How Manchester United will try to win the ball higher up the pitch to get on the front foot against Cardiff
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is the talk of the footballing world after agreeing to take charge of Man Utd, and his first task as manager of one of the biggest clubs on earth is to find a way to beat the mighty Cardiff. That's the same Cardiff Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was fired from with a 16.7 Premier League win percentage back in 2014. How times change.
What can we expect from this game? What will Neil Warnock have up his sleeve to spoil the party?
How United might lineup
Cardiff could approach this game in a few different ways. They've sat deep against some opposition and aggressively pressed others but due to the quality of player they're up against and the overwhelming feeling of momentum they'll sure to face, trying to keep the game quiet is the most sensible option.
Man Utd players might feel a weight has been lifted from their shoulders now Jose Mourinho's away but their attacking play hasn't been great all season long and it's tough for anyone to fix that with under a week's preparation. The shape will surely be similar to what it has been all season - a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 - meaning Solskjaer must focus on a change in mentality and provide a plan to break down an extremely stubborn opponent.
Cardiff have played fewer passes (4703) than anyone in the league (United have played 8435 and Man City have played 11944, for context) and will setup for Saturday's match anticipating that they'll see little of the ball. A low-block defensive strategy in a 4-5-1 shape is most likely and if players are intense, well-positioned and get the luck of a few bounces, Warnock can contain and frustrate a side desperate to show what they can do without shackles.
Winning the ball back
Under Mourinho, Man Utd have looked to win the ball at halfway, inviting teams to come out of their defensive shape in order to catch them in transition.
To kick-start the cultivation of that missing attacking mentality, Solskjaer will presumably ask his players to push higher up the pitch and attempt to win more tackles and make more interceptions nearer the Cardiff box, having his players counter-press when losing possession rather than getting back into their defensive shape straight away.
This requires the defensive line to move several metres forward to ensure United's players are close to each other, which allows them to compress and suffocate space on the pitch when out of possession and force Cardiff to clear the ball. Until now, Man Utd's approach has been more like Burnley's, with a much deeper, more passive defensive line.
Cardiff's strategy will be to soak up this pressure and force United's passing out wide to encourage them to cross the ball in; this is one area of the pitch that Warnock's side can expect to win. Cardiff have won 470 aerial duels this season - the most of any team in the league - while United sit mid-table with 312. This is due to differing styles of play - as the weaker side, Cardiff should naturally be expected to clear rather than take down high balls - but if United's chance creation can be limited to crosses from wide area, Sol Bamba and Sean Morrison need only really worry about Romelu Lukaku's heading ability.
Beware the Cardiff counter-attack
Cardiff have confounded critics this season with some terrific results and these have often been a direct result of quick, direct and intensely-contested counter-attacks. Callum Paterson has emerged as a dangerous number nine despite making his name as a right-back at Hearts, and will look to stretch and run in behind United's confidence-sapped back four.
United should dominate possession here but if they are unable to find a way through the walls of defence, as so many teams have struggled to, eventually individuals may lower their effort and attention levels a few per cent, resulting in loose passes, spending too long on the ball and other errors which can produce turnovers.
Cardiff will be instructed to look for these opportunities and use a slack pass as a pressing trigger, launching Junior Hoilett, Sean Murphy and Paterson forward to take advantage of any three vs three situations they can create after closing down and tackling a United player in possession. Solskjaer must ensure his players move the ball quickly and are highly alert when passing around the halfway line to avoid this.
An early Man Utd goal would change the entire complexion of the match and might encourage Cardiff to attack. Warnock might fancy that this is exactly the right way to defend and have his team go at them from the start, roared on by the home crowd. And why not have a go? It certainly worked for smaller sides against Jose Mourinho's team...
