Leftovers & Links: A young coach in his second season? History says success awaits Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame

Marcus Freeman is not about to claim he has all the answers, just more of them. The second-year Notre Dame head coach had a steep learning curve in 2022, one that included an 0-2 start and a to-this-day flummoxing loss to Stanford. It was a tumble of a season as much as it was an eventual success, going 6-1 in the final seven games.

“You can look at every blueprint, you can have every former coach try to give you an opinion, but until you actually go and do it, there’s challenges that you don’t know are on the horizon,” Freeman said about two weeks ago on a late-night appearance on SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt. “I’ve been so fortunate that we got through that first year, and we learned a lot.”

Van Pelt made a comparison to skiing. No tutorial or instructor or video can really convey the moment of setting off down a pitched hill for the first time. Freeman laughed as Van Pelt did so, explaining he had gone through that literal moment earlier this year at his wife’s behest.

A cynic might wonder if the anecdote popped up in a pre-interview. Regardless, the point was valid. And it prompts the thought, there is usually uncertainty before the second trip down the ski hill, too.

“As you go into year two, now you have that experience,” Freeman said, his preseason practices beard showing off a touch of gray growth on the right side of his chin despite him being only 37. “I don’t have every experience that maybe some of the people I’m going to face have gone through, but that one year has been so valuable for myself to lead this program.”

The three most notable coaches on Notre Dame’s schedule had the same experience as Freeman, as first-time head coaches at Power Five programs when they were no older than 40. Considering there had been only 15 of those since 2009 before Freeman was hired, three of them popping up on his schedule in each of his first two seasons in charge is a wild coincidence.

Dabo Swinney took over at Clemson in 2009 at just 39 and went 6-7 in his first season. Lincoln Riley was handed the reins at Oklahoma in 2017 when he was a mere 33, going 12-2. Ryan Day stepped into off-field tumult at Ohio State in 2019 as a 40-year-old, rattling off a 13-1 season.

Two of those showings were obviously better than Freeman’s 9-4 debut, but all four situations had some things in common: Established programs with enough stability to trust a young, up-and-coming coach. Yes, even Clemson was established at that point, going 25-13 in the three seasons before the 7-6 struggle that led to Tommy Bowden’s firing. The Tigers were not adrift, just not ascending.

All three of Swinney, Riley and Day enjoyed a second-year surge. Swinney improved by four wins, going 10-4. Day made his first appearance in a national championship game. Oklahoma went 12-2 again, winning the Big 12 again and putting a scare into Alabama in the College Football Playoff.

They may not share many secrets with Freeman, but they also know to expect more out of the Irish in 2023, if for no other reason than Freeman’s added experience. Bringing in a sixth-year quarterback with multiple career ACC records entering his fourth season as a team captain will only help the cause.

“There’s no substitution for experience,” Freeman said Monday. “Nothing. I don’t care if you’re a head coach or a quarterback.”

Quantifying Sam Hartman’s added experience compared to Tyler Buchner or Drew Pyne last year is easy.

Hartman has played in 46 career games, winning 25 of them including 18 of 26 in the last two seasons, attempted 1,597 passes and thrown 110 touchdowns. Buchner entered last year with 10 career appearances, no starts, 35 pass attempts and three touchdown throws. Pyne could boast six career appearances, again no starts, 33 career pass attempts and two touchdowns.

Quantifying Freeman’s gained experience entering year two is a bit more difficult. But the trend is clear.

Of the 15 first-time head coaches to get jobs in the Power Five when they were no older than 40 between 2009 and 2021, 12 of them saw improved second seasons. The exceptions: Day’s 7-1 pandemic-shortened year, Riley going 12-2 again and Mississippi’s Matt Luke falling to 5-7 after debuting at 6-6 in 2017.

The 12 who improved their second-year win totals did so by an average of three games.

Narrow that subset to the three coaches who had winning seasons in their debuts, and still, they improved by an average of three wins. In fact, the worst of those three follow-ups reached a Sugar Bowl.

Kirby Smart took Georgia to the national championship game in his second season, as did Mark Helfrich at Oregon.

This is not to say Freeman should lead Notre Dame to making some Playoff noise in 2023. It is to say the sample size is of decent enough size to suggest Freeman should lead Notre Dame to a better record than his debut 9-4.

Why this trend?

From Dan Mullen at Mississippi State (5-7 to 9-4 in 2010) to Justin Wilcox at Cal (5-7 to 7-6 in 2018) to Clark Lea at Vanderbilt (2-10 to 5-7 in 2022), these are all coaches on relatively fast trajectories, an indicator of their own acumen. Those fast trajectories were sparked by an ability to learn quickly.

And for about half of them, they stepped in at programs that already knew success — anecdotally, let’s say six of the 15 stepped into enviable positions, with Freeman the seventh of 16 and Oregon’s Dan Lanning the eighth of 17.

Talent counterweighs their inexperience, and in their second seasons, rising up that learning curve complements their talent. When in strong positions, those personal traits lead to on-field program growth.

A heartfelt thank you to a man known as “Hutch” to some of us in the college football writing community, who put much of this research together, simply as a favor to me and out of the kindness of his heart, when Marcus Freeman was hired. Hutch passed away in the 2022 offseason.

INSIDE THE IRISH
— Halfway through the preseason, Notre Dame ready to turn some attention to Navy and Dublin
— Pat Coogan, Rocco Spindler to start at offensive guard for Notre Dame as Irish ready for Ireland and Navy
— New head coach and a possible new QB may not be enough for Navy in 2023
— Reward clear, risk miniscule in Irish matchup with HBCU Tennessee State
— North Carolina State betting on QB Brennan Armstrong’s reunion with OC Robert Anae
— Rebuilding Central Michigan should not worry Irish fans
— With one of the most talented rosters in the country, Ohio State waits on a QB

OUTSIDE READING
— Navy football likely to use two quarterbacks in season opener against Notre Dame
— The top 10 secondaries in the country
— Ohio State football’s Ryan Day outlines plan for play-calling for this season
— Buckeyes cornerback Lorenzo Styles Jr. sheds black stripe
— Duke’s preparation for opener involves film study of national runner-up
— College football realignment: What’s next for ACC, Florida State?
— College football’s final preseason SP+ rankings takeaways
— College football’s last 3-peat: The Minnesota national title history Georgia is chasing
— College Football Playoff betting trends and futures odds report
— College Football Games of the Year: How sharps are fading Notre Dame already

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