Should Mets trade for Juan Soto, and what kind of package could it take?

Juan Soto is a generational hitter. He has one of the sweetest left-handed swings you'll ever see, almost unbelievably good plate discipline, and absolutely massive power potential -- and he could be available via trade this offseason.

The Padres, coming off an underwhelming season and with massive long-term commitments already being paid to Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts, are expected to significantly trim their payroll this offseason -- and also reportedly have some debt service issues they're dealing with.

It's incredibly hard to see San Diego being able to unload Machado, Tatis, or Bogaerts, and seems close to impossible that they would be able to extend Soto. So trading him this offseason makes all the sense in the world for them.

Soto is an all-world offensive player, is entering his age-25 season, and is someone all 30 teams would be lucky to have. But when you factor in the trade package it will take to acquire him, the money he's set to make in 2024 during his final year of arbitration (perhaps as much as $30 million), and the enormous extension it will take to keep him, there are really only a handful of teams that can trade for him and extend him.

The Mets are among them, and are in dire need of more offensive punch, so there could be a fit here.

But is now the time to pounce on this kind of move?

During his introductory news conference on Monday, president of baseball operations David Stearns discussed his philosophy as it pertains to building an organization and when to spend big.

"We are going to do our best to put together a team in 2024 that is competitive," Stearns said. "And we're gonna do it in a way that does not detract from our competitiveness in the future years.

"That's a needle to thread, but that's our goal. And that should be our goal. We're the biggest market in the country, we have plenty of resources, and so we're going to aim to put together a competitive club next year that our fans can be excited about and ensure that we're doing it in a way that doesn't detract from those future years."

Soto is a monster at the plate -- a career .284/.421/.524 hitter with 160 homers, 148 doubles, and 483 RBI in six seasons. He has finished top-10 in MVP voting three times, and is right in the middle of his prime.

But it's also important to note that while Soto is an incredible offensive player, he provides very little value defensively. He has been worth -14 DRS over the course of his career and was in the third percentile in Outs Above Average in 2023, worth -9 OAA.

There is no perfect trade comparison for Soto, but there are two that come decently close: the recent trades of Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt, who -- like Soto -- were superstars who were a year from free agency when they were dealt...

Comp No. 1: The Mookie Betts trade

Ahead of his age-27 season and one year from free agency, the Red Sox traded Betts and LHP David Price to the Dodgers in February of 2020 in exchange for OF Alex Verdugo, INF Jeter Downs, and 2B/C Connor Wong.

Verdugo was the No. 34 prospect in baseball before the 2019 season, per MLB.com, and had a strong first full season for Los Angeles that year. Downs was the No. 44 prospect in MLB ahead of the 2020 season, and Wong was not ranked in the top 100.

In the trade, the Sox ate $45 million of the $93 million Price was owed over the next three seasons, in effect giving Los Angeles a $16 million a year pitcher who soon transitioned to relief.

Betts' salary in 2020 during his final year of arbitration was a then-record $27 million. He signed a 12-year extension with the Dodgers worth $365 million in July of 2020.

Before the trade, Betts was a career .301/.374/.519 hitter over six seasons with 139 homers, 229 doubles, 470 RBI, and 126 stolen bases. He had also won four Gold Gloves as he established himself as one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. He won the MVP award in 2018 and was a top-10 finisher from 2016 to 2019.

*The Betts trade also included the Dodgers getting RHP Brusdar Graterol, OF Luke Raley, and a comp pick from the Twins, with Minnesota getting RHP Kenta Maeda, C/3B Jair Camargo, and cash from the Dodgers.

Comp No. 2: The Paul Goldschmidt trade

Ahead of his age-31 season and one year from free agency, the Diamondbacks traded Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in December of 2018 in exchange for C Carson Kelly, RHP Luke Weaver, and INF Andy Young.

Kelly was the No. 46 prospect in baseball before the 2019 season, Weaver (entering his age-25 season) had compiled a 4.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 233 innings for the Cards from 2016 to 2018 while working mostly as a starter, and Young was not ranked in the top 100.

The Cardinals and Goldschmidt agreed to a five-year extension worth $130 million in March of 2019.

Before the trade, Goldschmidt was a career .297/.398/.532 hitter with 209 homers, 267 doubles, 124 stolen bases, and 710 RBI in eight seasons for Arizona. He had won three Gold Gloves at first base.

Verdugo -- a slightly above average regular -- is the only player the Red Sox acquired in the Betts deal who has amounted to anything in the majors.

As far as the Goldschmidt deal, Weaver had a 4.72 ERA in parts of four seasons for Arizona, and Kelly (now with the Tigers) has shown flashes but been a well below league average hitter during three of his five big league seasons.

However, what the players in the Betts and Goldschmidt trades have done since those trades doesn't matter when it comes to this exercise. What matters is how those players were viewed and valued at the time the trades went down.

Meanwhile, it's fair to say that Soto's value -- despite his defensive shortcomings -- is closer to what Betts' value was than what Goldschmidt's was. That's due in part to the fact that Soto is just 25 years old, making him a very good bet to remain an elite hitter for a large chunk of whatever deal he signs.

So, what might it take to land Soto?

In the Betts trade, the Red Sox received two of the most highly-regarded young players in baseball. One (Verdugo) had already made an impact at the big league level, while the other (Downs) was among the top 50 prospects in the game. That deal should be instructive when it comes to what the Padres should be able to get in return for Soto.

San Diego can start negotiations by asking for a team's top three prospects or even a team's top four prospects if they so choose, but they're not going to get that -- nor should they.

Teams do not give up that kind of value for one year of a player, no matter who it is, even if they're confident they'll eventually be able to re-sign him.

That means that for the Mets, they would likely have to center a trade for Soto around two of their most prized young players.

Francisco Alvarez, whose ceiling is higher than Verdugo's is and Downs' ever was, should be off-limits. But anyone else would have to be in play.

That could mean INF Luisangel Acuña (ranked No. 38 by MLB.com) and OF Drew Gilbert (No. 52). Or maybe it's one of Acuna and Gilbert plus Jett Williams (ranked No. 78 but likely to skyrocket up the list the next time it's updated).

Perhaps San Diego would prefer one of the prospects above and Ronny Mauricio to headline a deal.

There's also a chance the two teams aren't a match, which would be possible if the Padres valued other teams' position player prospects higher and/or were in search of an ace-level pitcher who's close to the majors (the closest the Mets have there is Blade Tidwell).

If there is a match here, should the Mets do it?

As tempting as it would be to add Soto to the Mets' lineup, I think the better play is to keep their most prized young players and instead attack free agency smartly, but aggressively as they wait for players like Acuna, Gilbert, and Williams to make their big league debuts.

That means going after Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, rebuilding the bullpen, and adding an outfielder and DH via free agency as well.

The Mets will also explore what it would take to sign Shohei Ohtani, whose eventual deal could be similar to Soto's. But unlike Soto, Ohtani will cost only money. And he can pitch. Not in 2024, but he'll likely be back on the mound in 2025.

The above would track with Stearns' philosophy, and his and Steve Cohen's desire for sustained success.

I'll add one caveat, though...

If the Mets are able to pry Soto from the Padres for a deal centered around just one of Acuna, Gilbert, or Williams, and none of their other most highly thought of prospects who have either already reached the majors or are close, they should go for it. But it's hard to see that happening.