Ranking the 13 true contenders to win the 2022 men's NCAA tournament

For all the talk of Madness and upsets and unpredictability, over the past 25 seasons, the NCAA men's basketball tournament has been won by a non-top-three seed precisely once.

UConn did it in 2014. But in modern college basketball, true "Cinderellas" don't do it. They occasionally crash the Final Four. They never win it. Until recently, the index of champions since 1995 read like a guest list for an elitist soirée.

Which is why the following list, of teams that could realistically win the 2022 tournament, is, frankly, somewhat boring. Duke is on it. Kentucky, Kansas and Arizona feature prominently as well.

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There are upstarts-turned-powerhouses, like Baylor and Gonzaga, but the point is that the field of contenders is relatively narrow. It could reasonably be whittled down to 10, or even seven. We'll cover 13, but the takeaway nonetheless: Don't get too creative when filling out those brackets.

(In parentheses: BetMGM national title odds)

TIER 1: THE FAVORITES

1. Gonzaga (+300)

This isn't last year's Gonzaga. It isn't undefeated, wire-to-wire-number-one, head-and-shoulders-above-the-field Gonzaga. But these Zags have two All-Americans, a potential No. 1 overall pick, experience and elite coaching. And that's why they have a five-plus-point-per-possession advantage over every team in America, even when adjusting for strength of schedule.

So, can they win it all? Of course they can. They could have last year, and in 2019 and 2017 as well. Can does not mean will. The backcourt is unexceptional. A late-season loss to St. Mary's hinted at vulnerability — if Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren don't have their way around the rim.

But the idea that this program is fraudulent, that some indiscernible thing prevents it from winning six straight in March, is ridiculous. Jay Wright and Villanova couldn't win in March ... until they did, twice. Tony Bennett and Virginia couldn't ... until they did. Gonzaga can, and probably will sometime soon, and 2022 might just be that sometime.

2. Arizona (+600)

Gonzaga's top challenger is led by their former coach-in-waiting. Twelve months ago, Tommy Lloyd was Mark Few's No. 2. Now he's the architect of the tournament's No. 2 team. It's balanced, fast, diverse, unselfish and efficient. It has all the makings of a title contender — except March experience. Arizona hasn't played a postseason game since 2019, and hasn't won one since 2017, and most of the current squad were young teens then.

They are, though, ascendant, 15-1 since the start of February, with two wins over UCLA and two Pac-12 titles. They should roll to the Elite Eight, and could keep rolling thereafter.

TIER 2: THE LEGIT CONTENDERS

3. Kentucky (+800)

Kentucky's oldest men's basketball team since the 1950s is a departure from the John Calipari mold. It's been built not on one-and-dones but on transfers, and it outdid preseason expectations, especially on the offensive end.

The worry is that the Wildcats don't have the 3-point shooting to fuel a March run, especially with Kellan Grady ice cold (5-for-22) over his last six games. But Oscar Tshiebwe, the most dominant rebounder the men's game has seen in some time, more than makes up for perimeter shortcomings.

4. Kansas (+900)

The best team in the best conference in the country is a product of steady growth. It doesn't look dissimilar on the surface to the one blown out by USC in the second round last March. But it's a year older, a year stronger, a year smarter, and capable of a Final Four run — or more.

5. Baylor (+1200)

Scott Drew reloaded a semi-bare cupboard with transfers and unheralded freshman, and, over the past four months, cemented himself among the sport's elite coaches. Last year's big four all graduated or bolted for the NBA. The Bears, somehow, are right back where they were at this time a year ago.

They don't have the offensive upside that last year's title-winning crew had, and therefore don't have the repeat potential that their No. 1 seed might suggest. But they'll be in the mix.

6. Tennessee (+1800)

Perhaps the hottest team in the land. The Vols are 12-1 since the start of February, with wins over Kentucky (twice), Auburn and Arkansas. They can play at any pace, and match up with almost anyone. They're the biggest threat to Arizona in the South.

7. Texas Tech (+2200)

Chris Beard is gone. The identity that he crafted in Lubbock is not. Under Mark Adams, a Tech graduate and former Beard assistant, the Red Raiders have built another defensive juggernaut reminiscent of the one that ground its way to within inches of a national title in 2019. They're switchable, ferocious, and can stifle any opponent straight out of the tournament — including Gonzaga.

8. Auburn (+1400)

Stout on defense, streaky on offense, and unfortunately streaking in the wrong direction recently. But if Jabari Smith and Wendell Green get hot, the Tigers are scary.

9. Duke (+1400)

Coach K's career has been remarkable. These Blue Devils have looked extremely unremarkable lately.

10. Villanova (+1800)

Jay Wright's best team since the second national championship is, in many ways, a known quantity: Very good, not great, a solid Sweet 16 bet, probably a long shot beyond that. But note the "probably"; don't count the Wildcats out.

TIER 3: THE FRINGE CONTENDERS

11. UCLA (+2200)

The Bruins returned just about everybody from last year's Final Four team, and ... never quite looked like a favorite to replicate the feat. Huh? Why? How?

Well, because they weren't actually that great a year ago. They entered the tournament at KenPom No. 45. They very nearly lost in the First Four. It would've been their fifth defeat in a row.

They have, a year later, played like the fringe contender that you'd expect that team to turn into.

12. Iowa (+2500)

Forget the Final Four. Iowa hasn't even reached the tournament's second weekend this century. So what makes these Hawkeyes different?

Well, start with Keegan Murray, a still-improving sophomore wing who might just be the most well-rounded player in college hoops. He's scored, rebounded, blocked shots and taken care of the ball all season; now he's hitting 45.5% of his 3s since the start of January. Iowa has never had a player like him.

It has, of course, had offensive machines like this one that simply sputtered in March. But don't blame Fran McCaffery for running into an Oregon buzzsaw last year. Forget the slip-ups of yore. With something resembling a home-court advantage in Chicago, Iowa can win the Midwest.

13. Houston (+3300)

On one hand, after losing key contributors from last year's Final Four team, Houston lost its two best remaining players to injury mid-season. It went 2-3 against the next-best teams in a run-of-the-mill conference. It went 1-4 against at-large tourney teams overall.

On the other hand, advanced metrics adore the Cougars. And, well, nobody pegged them as a Final Four team last year either.

TIER 4 AND BEYOND: THE PRETENDERS

14. Purdue
15. Arkansas
16. Illinois
17. Saint Mary's
18. Texas
19. Wisconsin
20. UConn
21. North Carolina
22. Michigan
23. Virginia Tech
24. Michigan State
25. Memphis
26. Alabama
27. LSU
28. Loyola Chicago
29. San Francisco
30. Murray State
31. Boise State
32. Providence
33. San Diego State
34. Indiana
35. Ohio State
36. UAB
37. USC
38. Colorado State
39. Seton Hall
40. TCU
41. Rutgers
42. Creighton
43. Davidson
44. Notre Dame
45. Marquette
46. South Dakota State
47. Chattanooga
48. Vermont
49. Richmond
50. Iowa State
51. New Mexico State
52. Miami
53. Colgate
54. Akron
55. Montana State
56. Yale
57. Saint Peter's
58. Delaware
59. Longwood
60. Jacksonville State
61. Bryant
62. Cal State Fullerton
63. Norfolk State
64. Texas Southern
65. Georgia State
66. Wright State

Already eliminated:

Wyoming
Texas A&M Corpus Christi