, keeps them in the mix.
Meanwhile, the Lobos, positioned 76th in passing offense and 34th in rushing offense nationally, pose a balanced offensive threat.
Lobo Quarterback Dylan Hopkins will play his final FBS college football game; he leads the Lobos with 1960 yards passing (178.2, 146-252 with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions.
Freshman Quarterback Devon Dampier has rushed for 297 yards (27.0 per game) on 51 carries with two touchdowns.
Jacory Merritt’s team-high 941 rushing yards (85.5 per game) have come on 157 carries, with 16 touchdowns this year. WR Caleb Medford’s 526 receiving yards (47.8 yards per game) lead all receivers on the team. He’s totaled 29 receptions and two touchdowns.
He was followed by Jeremiah Hixon’s 433-yard season so far (39.4 receiving yards per game) with five touchdowns, reeling in 35 passes.
D.J. Washington’s 27 receptions have turned into 333 yards (30.3 ypg), three touchdowns, and Andrew Erickson’s 17 catches, 221 yards, and a touchdown.
The Aggie Defense will face one of the premier running backs in the Mountain Conference and all FBS football.
He is called “Bill” by family and friends, and this transfer from Alabama State has been impressive for this OC Vincent Bryant offense, having scored over 16 touchdowns and 957 yards rushing for the year.
“He is 43 yards short of reaching 1000 yards for his first year with the Lobos. He runs behind the very large Offensive Line coach, Cam Blankenship.”
And he was listed as the second-best performance of running backs on the top 50 running backs of the week listed on twitter.
Bill will be back, along with Dorian Lewis, who was injured with a foot injury and will be back next season.
Defensively, the Lobos have faced challenges, ranking 120th in scoring defense. However, their recent performance against Fresno State showcased resilience and the ability to capitalize on turnovers.
The Lobo secondary has faced significant challenges this year, primarily due to a multitude of injuries, such as the absence of starting wolf Tavian Combs due to injury.
Consequently, the secondary is now predominantly composed of first- and second-year students.
These young players have been thrown into the proverbial baptism of fire, contending against offensive coordinators from the Mountain West Conference who are very aware of their opponent’s youthful secondary.
Some of the Aggie’s key players this year: Quarterback Cooper Legas has thrown for 1,815 yards while completing 64.8% of his passes (138-of-213), with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions this year (165.0 yards per game). He’s also carried the ball 68 times for 122 yards, averaging 11.1 yards per game.
Aggie’s running game, led by Davon Booth, has run for a team-high 691 yards on 109 carries (62.8 yards per game) and five touchdowns. RB Rahsul Faison has rushed for 582 yards on 87 carries (52.9 yards per game), with four touchdowns on the ground this year.
Leading the Aggies in receptions would be Jalen Royals, who has 61 receptions for a team-high 934 receiving yards (84.9 per game) and 12 touchdowns, and Terrell Vaughn has contributed with 809 yards (on 76 catches) and ten touchdowns.
Micah Davis has caught 36 passes for 628 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 57.1 yards per game this year.
Blake Anderson is known for an up-tempo style of offense and uses every inch of the field, so this will be a big challenge for this young Lobo secondary.
The reality of this game is the offense that has the majority of the time of possession to keep the opposing team’s offense off the field will have a clear advantage.
Especially given the fact that the defenses of both of these teams are a clear work in progress.
As kickoff approaches, keep an eye on key players’ statuses, including the availability of quarterbacks Hillstead and Legas for Utah State for this Blake Anderson team.
This Black Friday clash promises Mountain West Football fans an exhilarating battle on the gridiron, with both teams hungry for victory and a memorable conclusion to the regular season.
Depending on the developments this week, both teams might need their primary starting quarterback as this game starts; Aggie Quarterbacks Legas and McCae are listed as up in the air if they play Friday.
Both teams have struggled defensively throughout the season, suggesting the potential for a high-scoring matchup.
Utah State is driven by the prospect of becoming bowl-eligible with a win, adding extra motivation.
On the other hand, after an impressive showing against Fresno State, New Mexico may have exhausted their resources in that game, possibly affecting their performance here.
Expect a high-scoring matchup away, where the team displaying superior defensive prowess holds a distinct advantage.
The point spread is too close to predict the outcome confidently. Still, the Lobos will narrowly defeat the Aggies at home, virtually securing Danny Gonzales’s contract for his fifth year next season.
The injuries to the Aggies’ quarterback position are poised to have a notable impact on the game, providing an opportunity for the Lobo defense to excel on home turf.
Following the Boise State game, some of the Aggies’ key players, including starting quarterbacks, running backs, and other positions, are questionable.
While it’s that time of the year when all teams contend with injuries to crucial players, I firmly believe the Lobos are less hampered. This advantage is likely to influence the outcome of the game.
As a result, the four seniors stand to conclude their college careers as winners.
Prediction: New Mexico 31, Utah State 28
