Mad Bets: NFL Week 5 Prop Bets
Minty Bets, Jared Quay & Matt Harmon debate a few prop bets for Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season.
Video Transcript
MINTY BETS: Welcome to "Mad Bets," everyone. It's fantasy prop time. I'm here with Jared Quay as always. And joining us today is fantasy analyst Matt Harmon. Guys, let's get started. Let's hope this week isn't as weird as last week. First fantasy prop we have up is going to be over or under, 1 and 1/2 touchdowns for Joe Burrow versus the Ravens. Let's start with Mr. Harmon. What do you think?
MATT HARMON: Give me the over on this. I can see there being two passing touchdowns for Joe Burrow in this game. And, you know, look, obviously I have a lot of respect for what the Ravens are on defense. They've been a little vulnerable in terms of the secondary recently.
Obviously, we saw Patrick Mahomes get over on them. But also Terry McLaurin made a bunch of plays against that secondary too in garbage time. And I could easily see there being a lot of garbage time here with the Bengals facing the Ravens. And Joe Burrow and the Bengals are putting the ball up in the air right now, especially with rookie, Tee Higgins, as a breakout big play guy.
Over the last two weeks, this guy's actually run the most routes on the team. He looks like he's taking AJ Green's spot as the top outside receiver. So I like the way this Bengals passing offense is clicking right now.
MINTY BETS: OK. Jared, what do you think?
JARED QUAY: I think Harmon's wrong like he normally is wrong. I think Joe Burrow's a good quarterback. He's just not going to throw two touchdown passes against the Ravens. For one, he's playing against the best DBs he's played against.
You got Marcus Peters. You got Marlon Humphrey. You got Jimmy Smith. And I think he's going to get a lot of pass runs from this guy named 93 that's on the Ravens that's going to get at least two sacks. And you add that to the fact that the Ravens are going to dominate this game to the point that they might have to take Joe Burrow out to keep him from getting hurt.
MINTY BETS: Jeez, that's a little extreme. OK.
MATT HARMON: A little extreme.
[LAUGHS]
JARED QUAY: I come for shock value, guys. I come for shock value.
[LAUGHTER]
MINTY BETS: You did it. All right, I also like the under here. I mean, this Ravens defense has only allowed like, six passing touchdowns in four games. And they're really just great on both sides of the ball. I don't think Burrow and Bengals can handle this defense. I say under as well.
And then the next fantasy prop we have up is going to be Dak Prescott, over or under 450 passing yards against the Giants here. Jared, let's start with you. I know you have a lot to say about this one.
JARED QUAY: I am surprisingly a Cowboys fan here, and I think Dak Prescott easily gets over 450. The reason why is he did it the last three games, and he's going against the Giants in a must-win at home game. I love his weapons. CeeDee Lamb's great. Gallup's great-- Amari Cooper And he throws screens to Zeke.
The only way he doesn't get that much yards is if they go up like 35 to 0 in the first half. But I still like the over here because Dak is trying to get his contract. So let's get this boy his money.
MINTY BETS: All right. And Matt, what do you think?
MATT HARMON: Yeah, I mean, I love the Dallas Cowboys' passing offense too. But it's the second scenario Jared painted there that kind of has me worried. Like, I realize that the Cowboys defense is so bad that even a rough offense could, you know, make it happen against them.
But this Giants offense is just a nightmare right now after all these injuries. You got Dion Lewis and like, Devonta Freeman playing running back right now. Like, I'm pretty sure those guys were in the league when Jared was trying to, you know, make it happen in the NFL, which obviously that was a long time ago.
So my point here is this Giants offense is just so bad that I think the Cowboys could really run away from this game. They're not going to need Dak to put up those numbers. Also, Dak is on pace to break the passing yardage record by over 1,200 yards.
At some point, he's going to have to slow down from a passing game perspective. I don't think they're going to need to do as much as they have done in previous weeks against a Giants team that is just going in the total wrong direction right now.
MINTY BETS: OK. I totally agree. I actually really like the under here as the Giants passing defense is only allowing about 221-ish yards per game, 13th in scoring allowed. I don't think Dak has to do a lot, like you said Harmon. So although he has exceeded 450 passing yards in the last three games, he's only reached that once last season. So give me the under.
And then our third fantasy prop is going to be who's going to have more passing touchdowns-- Justin Herbert or Drew Brees? This one should be exciting. Harmon, what do you think?
MATT HARMON: I'm going to go with Herbert in this one. I still think that the Saints, despite the fact that they had a really good outing against the Lions defense. But, I mean, come on. It's the Lions. Like, Matt Patricia-- what is it even that you do here? You know, give me a break.
And that's such a poor defense I don't think it's representative of what they are as a team right now. I still think they are a Kamara-based offense. They're still one of the most run heavy teams on early downs right now. So I think Herbert is going to have to do more in this game, and I think he's up to the task.
This guy's averaging over 14 yards per completion when he's under pressure. That's not just when he has a clean pocket. When he's been getting heat on, he's been that good.
I am such a believer in Justin Herbert based on what we've seen so far. And despite the fact that the supporting cast is kind of falling apart around him, he's still playing above expectations. So give me Herbert in this one's for sure. I feel very confident here.
MINTY BETS: Ooh, very confident. OK, Jared. Are you going--
JARED QUAY: I was-- I was on the fence with Herbert. Then Harmon said he was very confident. So now I'm definitely going Drew Brees. This is a basically wisdom versus youth-type thing.
Herbert's a great quarterback, and he's going to have to throw. But I just think Brees and the Saints are going to turn it on here. This is the best defense that Herbert's going to have to face. So I don't think he's going to light them up like he did the Bucs, or he did the Panthers, or the Chiefs. So I'm going to go Brees here because, why not go Brees? Because he's a hall of Famer.
MINTY BETS: Normally, I would agree because I love Drew Brees. But this is, you're right, a classic rookie versus veteran quarterback. I think this is going to be a great battle between them. Saints defense-- they're allowing a lemon passing touchdown so far this season. And the Chargers defense is only allowing eight.
I think, like Harmon said earlier, the Saints are going to be very run heavy. And I think it's going to pressure Herbert to also pass a lot as Austin Ekeler is out. But I'm going to go with Herbert here, and I kind of regret it. But I think Herbert is the more logical answer.
And that wraps up our fantasy prop segment here. Guys, do not forget to check out fantasy football live every Sunday at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time for last minute fantasy advice. If you want in on the action, head over to betmgm.com/yahoo. New users get 100% match, up to $1,000. Available in Colorado, New Jersey, West Virginia, and Indiana.
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