John Deere Classic Preview
The PGA Tour stays in the Midwest, traveling from Detroit to Silvis, Illinois. The John Deere Classic is next to the plate.
We are now two weeks removed from the U.S. Open and two weeks away from The Open. This is the perfect tune-up spot for players that want to pick up some confidence, and FedExCup Points, before traveling across the pond.
The two lead-in events have yielded winning scores of 23-under and 24-under. Should we expect another birdie barrage this week? Let's hop right in to discuss.
The Course
TPC Deere Run took over hosting duties in 2000 and continues to play that role, 23 years later.
The course is a D.A. Weibring design that originally played as a 7,183-yard test for that 2000 edition and today it plays up to 7,289 yards.
That doesn't sound extremely short but it's more important to look at how the course plays, rather than raw yardage.
Looking at last year's event, nearly 45 percent of approach shots originated from inside of 150 yards. This is a real wedge-fest and the scoring environment reflects that. The winning score has been 20-under or lower in 10 of the last 13 editions.
Off the tee, distance is not a requirement but also not going to hurt you. The course is right in front of you with thick rough and fairway bunkers as the main defense. However, this is the Midwest in July so the greens have to be kept on the soft side. So, it's no surprise to see the field averages around 71 percent of the fairways here and also 71 percent GIR. Both figures rate out well above Tour average.
For turf the pros see bentgrass fairways, kentucky bluegrass rough, and the bentgrass putting surfaces average 5,500 square feet, prepped to run around 12 feet on the stimp.
Course Quotes
Sifting through some past quotes, let's try to break down the course to see how it will play.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout in 2022: "I actually think it's not a course that you need to know. It's pretty straightforward off the tee box. The greens are soft so you can fire at the pins. So everything just comes down to short irons and putting. Off the tee it's pretty generous."
Francesco Molinari in 2018: "There is not many blind shots, not many tricks or anything like that. It's all in front of you."
Michael Kim in 2018: "If you look at kind of the guys that have done well here going back, guys like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, you know, guys that don't necessarily bomb the ball, but with good wedge game and putting they can do good out here."
Wedges and putting, that is the recipe that so many of the pros talk about at TPC Deere Run.
Golfers to Watch
Denny McCarthy
He arrives with three top 10s in his last six starts. McCarthy also twirled at T6 at TPC Deere Run last year. He sat T2 thru 54 holes that week. The trends are converging for one of the best putters on the planet, so it's easy to see why he's opened as a co-favorite in the betting market this week.
Russell Henley
The other co-favorite would be Henley who brings more long-term pedigree to the table. That's not to say he's playing poorly lately. In fact, he's landed top 20s in seven of his last eight stroke-play events. Only one of those doubled as a top 10 but he's certainly been hanging around on leaderboards lately. On top of that, he sports a T11 and runner-up finish in his last two tries at TPC Deere Run.
Zach Johnson
The Iowa native is comfortable when he returns to the Midwest and it has shown over the years in Silvis, just across the border. He's piled up a win (2012) and five other podiums in 20 tries at the JDC. He's missed just three cuts in that span, having to go back to the 2007 edition to find the last early trunk slam. On the flip side to that stellar history, Johnson limps in with just one top 25 in his last 21 stroke-play events. This is a classic example of course history versus recent form that gamers will have to judge.
Ludvig Aberg
He was nearly flawless off the tee last week but faded from 3rd to 40th over the weekend at Detroit Golf Club. His driver is a serious weapon, already in the same category as Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young in terms of driving prowess. He's lost 6.6 strokes on approach in the last two starts, though, so he will need to tidy that up if he wants to make an early leap into superstar status.
Nick Taylor
The Canadian is having the best season of his career and now he heads to TPC Deere Run for an eighth appearance at the event. He's missed the cut in four of his previous tries with nothing better than a T28 finish (2021). "I like this golf course. I've just never played well here... I think mostly here I've always for some reason not putted great." Up above, I talked about history versus form debate for Zach Johnson and we have a similar story here with Taylor, just a reversal of history and form.
Ranking the Field
1. Denny Mccarthy
2. Russell Henley
3. Taylor Moore
4. Cameron Young
5. Chris Kirk
6. Keith Mitchell
7. Adam Hadwin
8. Nick Taylor
9. Patrick Rodgers
10. Stephan Jaeger
11. Emiliano Grillo
12. Eric Cole
13. Taylor Montgomery
14. Seamus Power
15. Adam Schenk
16. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
17. Ludvig Aberg
18. Matt Kuchar
19. J.T. Poston
20. K.H. Lee
