McCurdy: Book Forte as your Kentucky Derby winner
Remember the commercials from back in the day that ran late at night with some tout yelling about the locks that can only be found by calling a 1-800 number?
Consider this the newspaper/website version.
I've got a lock for you, only you don't have to call me, just keep reading.
If you plan to watch or play the Kentucky Derby later tonight, look out for Forte.
Wow, Railbird Rob, really? The favorite that everyone's talking about? That's the lock? Way to really put yourself out there.
In a 20-horse field with lightly raced 3-year-olds, picking a winner isn't as easy as riding a bike or walking and chewing gum. Lots of things can and will go wrong, but Forte is the horse I feel the best about.
Simply put, he checks most of the boxes that Derby winners tend to check.
Favorite
There was a time when playing favorites was a fool's bet. From 1980 to 1999, only one favorite wore the roses at the end and that was Winning Colors in 1988.
From the turn of the century, that has changed. Since Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, 10 favorites have won, including six straight from 2013 to 2018. Throw in a few second-place finishes and it's a strong probability that the favorite will be on a winning exotic ticket.
Before windows opened today, Forte was a morning line 3-1 favorite, so check a box.
Preps
No race better prepares a horse to win the Kentucky Derby than the Florida Derby. The Gulfstream Park prep has produced 24 Kentucky winners, and in the last few decades, 13 Florida Derby runners also won in Kentucky.
The Santa Anita Derby in California is also a good predictor, rivaling Florida with 11 winners in a similar span.
Since 2012, Florida has produced four winners as has Santa Anita.
Forte is a Florida Derby winner, so check a box.
Post Position
Since 1980, no one has won along the rail in the 1 or 2 spots. The 9, 12, 14 and 17 holes haven't seen a winner either. Post positions that have produced just one win in 40-plus years are the 4, 6, 11 and 19.
The best starts have come from the 5 and 10 spots with six wins apiece. The 16 hole and 8 hole are next with five wins, while four wins started from the 7 and 15 spots.
Forte starts in position 15, so check a box.
Racing Style
There are three types of styles that win the Derby.
There are the front runners that want to get out and go from the start. Medina Spirit in 2021 went gate to wire in leading the pack. From 1983 to 2002, those kinds of wins happened just six times, but in the last six races, that style has won five times with horses starting among the top two early in the race and prevailing down the stretch.
Since 1980, the most prevalent way to win was off the pace. That's happened 21 times. Last year's bomber of all bombers, Rich Strike at 80-1, showcased this style best. The horse started from the 20-hole and was sitting 18th halfway through the race. At the mile marker, he was only 15th, but he used a kick, found an unused lane up the rail and scooted to the improbable win.
Longshots tend to be off-the-pace runners like Country House in 2019, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Giacomo in 2005, but Orb did it as a 5-1 favorite in 2013 as did 5-1 shot Street Sense in 2007.
Finally, there are the stalkers, the ones that get away just behind the lead group and try to position themselves for big kicks down the stretch when the front runners tire. From 2003 to 2016, stalkers won nine Derbys.
Looking at Forte's past performances, he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Fountain of Youth by stalking the leaders and he showed an off-the-pace ability in winning the Florida Derby, going from ninth to winning by a length while making up more than six lengths in the final half of the race.
There doesn't appear to be a lot of sustainable speed horses in this year's field, so coming off the pace could be challenging if there aren't a lot of tiring horses running ahead.
This could be a year for a stalker to win, and Forte fits that profile, so check a box.
Connections
Todd Pletcher always brings a pack of horses to the Derby, providing 62 since the turn of the century. His win percentage isn't good with just two winners in that time with Super Saver and Always Dreaming, but he's not 0-fer either. He's shown he can get horses ready to win Triple Crown races, including the Derby.
In golf, there's the best golfer not to win a major yet. In horse racing, it's all about the Derby. As a jockey, Irad Ortiz has more than 3,500 wins to his credit, including last year's Belmont Stakes and a Belmont in 2016. He has four Eclipse Awards given to the year's best jockey in the country, and he's won more than a dozen Breeders Cup races. He's in his prime and he's due.
Check two boxes for Forte.
Other Notes
Since winning his first race in his first outing a little less than a year ago at Belmont, Forte has competed in nothing but graded stakes races. He finished fourth in the Sanford at Saratoga in his second race ever but has since rattled off five straight victories.
One would think the champion colt as a 2-year-old would fare well as a 3-year-old. But only Nyquist and Street Sense used the Breeders Cup Juvenile as a springboard to the roses at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Nyquist was a speed demon, while Street Sense was more of the model Forte exhibits. That bit of history is a concern.
At $2.4 million, Forte has banked more than twice what any other horse in the field has banked and in some cases, it's 10-fold more.
If you like ratings like the Beyer speed figure or other analytic measures, Forte ran a 100 Beyer at the BC Juvenile, a 98 at the Fountain of Youth and a 95 in Florida. Only Two Phil's at the grade 3 JR Stakes has a better mark with an out of nowhere 101, while Santa Anita winner Practical Move has posted two 100s in its last two races, and Forte barnmate Tapit Trice has a 99 with winning the Blue Grass in Keenland as does Skinner which finished third at the Santa Anita Derby.
There are a lot of good and capable horses in this year's field: Tapit Trice, Mage, Skinner, Practical Move and Angel of Empire. Tapit Trice, Practical Move and Skinner will all get deeper looks before post time.
But the closest thing to a lock is Forte.
Book it, and you didn't need to call a 1-800 number.
Rob McCurdy is a longtime Kentucky Derby player and he is the sports writer at the Marion Star and for USA Today Network-Ohio. He can be reached at rmccurdy@gannett.com, 419-610-0998, Twitter @McMotorsport and Instagram @rob_mccurdy_star
Railbird Rob's Picks
1. 15 Forte (3-1, Pletcher/Ortiz): I make the case above.
2. 10 Practical Move (10-1, Yakteen/Vasquez): If no one pressures Practical Move early and it can set the pace, he will be a tough horse to beat.
3. 5 TapitTrice (5-1, Pletcher/Saez): He has a lot of the same qualities as Forte. A lot. Still, he's not as seasoned. I could see the horse winning or finishing 14th, but he deserves a spot in some exotics as a backup to Forte.
4. 2 Verifying (15-1, Cox/Gaffalione): He finished second by a neck to TapitTrice at the Blue Grass Stakes. It has shown speed and was a highly touted 2-year-old who could be rounding into form.
Others to watch: 3 Two Phil's (12-1), 6 Kingsbarns (12-1), 7. Reincarnate (50-1), 11. Disarm (30-1).
This article originally appeared on Marion Star: McCurdy: Book Forte as your Kentucky Derby winner
