Lions vs. Buccaneers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction
The Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Divisoinal Round matchup on Sunday afternoon. It’s enough of a buzz for a 3 p.m. kickoff that the morning coffee isn’t even brewed yet and I’m feeling the excitement.
This is a game the Lions should win. Should. It’s far from a sure thing. These Buccaneers are indeed playing a lot better now than back in Week 6, when the Lions won in Tampa 20-6.
Here’s what is racing through my mind as key matchup advantages for why I think the Lions will win and things that worry me about the Buccaneers.
Lions run defense vs. Buccaneers run offense
This one is pretty straightforward. Detroit has one of the NFL’s stingiest run defenses. Tampa Bay has one of the NFL’s least successful run offenses.
That played out to form in the Week 6 meeting. Tampa Bay RBs rushed for just 35 yards on 13 carries. Detroit’s run defense, especially against running backs, remains top-shelf. The Lions led the NFL in run defense against RBs on first downs in the regular season, allowing RBs just 3.1 yards per carry on 1st-and-10. Tampa Bay was 31st in yards per carry on 1st-and-10 at 3.2.
This sets up very well for the Lions defense to force Baker Mayfield into a lot of difficult second and third down conversions. The shaky Lions pass defense could struggle to stop some of those, but that’s the desired effect of having a strong run defense.
Sam LaPorta in line for a big day
For this week’s Wire editor best bets, I spotlighted Lions All-Pro rookie TE Sam LaPorta. The more I’ve had time to reflect upon it, the more I really like it — even with LaPorta questionable with his knee injury.
LaPorta is still nursing a bit of a knee injury that he suffered in Week 18, and that has dented his production of late. The second-team All-Pro didn’t look physically limited in the win over the Rams, even though he caught just three passes for 14 yards. LaPorta averages over 52 yards per game and draws a Buccaneers defense that surrendered the second-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends all season. Jared Goff looked his way 11 times in the first meeting and could do so again on Sunday.
Jared Goff has to be careful not to force it, because Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. are game-wreckers if he makes mistakes.
Lions run offense vs. Bucs run defense*
In the first meeting between the two teams, the Lions had major issues running the ball with a season-low 40 yards. But the asterisk is important:
Jamhyr Gibbs did not play, replaced by Devine Ozigbo
David Montgomery was limited to six carries due to injury
Jonah Jackson was out, replaced by Kayode Awosika
When healthy, the Lions run offense has been very effective. Tampa Bay’s run defense is strong (more on that in a sec), but the combination of the healthy starting five offensive linemen and Gibbs and Montgomery handling the carries has flourished. Over a nine-game span, they averaged more than 156 rushing yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry.
You might notice the asterisk once again. It’s a big one: Vita Vea. The Bucs are a significantly better run defense (and defense overall) when Vea is playing in the middle of the defensive line.
Vea plays about 60 percent of the defensive snaps when he’s healthy, and he looked fantastic in the Bucs’ win over the Eagles. He greatly inhibits the inside run, forcing plays to the outside and RBs to flow horizontally. That plays directly into the hands of speedy linebackers Lavonte David and Devin White.
Vea’s value to the run defense is almost a full tenth of a point of EPA (that’s very high), per Sports Info Solutions (SIS):
Baker Mayfield and the deep ball is a scary variable
In the first meeting, Mayfield wasn’t shy about taking shots down the field. He had some open looks for Mike Evans, one of the best wideouts in the league, too.
They failed to connect against the Lions’ biggest weakness, the deep outside pass defense. In last week’s win over the Eagles, Mayfield was sharp on those throws but Evans and his receiving mates had drop issues. But again, even though it wasn’t connecting well, they still kept trying.
That scares me. A lot. The Bucs aren’t a good red zone offense, but they are also a unit that can strike from way out. They’ve got a big mismatch against the Lions if both parts of their deep passing offense are connecting in Detroit.
I think the magic number for Detroit is four. Hold Mayfield and the Bucs to four or less passes that gain 25 yards or more. It would be even better if none of those come on Tampa Bay’s opening drive.
Bucs can handle playoff pressure
The inexperienced Lions proved the postseaosn stage wasn’t too big for them in the wild card round win over the Rams. I expect that poise and savvy to carry over. However, these Buccaneers have proven they can handle the playoff pressure very well.
This is the fourth straight year the Buccaneers are in the playoffs. Obviously, Tom Brady was at the helm for the first three years, including Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl win after the 2020 season. That team won three straight road games in the postseason and then captured the title. They lost to the eventual champion Rams the next year on a last-second field goal in the divisional round, the biggest challenge those Rams faced.
Even though Brady has moved on, much of the Buccaneers core from those impressive playoff runs remains in place. From Mike Evans to Tristan Wirfs, Lavonte David to Antoine Winfield Jr., Vita Vea to Carlton Davis, Chris Godwin to Shaq Barrett, it’s a group that won’t likely be too fazed by the raucous Ford Field crowd. Even Mayfield has an impressive playoff feather in his cap, winning in Pittsburgh for Cleveland’s first postseason win since 1994 back after the 2020 season.
Final score prediction
If the two teams met in Detroit 100 times, the Lions would win about 63 of them. Here’s hoping this isn’t one of the 37…
Lions 31, Buccaneers 23
