Making a wager at Thurby? Betting tips from Horse Racing Nation's Ed DeRosa
Thurby has become a phenomenon. What once was just a day to poke fun at its moniker has now become a can’t-miss day at the races at Churchill Downs, and even if you can’t be there live, the 12-race card offers three stakes and competitive racing from top to bottom.
Race 1 picks: 2-1-3
No. 2 Morning Miracle drops way down the class ladder for her return to dirt in second start for trainer Mike Maker. She has shown signs of life in both starts, passing horses after a troubled start on debut and making the lead last out. If the class relief helps her put it all together, then she’ll be tough.
Race 2 picks: 8-7-1
Going with another class dropper as our top pick in Race 2, preferring No. 8 Noble Bernadette in her dirt debut with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. Encouraged that she showed some interest early in her first start for the Joe Sharp barn and expect her to press the pace Thursday.
Race 3 picks: 6-2-12
Horse Racing Nation produces a ratings system for first-time starters, and No. 2 Slanderous and No. 6 Miss Makenna both received the top five-star rating. Both should offer a decent price given connections, but we’ll give a slight edge to the latter, as she cost $140,000 from the first crop of Horse of the Year Authentic, who won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Race 4 picks: 6-1-4
High-level allowance race here, and No. 6 Angkor scratched out of a race closing week at Keeneland to race here instead, and I think that was the right move by trainer Phil Bauer to start this one’s 6-year-old campaign. He has a couple wins at Churchill and has run well off layoffs before. No. 1 Kavod is dangerous with speed from the rail.
Race 5 picks: 2-14-9
I’ve picked No. 2 Modern Day Warrior in each of the previous races he was entered at Keeneland. He scratched both times, so we’ll try again here for the well-named son of Uncle Mo who should be able to handle turf given pedigree. No. 14 Juan Valdez needs to draw in to compete here but if so would be very dangerous. No. 9 Thermoscope can’t be ignored on debut for CJ Thoroughbreds given connections of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.
Race 6 picks: 7-1-6
No. 7 Classic Legacy is always running at the end, but to date, he’s made it to the winner’s circle only once. Connections thought enough of him to try him in the Kentucky Derby prep races last year at Tampa Bay Downs, and he didn’t embarrass himself with fourth- and third-place finishes. This is his third start off the layoff and with the longer one-turn sprint here might be able to sit closer without dulling his late kick.
Race 7 picks: 8-1-2
A quick look on paper might indicate that No. 8 Generous Lover prefers turf, but those were good fields she faced in the maiden ranks sprinting on dirt, and while she earned her only win going long on the turf, Brisnet says that was actually one of her slowest races. With the drop in class, she looks to fit this group well. No. 1 In Color provides speed from the rail.
Race 8 picks: 4-1-11
On the turf for this classy allowance race, and looking through results from last year from opening week, it seems like there was an advantage sweeping wide off the turn with a closing kick. That profile fits No. 4 Risk Manager, who has a win at this course and distance and gets the services of world-renowned jockey Frankie Dettori. No. 1 Dripping Gold fits on talent, but inside speed might be worth going against on turf at Churchill until shown otherwise.
Race 9 (Kentucky Juvenile Stakes) picks: 3-7-9
Major brag comment incoming, but I picked No. 3 The Queens M G on debut at 45.37-1, so it’s hard for me to look past her here knowing she’ll be a decent price again with trainers Wesley Ward and Mark Casse both having strong first-out winners showing up here. That Ward trainee, No. 7 Shoot It True, was super impressive winning on opening day at Keeneland by 7 lengths.
Race 10 (St. Matthews Overnight) picks: 5-2-7
All eyes on No. 5 Bango here as the 7-year-old goes for his record 12th victory at Churchill Downs. He won this race off a slightly shorter layoff last year and is absolutely the horse to beat here. No. 2 Surveillance was no match for a run-off winner opening weekend at Keeneland.
Race 11 (Opening Verse Stakes) picks: 4-9-3
A good bunch here for this mile turf stakes race, and why not for $350 large? No. 4 Smokin T was buried on the rail two back in his seasonal debut then caught a more-comfy outside trip last out when winning a stakes at Gulfstream. As noted in Race 8 picks, that outside trip is more to this course’s profile, so if jockey John Velazquez can work similar, then Smokin T is the horse to beat.
Race 12 picks: 3-6-8
If you think 12 of these are a lot, wait until 13 and 14 for Oaks and Derby days! Thurby ends with a one-turn mile for $30,000 claimers, and No. 3 Mucho Mojo drops in class for the return to dirt. His last race going two turns on synthetic at Turfway was hardly inspiring, but I am encouraged that Gaffalione takes the assignment here. No. 6 Power Alley is the likely speed.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Ed DeRosa's picks for Thurby races at Churchill Downs
