March Madness: Can Saint Peter's really beat Purdue in Sweet 16? A coach's candid analysis

After beating Kentucky, anything seems possible for the Saint Peter’s University basketball team in Friday’s NCAA Tournament East Regional semifinals.

But beating Purdue really stretches the limit.

That’s the take of a head coach who faced the Boilermakers this season and, like much of the college hoops world, has been taking a long look at this Sweet 16 David vs. Goliath matchup.

“Would this be a bigger upset than the win over Kentucky? I think so, yes,” said the coach, whose name has been withheld so he could speak freely. “It’s a really tough matchup with Purdue’s size. Purdue plays hard. They have a really good coach.”

Unlike Kentucky, the third-seeded Boilermakers won’t be surprised by how tough and aggressive the 15th-seeeded Peacocks are.

“Shaheen Holloway has done a hell of a job and he’ll have his guys ready to play,” the coach said. “Sha will do a good job changing up defenses. Against Kentucky they were aggressive and Kentucky was on their heels.”

Against Purdue, the coach said, “you’re going to have to pick your poison” defensively. “Are you going to double the post and let them fire threes, or not double the post and give up twos?”

Given Saint Peter’s personnel, the coach said, there isn’t really an option.

“I don’t think Saint Peter’s can take away the twos,” the coach said. “I know the kid (Saint Peter’s postman KC Ndefo) is a good defender, but 6-7 vs. 7-4 (Zach Edey) doesn’t match up. Edey is so big that you can’t really front him. I would just get into their perimeter and don’t let them get going from three.”

Purdue boasts the second-best offensive efficiency rating in the country. The Boilermakers shoot 49 percent from 2-point range and 39 percent from 3-point land.

“They’re the one team I played this year that can do a little bit of everything,” the coach said. “They’ve got two big guys who can score (Edey and 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams) surrounded by guys who can make threes. And once they get (point guard) Jaden Ivey going downhill, forget it. He’s the most athletic point guard in the country.

“They have all the tools to win the national championship. I’ve thought that all year long.”

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Holloway, whose Peacocks play a tight brand of man-to-man defense, impressed his coaching brethren by pulling out a matchup zone against Kentucky, with great results.

“With Purdue’s zone offense, they will put Edey in the low block, he’ll duck in, and he’s a big target so they’ll throw it to him,” the coach said. “They have a really good zone offense because he is so big.”

What could help Saint Peter’s threaten the upset, in this coach’s mind? Hitting jumpers, especially mid-range shots that Purdue’s defense is likely to yield. And a loose whistle, to allow the Peacocks to exert the full force of their physicality.

“If the whistle is tight, Purdue will have a huge advantage,” the coach said.

“At least Sha gets a week to prepare,” he said. “That’s better than one day against a team like this.”

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There’s also the intangible of being Cinderella.

“The one thing about Sha and Saint Peter’s is they have nothing to lose,” the coach said. “The problem with Purdue is he’s got to win a national championship or their fans are going to kill the guy. Sha has got house money, so one team can come in real loose and the other team has all the pressure. That’s what happened with Kentucky. Saint Peter’s was out there having fun and Kentucky was in the dentist’s chair.”

Jerry Carino has covered the New Jersey sports scene since 1996 and the college basketball beat since 2003. He is an Associated Press Top 25 voter. Contact him at jcarino@gannettnj.com.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: March Madness Sweet 16: Can Saint Peter's really beat Purdue?