Mets arbitration candidates: Predicting who is safe, who is on the bubble and who is out
The Mets roster, as it was constructed last season, lacked impactful depth. Billy Eppler constructed a roster that had elite talent at the top but not much in the middle.
The drop-off from the stars to the role players and back-end options was steep. President of baseball operations David Stearns has a solid track record of finding quality depth pieces. He touched on it during his introductory press conference and credited his staff for helping him find and identify those depth players.
There are several players under team control due for raises in arbitration this winter but it’s unlikely the Mets will tender contracts to all of them. Here’s a look at the arbitration-eligible players on the 40-man roster and our best guesses as to whether or not the Mets opt to keep them.
Safe: 1B Pete Alonso, DH Daniel Vogelbach, RHP Drew Smith, LHP Joey Lucchesi, LHP David Peterson
Stearns said he expects Pete Alonso will be the Mets’ Opening Day first baseman. Alonso, who has one more year of team control before becoming a free agent, recently switched agents and retained Scott Boras, who typically likes to take clients to free agency. He may end up right back with the team that drafted him and developed him after testing the free agent waters, but he continues to emphasize how much he loves New York and playing for the Mets, so negotiations could open up again.
Daniel Vogelbach should be on the bubble. He didn’t produce when the Mets needed him to this year, despite Eppler’s insistence that he would. Maybe without Eppler, Vogelbach’s chances of returning might not be as high, but thanks to MLB Trade Rumors we have an idea of what he might make next year: $2.6 million, which is pretty cheap. The 30-year-old has familiarity with Stearns having played in Milwaukee, and he’s extremely well-liked in the clubhouse.
In the end, Vogelbach managed to finish the season with a 104 OPS+, so between the cost-effective salary and his on-base skills, the Mets could be tempted to keep him around a little longer. However, this doesn’t mean he will be the primary DH next year.
Left-handers David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi have value as depth options and will likely be around $2 million each. The Mets could use them as back-end starters or put them in the bullpen. The team churned through some long-relief options early in the season and none of them stuck. Peterson and Lucchesi could be options for that role.
Drew Smith struggled this year with his breaking stuff, but the right-handed reliever still has minor-league options.
On the bubble: RHP Trevor Gott, RHP Jeff Brigham, RHP John Curtiss, RHP Sam Coonrod, RHP Elieser Hernandez, OF DJ Stewart, INF Luis Guillorme, OF Tim Locastro
Trevor Gott was good for the Mets at times, but also very bad at others. They paid a high price for him, sending left-hander Zack Muckenhirn to Seattle in exchange for the right-handed reliever and taking on the salary of right-hander Chris Flexen. Stearns acquired Gott once in Milwaukee, so he may be inclined to keep him around and use him in lower-leverage situations.
Without Edwin Diaz last season, the Mets needed some of their “optionable” arms to step up. Jeff Brigham didn’t, even when the Mets continued to use him in important spots. Eventually, the club was forced to use that minor league option, demoting him to Triple-A when the situation became untenable and his nearly 20% home run rate caught up to him.
Brigham is 31, so it’s not like he’s an emerging prospect who needs more development. The same can be said for John Curtiss (30) and Sam Coonrod (31), who both struggled with injuries this season. Both are out of minor league options, while Brigham has one left. Curtiss was already non-tendered by Stearns once, with the Brewers opting not to retain him while he rehabbed from his second Tommy John surgery in 2022.
Luis Guillorme had his worst offensive season and was demoted to Triple-A. He also missed time with a calf injury. However, the 28-year-old is a homegrown defensive whiz who can play every infield position.
The Mets have to figure out if DJ Stewart’s August performance was an aberration or whether it’s sustainable. He hit .303 with eight home runs and 16 RBI in August before getting injured and cooling off in September. He also didn’t hit left-handed pitching well, with an OPS of .595 in 49 plate appearances. Stewart, who will be 30 next month, could be useful as a bench option.
Tim Locastro is an intriguing option with his speed, but the Mets weren’t able to utilize it with the outfielder spending most of the season on the injured list. The team will have to decide if the base-stealing is necessary or whether that roster spot can be utilized in another way.
Non-tender: INF Danny Mendick, OF Rafael Ortega, C Michael Perez, OF Tim Locastro, RHP Elieser Hernandez
Danny Mendick can play a lot of positions, but he didn’t hit for the Mets in his first season after ACL surgery. Rafael Ortega had a few big hits, but not enough. Michael Perez is out of options and the Mets still have Tomas Nido in the organization, plus catchers Kevin Parada and Hayden Senger coming through the system.
Elieser Hernandez couldn’t stay healthy and he’s also out of minor league options.
