Lewis Hamilton's future may be decided in the next month
It was a strange weekend in Baku. The difficulty involved in getting out there, the fact that it is back-to-back with Miami, the fact that Azerbaijan is not exactly a key market for sponsors, all combine to ensure the paddock is sparsely populated. We had the new sprint race format to keep us busy, and there were a few flashpoints on the track. But it felt a bit as if we were in a holding pattern.
That term could equally apply to Lewis Hamilton's new contract. We have been stuck in a holding pattern for months now. But it is no exaggeration to say this next month could decide the seven-time world champion's future.
Mercedes have a big upgrade package planned for Imola in two races' time. And while Toto Wolff, Mercedes' team principal, did his best to play down expectations in the aftermath of Sunday's Azerbaijan Grand Prix, warning Silver Arrows fans not to expect a silver bullet, there is a lot riding on its success.
At the very least, both Hamilton and Mercedes will need to see they are moving in the right direction if they are to commit to a new multi-million pound deal. It is difficult to overstate just how crushing the start of this season was for Mercedes.
After all the pain of last year, they really believed they had turned the corner. Their win in Brazil last year gave everyone in Brackley hope that their concept could still work, that they could challenge Red Bull for the championship.
That belief went up in smoke in Bahrain where Mercedes finally accepted they would have to take a sledgehammer to the W14 and make "radical" changes to the car.
Hamilton encouraged by technical director's return
The first step to recovery is admitting there is a problem, and Mercedes have made encouraging progress since then both on and off the track. James Allison's return as technical director is a particular boon as he is seen as having genuine star quality and is associated with all of Mercedes' prior success. Hamilton will be reassured by his presence.
But there is no getting around the fact that Mercedes need this next step to be a positive one – to provide tangible evidence that they are on the right track.
Mercedes may have been the second quickest car in Australia last month but these cars are so track – and condition – specific. It was all much of a muchness again in Baku, with little to separate themselves, Ferrari and Aston Martin. They are all miles behind Red Bull. "We basically have two cars that are sailing off into the sunset on merit," Wolff said in Baku of the current pecking order. "Then there's a 20-second gap."
Mercedes must prove they can challenge Red Bull
Hamilton does not want to spend what is left of his career fighting for sixth place. If he is going to renew he will want to be reasonably confident that Mercedes can at least challenge Red Bull in the next couple of years. Mercedes, too, will want that reassurance if they are going to pay his astronomical wages.
The rest is details. There were rumours in Baku that Hamilton wants a two-year deal and Mercedes a one-and-one (one-year deal with a one-year option). There will be gossip about other drivers, rumours like the one involving Ferrari's Charles Leclerc.
But at the centre of it all is the car.
The truth is Hamilton has few options. Ferrari and Aston Martin are currently at the same level as Mercedes and surely not worth sacrificing a lifetime's association with the German carmaker for. Red Bull would be wild but it's almost impossible to see that happening. The combination of Hamilton and Max Verstappen at the same team would be incredible for the neutral – one wonders whether Bernie would have made it happen by now. But neither Horner nor Verstappen need it or want it. It would be like pouring petrol on an open flame.
Mercedes simply have to get this next step right, which is why Wolff is trying so hard to play things down. Asked whether the W14 upgrade was still intended for Imola, the Austrian confirmed that it was. "The target is Imola but I need to manage everybody's expectations because we are talking so much about that upgrade but we are not going to put it down on the track and drive circles around Red Bull," he warned after Sunday's race.
Hamilton knows that. But he also knows how important this next month is to his future. He has consistently said he is happy at Mercedes, and that he plans to stay on. But both he and the team need to know they are on the right track.
"It's been just counting the days down or counting the weeks down," the 38-year-old admitted on Sunday. "We don't currently know exactly how good the upgrade will be. But we know it will be a start of something new for us."
