What is Jon Horst's job status? Joel Embiid on the Bucks? Jim Owczarski answers readers' questions
The Milwaukee Bucks were sent home from the playoffs in the first round for the second straight year, and we called for questions about the team – and you responded with so many that we broke up this mailbag into two parts.
The first part covered what the Bucks need to do to win another title, health, Giannis Antetokounmpo playing for the Greek national team, salary cap updates and Thanasis Antetokounmpo’s role on the team.
This second part will cover your questions about general manager Jon Horst’s performance and job status, how this roster can be remade and thoughts on the upcoming NBA Draft. Let’s dive in!
Q: What is general manager Jon Horst’s job status?
Jim Owczarski: Several have asked about where general manager Jon Horst stands with the franchise, and as of now he is under contract from an extension he signed in October, 2021. The length of that extension was not disclosed, however, but his previous extension was for three years.
According to NBA writer Marc Stein, the Detroit Pistons requested to speak to Horst for their new president of basketball operations position but Bucks ownership declined that request. Horst will be the team’s general manager for at least this season.
Q: Why hasn’t Jon Horst been criticized for his roster-building?
Jim Owczarski: With the Bucks now on their third head coach in just over a calendar year and ownership paying the bill for one of the NBA’s most expensive teams – it is only natural that the person in-between draws the harshest spotlight.
This was perhaps the most often-asked question in the mailbag.
And, at this point, it is a fair critique.
Horst was rather unexpectedly promoted in 2017 and found the right mixture of players to build around an emerging Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. The Bucks have won the most regular season games since 2018-19. Horst won Executive of the Year that year, and the team has seen Antetokounmpo win MVPs, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Damian Lillard join Antetokounmpo on all-star teams, and have seen Eric Bledsoe, Brook Lopez and Holiday join Antetokounmpo on all-defensive teams.
More than all that, the Bucks won just the second title in franchise history in 2021.
Since 2017-18, only the Golden State Warriors have won more than one title (2018, 2022) and the league will crown a sixth different champion in the last six years this summer.
It’s relatively inarguable that signing Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis and trading for Bledsoe, Holiday and P.J. Tucker were worth the money and draft capital.
I feel that way about Lillard, but I can understand how some want to wait on making a firm judgment there.
It is no small thing, either, that Antetokounmpo has agreed to two contract extensions and Middleton has re-signed twice since Horst took over. Sometimes retaining your best players is the best thing a GM can do.
On the flip side of that success, Horst is now on his fourth head coach (he inherited Jason Kidd) after hiring Doc Rivers. And the team has not advanced out of the second round of the playoffs in five of the seven seasons he’s been the GM.
The Bucks have been positioned as title contenders since 2018-19 but the reality is they have only truly contended for the Larry O’Brien Trophy twice, reaching the 2019 Eastern Conference finals and of course winning the 2021 championship.
We can legitimately point to things out of the team’s control – namely a global coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and injuries to Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Lillard from 2022-24 – that have undercut them.
But, the six second-round picks moved to acquire Jae Crowder and Pat Beverley the last two seasons didn’t pay off. The acquisitions and signings (or re-signings) of Danilo Gallinari, Joe Ingles, Goran Dragić, Nikola Mirotić, Pau Gasol, George Hill, Wesley Matthews, Serge Ibaka, Jevon Carter, DeAndre’ Bembry and Marvin Williams didn’t have the impact most would have liked.
The most impactful Bucks draft pick in Horst’s tenure was Donte DiVincenzo, who developed into a starter on the 2021 title team but was traded in 2022 after coming off an injury. Milwaukee also improperly contacted Bogdan Bogdanović in 2020 and not only lost the ability to acquire the shooting guard but was docked a 2022 second-round pick for doing so.
Like any GM Horst’s ledger of pros and cons is fairly balanced. And, like the coaches and players, his performance is fair to be critiqued.
Q: Is it time to trade the core?
Jim Owczarski: In the first mailbag I did this season, many asked if the Bucks should trade Giannis Antetokounmpo. That question has been asked again, along with Khris Middleton, Damian Lillard and Brook Lopez.
The feeling I take from that, on a broad level, is that some have grown tired of the team competing for championships in the present and near future. Because by trading those players en masse, you are not likely getting similarly talented players in return and trying to win a championship.
The implication is that they would be traded to shed salary, get out of the luxury tax and tax “apron” penalties, and re-stock draft picks.
But the reality of all that is stark.
The Bucks do not control their own draft picks until 2031. New Orleans and Portland either own them outright or can swap them out – so if the Bucks suddenly become terrible, they are not getting the reward of a high pick.
OK, so the response might be to trade those players for other team’s first-round picks. It’s not that simple, however.
Including this year’s draft, six teams hold 57 of the next 150 first-round picks through 2028. Oklahoma City (13), San Antonio (12), Utah (10), New York Knicks (9), Houston (7) and Brooklyn (6) control all of those to some degree (and many of them have protections and swaps on them). If the goal is draft capital…those picks aren’t going to be very good over the next five years.
Look, the end of this current iteration of the Bucks is coming. That is a fact.
But this is not the NFL where you get rid of players one or two years too early. The Bucks are better off trying to win one more elusive championship in the next one to three years and then deal with the repercussions after the fact.
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Q: How can the Bucks reshape the roster?
Jim Owczarski: Several of you asked this question, but if we assume the Bucks return the “core four” of Antetokounmpo, Lillard, Middleton and Lopez – along with Bobby Portis – there is very little flexibility to do so.
Without getting into the weeds on tax aprons salary cap jargon, the Bucks have exactly five open roster spots as of this publication. They cannot trade two players for one. If they do make a trade, it has to match dollar-for-dollar.
And they can only offer the veteran minimum to a free agent player. There are no free agent splashes to be had. If they choose to keep their draft picks they can sign only three, veteran minimum deals.
Is that “reshaping” the roster? Not really.
The only real way to drastically alter the roster would be to trade a member of the "core four." Antetokounmpo and Lillard, to me, cannot be moved. I don't think Middleton currently could return a similar-level player that can help the 2024-25 team win a championship. Then, that leaves Lopez. Perhaps Portis (who is extension eligible).
Now, Horst would only trade Jrue Holiday for a player as talented as Lillard. So If Lopez and/or Portis were to be moved, it would have to be for players who could help the Bucks win the championship this year and next. Since the Bucks pulled Lillard out of the hat, one must always allow the possibility for another stunning big move.
Q: Can the Bucks get better on defense?
Jim Owczarski: Tim and Rick asked about how this team could improve defensively, and it’s a fair ask after the team went from a top-five (or the very best) defense in the NBA under Mike Budenholzer to No. 19 in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) last year under Adrian Griffin and Doc Rivers. It is the worst showing with a full season of Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo in their five full campaigns together – the team was 14th in 2021-22 when Lopez missed 69 games.
They were nearly two full points better defensively after the all-star break as Rivers settled in as head coach – but that performance was still middle-of-the-pack. Honestly, I think that can suffice provided the offense is top-five. That part was definitely worse under Rivers, as the Big Three played just six full games together after he took over on Jan. 29.
Lopez, one year removed from the defensive player of the year runner-up finish, still led the league in contested shots by a wide margin and was tied for second in blocked shots per game. With Antetokounmpo as a help defender, it’s still one of the best back line combinations in the NBA.
Where the team can – and must –improve is on the perimeter. Trading Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen and losing Jevon Carter in free agency before last season put the point of attack defense in a precarious spot. Andre Jackson Jr. showed promise as a disruptor, but it will be up to Horst to find a more seasoned defender who can ball handle and start alongside Lillard.
I’ll say the days of relying on 34-36-year-olds must come to an end for the Bucks. It’s easier said than done, of course, but they have to find the right players who still have some spring in the step to get better there.
Q: When will the Bucks start developing young players?
Jim Owczarski: This has been a burning question among Bucks fans for years – and thank to the many of you who asked some version of this.
In fairness to the Bucks, I think “developing young guys” is a bit of a misnomer in the NBA. The young players most see in all-star games or winning awards were high lottery picks – and played a lot in the early stages of their careers. There are always exceptions of course, but they’re easy to name because they are exceptions.
Milwaukee’s last top-10 pick was Thon Maker at No. 10 back in 2016, when John Hammond was still GM. Their highest draft picks since were D.J. Wilson and Donte DiVincenzo at No. 17 in 2017 and 2018.
As the team has gotten better their draft position has worsened – so Horst elected to make the decision to use draft picks as trade capital to acquire all-stars or veteran rotation players. And it’s been the right move, as evidenced by the 2021 championship and the most wins by any team in the NBA since 2018-19 (364).
Also, a recent ESPN study showed that 34 of the 80 players (43%) selected in the top 40 of the 2020 or 2021 NBA drafts were no longer with their original team – or never got a standard contract to begin with. So, really, “development” hasn’t happened in a lot of places.
Now, there have been rookies and “young guys” on the roster the last few years, of course. I think DiVincenzo developed nicely into a starting guard on a championship team. Wilson did not hit but was part of the deal that brought P.J. Tucker to Milwaukee. But after that, fans are looking at second-round picks on a team that is set up to win a title that year. It’s not a realistic ask when the team is spending nearly $200 million in luxury tax payments to think they have time to see what the 45th pick in the draft can do.
It’s the lane the Bucks chose and it’s hard to argue with it. Honestly, the concept of “developing young players” is one that the next coaching regime (and perhaps next front office regime) will be in charge of.
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Q: What kind of player do the Bucks need to draft this year?
Jim Owczarski: Al wondered if the Bucks will keep their picks this year, at Nos. 23 and 33, while Tim and Doug were wondering if the team will pick a point guard and/or rim protecting big man. It is worth asking if they’ll keep the picks – they are part of the limited assets the team has to trade – but if they do, the backup point guard and center positions are needs. The problem is that draft history says the team is not really going to find impact players in those draft positions. Or, if they do, they’re not going to be impact players in helping the Bucks win a title in 2024-25.
With the draft occurring before free agency, Horst will have to determine if keeping those two picks – and limiting himself to just three veteran minimum signings in free agency – is the right way to go to help them win a title this season as well as buttress the roster for 2025-26 and beyond. If he does, I believe he should swing big with the first-round pick, a player he thinks could defy the odds and become an all-star level player. The second-round pick could be a more polished player, perhaps able to contribute.
No doubt the dream scenario would be finding the “next” Jalen Brunson (No. 33 by Dallas in 2018) but remember – it took him three seasons to reach 25 minutes per game and four seasons to become a starter.
Q: Would Joel Embiid have fit with Giannis if the Bucks drafted him in 2014?
Jim Owczarski: Interesting question from Doug A. As a reminder, the Bucks selected Duke’s Jabari Parker No. 2 overall in the 2014 draft and the 76ers No. 3. Embiid would miss his first two seasons with a foot injury and didn’t play 60 games in a season until his first all-star campaign in 2017-18. He has battled various injuries since but has made seven straight all-star games, won two scoring titles and was the 2022-23 MVP.
Parker tore his left ACL after 25 games and then tore it again in 2017 as he was averaging 20.1 points per game and would end up playing for five more teams from 2018-22 and was out of the NBA at the age of 26.
My gut reaction is the fit would have been there.
Antetokounmpo’s ascension coincided with Embiid slowly getting healthy, and we’ve seen Embiid develop into a mid-range threat with the ability to shoot the three-pointer. He is also a plus defender. I think if he was under contract when Mike Budenholzer took over in 2018, we’d have seen Embiid playing the Lopez role. The real question would have been if a healthy(ish) Embiid would have wanted to sign extensions to stay with the Bucks as his offensive skillset exploded. It would’ve been fun to watch them work together on both ends of the court, that’s for sure.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: What is Jon Horst's job status? Embiid on the Bucks? Jim Owczarski answers readers' questions
