The key to Shane Bieber's uncertain path with Guardians? It's his curveball; here's why

As Shane Bieber takes the ball on Opening Day in Oakland, he'll enter what is sure to be a crossroads-type season in 2024, one way or another.

His future — whether it be his status as an All-Star level pitcher in the league or if he might remain in Cleveland beyond this summer — will come to a fork-in-the-road eventually.

And possibly the biggest individual factor to determine what the next path might be for not only Bieber, but the Guardians? It could be his curveball.

Since winning the American League Cy Young Award with a dominant 2020, Bieber has undergone a few mini transformations in how he pitches, how he sequences his repertoire and how he attacks hitters. The changes have coincided with a drop in his velocity, which has dropped from 94.1 mph in 2020 to 91.3 in each of the last two seasons.

Sandwiched between a tremendously effective 2022 season (2.88 ERA, 200 innings) have been a couple of injury-plagued years in which he failed to throw more than 128 innings both times. Last year, his ERA rose to 3.80, and a few underlying metrics weren't pretty, either.

"I feel there's more in there, and I'm losing power somewhere," Bieber said.

Shane Bieber velocity drop played part in working with Driveline before 2024 season

So Bieber went to work with Driveline in Scottsdale, Ariz., just 15 minutes from where he lives. The idea was to focus on not only finding more velocity, but also a better movement profile on some of his pitches — namely the curveball.

Bieber has been eyeing a velocity increase, and early reports from camp indicate that he's found it, at least to an extent. But much of the impetus for Bieber's search for answers rested with his curveball, which along with his fastball, hadn't been as effective.

Over time, Bieber has thrown his curveball less, and his other off-speed pitches (slider, cutter) more.

Shane Bieber stats on his curveball show usage dropped since 2020

In 2020, his Cy Young year, Bieber's curveball had a 26.3% usage rate. In 2021, he used it even more, at 31.2%. But as he lost power on the mound, his curveball usage rate dropped to 17.9% in 2022 and then 13.7% last year. His whiff rate with the pitch has also suffered, dropping from 51.3% in 2020 to 32.2% a year ago.

Slowly, it became a weaker and weaker part of his arsenal.

The problem wasn't just velocity, it was movement. As Bieber lost power (and thus, spin rate), his curveball flattened out to a more horizontal offering instead of having a sharper drop, and it no longer had the proper profile to complement his slider and cutter as best it could.

"But it was hard to really get too deep into working on it," said pitching coach Carl Willis, who is someone manager Stephen Vogt will rely on in his first season. "We were also trying to navigate around his health."

The main impact of Bieber searching for more velocity on his fastball and more spin rate on his curveball is in the idea of being unpredictable on the mound. If he can throw those two pitches more often, and more effectively, his repertoire can be a much closer replica of his 2020/2021 form, at least compared to the last two years.

"I love the term 'being unpredictable,'" Willis said. "You can look back at what he did in 2020 … but I wouldn't say it was unpredictable. Everybody knew the curveball was coming, they couldn't lay off it and they couldn't hit it when they swung."

If he can rediscover at least a portion of the form on his curveball, the necessity to focus on his slider and cutter for two years could also provide a benefit to rounding out his arsenal in 2024.

"He may become a little more unpredictable, and hitters have gotten accustomed to seeing a lot of spin, seeing a lot of cutters, and we may see more fastballs and we may see more curveballs," Willis said.

Shane Bieber trade remains possible heading into 2024 in last year of contract with Guardians

Bieber is entering the last year of club control in 2024. If not for an injury last summer, he might have already been traded. He could still very well be dealt at this year's deadline, depending on where the Guardians stand in July.

A lot is in the air when it comes to Bieber's 2024 season, both as it pertains to him personally as a pitcher and the Guardians' plans. How it all unfolds likely rests with his curveball, and just how much power he was able to discover with Driveline.

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Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis1@gannett.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Threads at @ByRyanLewis.

This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Shane Bieber's 2024 season with Guardians will determine his future