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John Shipley: As currently composed, Twins are going nowhere fast

john shipley, pioneer press
·4 min read
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The Minnesota Twins entered the All-Star Game break Sunday having accomplished something truly remarkable, if not admirable — under .500 despite having one of the two best starting rotations in baseball.

It’s amazing, really.

Twins’ starters have combined to lead Major League Baseball in innings pitched (517) and strikeouts (561), and are third in earned-run average (3.68). Leader Atlanta is the best team in baseball and on a 20-3 run.

The Twins, on the other hand — despite this surfeit of above-average big league starters — entered the break like a man falling down a mountain, tail over tea kettle, losers of three straight after an astonishing 15-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.

“I think we squeezed a lot of rough play out of the tube on the last day before the break,” manager Rocco Baldelli said afterward.

It’s a great quote, but no one who has watched the Twins play their first 91 games will buy it. One wonders if even his team, which Baldelli has publicly nurtured since he was hired before the 2019 season, believes that. This team, as currently composed, might still win the worst division in baseball, but probably not. It appears downhill from here.

It’s borderline insane to think the starting pitching will actually be better over the last 71 games, and it will have to be for the Twins to reel off the kind of 10-2 run required to separate themselves from the pack in the Central. The hitting isn’t there and, frankly, the bullpen hasn’t been stellar, either.

Something has to change, and waiting for the Aug. 1 trade deadline might be too late. If this team starts a three-game series at Oakland as currently composed, it will go nowhere. The Twins might sweep the A’s, the worst team in baseball, but it will be a mirage, the way sweeping Kansas City last week was a mirage.

The feeling from Day 1 is that the Twins are good enough to win the Central, the only big league division without a winning team; they’re 9-1 against the last-place Royals, and 9-10 against the rest of the Central.

Should a 45-46 team with this track record really be a deadline buyer? Even if Roy Hobbs was available, a half dozen other veterans on whom the Twins were relying would have to completely turn it around at the plate.

Max Kepler is a good right fielder; he’s hitting .207. Byron Buxton is a great center fielder; he’s hitting .208 and not playing center field. Michael A. Taylor has played good defense in Buxton’s stead; he’s batting .217. Joey Gallo, signed on a $13 million flier in December, has 15 home runs but has 95 strikeouts and a .186 batting average.

Gallo’s whole career has been a case study for those who don’t believe batting average is as important as we used to believe. Maybe, but it’s hard to believe there is a place for that kind of player on a team hitting .232 with an MLB-high 916 strikeouts and 380 total runs — 24th of 30 major league teams.

The hitting has been so dreadful that it’s hard not to wonder what might have been had Derek Falvey and Thad Levine not traded Luis Arraez to Miami for Pablo Lopez, named an All-Star replacement for the AL team on Sunday. The right-hander has been good, but Arraez is the NL’s starting second baseman and leading baseball with a .386 batting average.

The Twins’ best two hitters, Carlos Correa and Donovan Solano, have four more hits combined (130) than Arraez (126). It doesn’t help that the Twins’ current second baseman, rookie Edouard Julien, struggles to make routine plays.

Buxton, an All-Star last season along with Arraez, is hitting .208 and hasn’t played center field — or any field — once this season, marooned at designated hitter because he’s not healthy enough to play defense. It’s impossible not to suspect, if not determine, that he also isn’t healthy enough to hit.

Baldelli has spoken often about a “better approach” at the plate. After 91 games, it’s hard to see one coming — at least one that sticks long enough to make a difference.

Correa, still great at short and ostensibly the team’s best hitter, has a .225 average. Now that Royce Lewis is on the shelf with an oblique strain, Solano (.281) and Alex Kirilloff (.274) are the only Twins regulars hitting better than .244. Batting average matters, especially when you don’t draw a lot of walks — the Twins rank 16th with a combined 297 — because getting on base matters. Moving runners matters. Driving in runs matters.

Striking out matters.

If you’re looking for statistical proof, consider that, as mentioned above, the Twins have arguably the best rotation in baseball and are 26-34 since May 1.

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