Matchup observations for Week 17 of the NFL season
Every week, in preparation for their Touchdown Wire Matchup Preview Podcast, Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield put together a show rundown based on their own tape observations and statistical takeaways. We thought our readers would find it of interest, so here’s our matchup notes for Week 17 of the NFL season, and the playoff permutations thereof!
Dolphins at Bills
Dolphins will make the playoffs with a win in this game. They could also clinch a wild-card spot if the Ravens, Browns or Colts lose. The Bills have already clinched the AFC East and are likely to be the two-seed or three-seed in the AFC, depending on what happens with the Steelers.
Interesting thing about the Dolphins benching Tua in favor of Fitzpatrick: Against the Raiders, Tua had very little idea what coverages he was getting, because there were never pre-snap static coverage looks. They were going amoeba from linebacker depth to the secondary, almost creating motion for information and impact as you would expect an offense to do. Even if there was an “obvious” look pre-snap, it was never the same post-snap. There was always one guy moving around in an undefined space, and safeties were spinning one way or another late. When Fitzpatrick came in, the Dolphins ran more tempo no-huddle, which led to more static coverages and corresponding coverage busts. It was surprising to see the Dolphins not give Tua a shot with that, because speed no-huddle forces a defense to sit in more static coverages because they can't communicate, and speed no-huddle has worked for Tua in this offense this season. https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/12/09/mythbusters-why-no-huddle-isnt-the-universal-cure-for-every-ailing-offense/ Also, per Joe Schad of the Palm Beach Post: The Dolphins are in line to become the first team in at least the last 20 years to finish first in scoring defense (they were dead last in 2019), first in takeaways with 27, and first in third-down defense. They’re also fifth in red zone defense. We automatically assume that Brian Flores is in charge of this because he’s a defensive coach, but Flores himself gives defensive coordinator Josh Boyer most of the credit. Huge obvious test against the Bills if the Bills play their starters, but there you are.Dan Orlovsky on Josh Allen, and this shows Allen’s ability to not only process, but to take a very smart defense to the woodshed from a mental perspective. This is the four-yard touchdown pass to Lee Smith. Pre-snap, Allen waves Diggs in motion from right to left, and points to safety Kyle Dugger, like, that’s your guy to block because we’re running the ball. Dugger reacts to this by giving his teammates (specifically safety Adrian Phillips) run keys on the back side. Play-action at the snap, Smith runs a leak route right over Phillips who is consumed by the fake -- and by Allen’s pre-snap actions. This isn’t just a quarterback who’s helped by play-action -- this is a quarterback who’s calling the shots pre-snap, influencing the defense mentally, and taking the win. It’s not that Allen is the only quarterback capable of doing this; it just shows how well he and Brian Daboll are working together, and how much Allen has improved as a processor. https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/12/31/anatomy-of-a-play-how-josh-allen-fooled-the-patriots-for-an-easy-touchdown/ Last time we saw Allen before this season, he was throwing up all over himself against the Texans in the playoffs, and now this. When was the last time you saw a jump from one season to the next for a young quarterback?Oh, and Kenny Stills is visiting Buffalo. Let’s give the Bills another deep threat.
Ravens at Bengals
The Ravens will make the playoffs with a win in this game. They could also clinch a wild-card spot if the Browns or Colts lose. The Ravens are the team nobody allegedly wants to face in the playoffs. But this is a team with a quarterback who still has trouble deciphering stuff downfield, and their defense has fallen off the truck in the second half of the season: From fifth to 27th overall in DVOA since Week 10, from seventh to 26th against the pass, and from second to 21st against the run. Ravens’ DBs have allowed nine touchdowns with no interceptions since Week 10. You take linebacker Tyus Bowser out of the equation, and Baltimore has five total picks this season. I get that their running game is back on track in a production and multiplicity sense, but I see a lot of vulnerabilities here.
Steelers at Browns
Browns will make the playoffs with a win in this game. They could also clinch a wild-card spot with a loss by the Colts or by a Titans loss and wins by the Ravens, Colts and Dolphins. The Steelers have already locked up the AFC North and are likely to be the 2- or 3-seed in the AFC. Mason Rudolph is starting this game, so get your helmets swinging. I’m more interested in what happened when Ben Roethlisberger took over the Steelers’ offense in the second half against the Colts. All of a sudden, he’s making bang-on deep throws -- during the three-game losing streak, he completed four of 15 attempts of 20 or more air yards for 102 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 67.2. In the second half against the Colts, Roethlisberger completed 23 of 29 passes for 244 yards, and three deep completions — two of which were touchdowns. https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/12/28/how-ben-roethlisberger-went-rogue-and-won-the-afc-north-for-the-steelers/ On six deep attempts, he also had two PI calls on throws to Diontae Johnson that added 45 functional yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster told Mike Silver that the Colts were calling out everything the Steelers were throwing, so at the half, Ben threw out the script and started calling passing plays the team hadn’t even practiced. He was a completely different quarterback from the standpoint of velocity and accuracy, and formerly butter-fingered receivers were all of a sudden laying out to make plays. Also, Chase Claypool got off the milk carton. Was this a Randy Fichtner problem all along? Ben’s DYAR per quarter against the Colts, per Vince Verhei of Football Outsiders: -11, 1, 81, 93. Steelers are sitting everyone and the Browns are in the middle of another COVID uptick, so yeesh.
Vikings at Lions
So, the Lions weren’t just awful in man coverage in allowing six touchdown passes to the Buccaneers -- and TWO TO BLAINE GABBERT. I thought they’d be the usual “Don’t Play Man If You Can’t Play Man” winners this week, but they allowed two touchdowns in Cover-01, two touchdowns in Cover-3, one touchdown in Quarters, one touchdown in Cover-6. I understand that their coaching staff was depleted due to COVID, but I would venture to say that no NFL team has ever "accomplished" that before.
Jets at Patriots
The only thing I’ll say about the Patriots in retrospect is that I thought for sure they’d be far more interesting in the run game this year. I was sure that Bill Belichick, who has defended mobile quarterbacks from Randall Cunningham to the new guys, would have had an overflowing playbook of run concepts for a guy like Cam Newton. And you really never saw it from week to week. They were more interesting and effective in the quarterback run game when they were rolling basic zone read with Jacoby Brissett out there against the Texans a few years back than they ever were with Cam. It's kind of stupefying. https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/05/01/why-the-patriots-should-sign-former-public-enemy-no-1-cam-newton/
Falcons at Buccaneers
We’re going to give some love to offensive linemen this week, and I want to talk about Buccaneers left guard Ali Marpet. We’ve discussed how much better Cleveland’s offense is with Wyatt Teller on the field, and the Buccaneers’ splits with and without Marpet are astonishing. He’s been on the field for 723 snaps this season, and off for 207. So, enough of a sample size. With Marpet on the field, per Sports Info Solutions, Tampa Bay has a passing EPA of 0.19. Off the field, it’s -0.13. The Positive Play rate goes from 42% to 52% when he’s on the field. Completion percentage goes from 60.4% to 67.6%. Yards per attempt goes from 6.4 to 7.9. Yards per dropback goes from 5.5 to 7.5. Touchdown rate goes from 3.7% to 7.4%. Interception rate goes from 3.7% to 1.3%. Pressure rate goes from 34.8 to 22.5. Sack percentage goes from 4.3 to 3.2. Blown block pressure rate goes from 18.4% to 8.8%. Blown block sack rate goes from 2.8 to 1.7, and yards per target goes from 6.3 to 8.1. Marpet missed time with a concussion, and when he’s on the field, that passing game works. When he’s not, it doesn’t. End of story.
Bears at Packers
The Bears will make the playoffs with a win in this game. They could also clinch a wild-card spot if the Cardinals lose. The Packers are the favorite to be the one-seed in the NFC, and a win here would clinch it. So, we all thought that the Titans would play bully-ball against the Packers on Sunday night, and Matt LaFleur flips the script. Tennessee’s skating around playing fireable man coverage, and LaFleur is running A.J. Dillon as if he’s… well, Derrick Henry. The Packers seem to want to prove that they can win any way possible. We have talked about safety duos and how important they are in the playoffs, so let’s talk about Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage. Some interesting improvements from that defense in the second half of the season.
Jaguars at Colts
The Colts need to win have either the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Dolphins lose to make the playoffs. If the Colts win and the Titans lose, the Colts clinch the AFC South. No Anthony Castonzo for the playoffs, per multiple reports, and you have to wonder what happened to the Colts on both sides of the ball in the second half against the Steelers. Colts were still dropping down to close short stuff when Big Ben started throwing deep out of nowhere. On offense, it appeared that pressure abbreviated the Indy passing game in the second half.
Chargers at Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes in his last three games -- 59.2 completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and the same passer rating (87.6) as Drew Lock. In that time, he has the most dropbacks under pressure (55), and under pressure, he’s completed 47.3% of his passes for one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 57.6. Miami, New Orleans, Atlanta are the opponents. All play a lot of man/match. We think of the Falcons as a Cover-3 team, but they’ve played more dropbacks in man than everyone but the Lions, Cardinals, and Saints this season. Not that the Chargers, who play a crapload of zone, will present the same issues, but with a three-week stretch of iffy play and a lot of pressure, are we right to be worried? If they have to play shootout against the Bills, how does that look right now? Because we can go process or outcome here. We can say, “Well, they’re still winning,” or we can wonder what’s up as the playoffs loom larger.
Cardinals at Rams
The Cardinals can clinch a playoff spot with a win in this game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The Rams can clinch with a win or a loss by the Bears. Well, we’ve got former Arizona Hotshots hotshot John Wolford, so give us your scouting report, Mark Schofield! https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/12/29/john-wolford-a-hero-will-rise-for-the-rams/ I (Doug) made the observation this week that I don’t think there’s a team that just does what they do without schematic help more often than the Cardinals. On offense, and we’ve talked about this, they put DeAndre Hopkins at that backside iso, and they don’t even motion him for information or impact. On defense, it’s a bunch of speed linebackers rushing, and the 49ers really exploited that. 30 runs for 227 yards (7.6 yards per carry, and the longest run was 34 yards, so it wasn’t just a couple of 80-yarders and a bunch of stuffs). If Arizona beats L.A. and gets into the postseason, they might be out before they even start with that crap. The usual Shanahan staples -- wham and delay.
Seahawks at 49ers
Seahawks defense through their Week 8 loss to the Bills (per John Boyle of Seahawks.com): Last in total defense (455.8 yards per game), last in passing defense (362.1 passing yards per game) and 30th in scoring (30.4 points per game). Since then: Including the Week 10 loss to the Rams, the Seahawks, over the past seven games, have had the NFL's best scoring defense (15.0 points per game), ranked third in total defense (302.1 yards per game), sixth in pass defense (203.0), third in opponent yards-per-play average (4.6), fifth in opponent passer rating (78.3) and recorded 24 sacks, tied for the most over that span. Opponent strength is an issue, which is why the DVOA uptick since Week 10 has them from 28th to 16th against the pass, from ninth to seventh against the run, and from 19th to 12th overall. But if their offense is humming, this is a team you want no part of in the playoffs.
Saints at Panthers
One guy we haven’t talked about this season and should, and it factors highly into the Saints’ postseason chances -- was listening to Brandon Thorn on Robert Mays’ Athletic podcast, and Brandon had Terron Armstead as his best left tackle. No argument for me, as he’s been dominant in two very different offenses -- the whole Payton passing game as much as Brees can handle it when healthy, and the Weak-F run game stuff when Taysom Hill was in there. That entire offensive line treated the VIkings very inhospitably on Alvin Kamara’s six touchdown runs (which should have been seven). https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/12/11/new-orleans-saints-taysom-hill-alvin-kamara-sean-payton/
Titans at Texans
The Titans will clinch the AFC South title with a win. They could also get a wild-card spot if the Ravens, Colts or Dolphins lose. This week’s winner of the “Don’t Play Man If You Can’t Play Man” award is the Titans. Ran Cover-1 on five Packers dropbacks and gave up three touchdowns on four completions. They have now allowed 21 touchdowns and no interceptions in man coverage. The Lions have allowed 21 touchdowns in man this season, but they have four interceptions. The Texans have allowed 19 touchdowns with no interceptions in man coverage, so this could be the Super Bowl of bad man coverage. Fun!
Washington at Eagles
Washington will clinch the NFC East title with a win in this game. Jalen Hurts' third start was a mixed bag. Really nice designed runs and RPO concepts to keep an aggressive Cowboys front on its heels, but opportunities in the passing game. Missed at least two open crossers to Ward and he had Jalen Reagor WIDE open vs. 2 deep on the Travis Fulgham catch in the second quarter. While I don't think that Hurts is a guy you need to break from bailing the pocket Baker Mayfield-style, he'll have to learn to quicken the processing speed over time so he can play with even more timing and anticipation. Kind of a see-it-and-throw-it guy right now. Eagles are out of it no matter what, but beyond whatever happens with Wentz, it’s a fascinating thing to imagine what Hurts could learn and add to his arsenal with a full offseason as The Guy. I wonder if, against Washington’s dominant front, this is a 20-rushing attempt game for Hurts out of the RPO and read concepts.
