Mets projected as playoff team in PECOTA's 2024 standings

The annual PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus are out, and they see legitimate playoff contention for the 2024 Mets.

Here's the gist on the projections, via BP:

Please remember that PECOTA and our simulations do not "pick" a team to "win" any particular number of games. Rather, they identify an estimated range of games a team might win and tells you the average of that fairly wide range. That is the point of the visualizations. Any one of those outcomes is possible. However, some of them, as you can see, are more likely than others.

Now, the numbers...

The Mets are projected to finish in third place in the NL East, with an aggregate simulated record of 83.6-78.4.

The above record would land the Mets the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League, beating out teams like the San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, and Miami Marlins.

The projections give the Mets a 49.2 percent chance of making the postseason. For comparison, the Philadelphia Phillies are given a 53.3 percent chance.

As far as output, PECOTA projects that the Mets will score 780 runs and allow 756, which would make them one of just six teams in the NL with a positive run differential.

PECOTA's projections having the Mets as a solid team and a true playoff contender really shouldn't come as a surprise, since the roster that has been put together by new president of baseball operations David Stearns is actually … solid.