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New Mexico State vs. Fresno State in New Mexico Bowl: Score prediction, scouting report

This year’s New Mexico Bowl will be a battle between the Aggies and Bulldogs as both teams get ready to face off in just under two weeks.

This is the first time New Mexico State (10-4) has qualified for a bowl game in consecutive years since the 1959-60 seasons. The matchup between New Mexico State and Fresno State (8-4) marks the Aggies’ sixth bowl appearance — NSMU holds a 4-0-1 bowl record.

Last season, the Aggies defeated Bowling Green, 24-19, in the Quick Lane Bowl. The year before head coach Jerry Kill and his staff arrived, the Aggies went 2-10 overall.

Fresno State, who play in the Mountain West Conference, became bowl-eligible for the third consecutive year with a 37-32 win over Utah State in early October.

The Aggies became bowl-eligible for the second year in a row after New Mexico State defeated Middle Tennessee State in early November. Before dropping Friday’s Conference USA Championship game to undefeated Liberty 49-35, the Aggies held an eight-game winning streak.

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Dec 26, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New Mexico State University quarterback Diego Pavia (10) shows off his game MVP trophy as he and his teammates celebrate their win over Bowling Green State University in the 2022 Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field.
Dec 26, 2022; Detroit, Michigan, USA; New Mexico State University quarterback Diego Pavia (10) shows off his game MVP trophy as he and his teammates celebrate their win over Bowling Green State University in the 2022 Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field.

During the matchup against the Flames, Aggies’ starting quarterback Diego Pavia left the game in the second half after suffering an upper-body injury, forcing true freshman Blaze Berlowitz to make his first appearance of the season.

“He gave everything he had,” Kill said during the post-game interview, noting Pavia had not practiced all week leading up to their game against Liberty due to an apparent shoulder injury. “He is the toughest kid I’ve ever been around … and I have coached for forty years.”

Berlowitz came in for the Aggies in the third quarter with roughly five minutes left. On their third play of the drive he completed his first pass, and then with less than three minutes left, Berlowitz found Trent Hudson for an 11-yard touchdown.

More: Liberty now 13-0 after defeating New Mexico State in Conference USA football title game

“Blaze, he didn’t bat an eye,” Kill said of the young quarterback. “To be honest with you, he surprised me a little bit — he is going to be a good player, too.”

Fresno State is also charging into an offseason of uncertainty as the Bulldogs announced on Dec. 1 that head coach Jeff Tedford will be stepping away from his duties to address "personal health concerns." Assistant head coach and linebackers coach Tim Skipper will act as head coach for the bowl game.

Heading into the New Mexico Bowl, New Mexico State is averaging 28.7 points per game, fourth-best in Conference USA. This season, Pavia has thrown for 2,915 yards and 26 touchdowns as well as an additional 853 rushing yards and six touchdowns.

Eli Stowers, who entered the season as New Mexico's No. 2 quarterback, has thrown for 99 yards and a touchdown as well as an additional 112 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Aggies receiver Jonathan Brady has 613 yards off 37 receptions while running back Star Thomas has 643 rushing yards.

Fresno State is averaging 29.9 points per game, fifth-best in the Mountain West Conference. Quarterback Mikey Keene has thrown for 2,596 yards and 21 touchdowns. Malik Sherrod is a threat out of the backfield and in the air, leading the team with 876 rushing yards and 179 receiving yards.

Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene looks to pass against UNLV during their NCAA football game at Valley Children's Stadium in Fresno, Calif, Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023. Fresno State won 31-24 in front of a sellout crowd.
Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene looks to pass against UNLV during their NCAA football game at Valley Children's Stadium in Fresno, Calif, Saturday, Oct. 28, 2023. Fresno State won 31-24 in front of a sellout crowd.

Score Prediction

Fresno State is going into the bowl on a three-game losing streak after falling to San Jose State, the University of New Mexico, and San Diego State, while averaging less than 20 points in each showing. On the other hand, Pavia is still dealing with a nagging injury as he has throughout the season, which raises some questions. Can the Aggies rise to the occasion to take home a second bowl trophy under Kill? New Mexico State 37, Fresno State 24.

The New Mexico Bowl game will be at 3:45 p.m. MT on Dec. 16 in Albuquerque. The game will air on ESPN.

This article originally appeared on Visalia Times-Delta: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State: Score prediction, scouting report