Jack Campbell and the Lions bucking the trend on positional values
Tuesday afternoon marked the deadline for NFL teams to pick up the fifth-round options on the rookie contracts for the first-round picks of the 2020 NFL draft. The Detroit Lions didn’t have any decision to make, not after previously trading away Jeff Okudah, but the way the deadline played out does shine some light on the Lions.
The Lions and GM Brad Holmes have taken some shots about their strategy of drafting a running back and a linebacker in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft. The fifth-year option decisions illustrate one of the main talking points for those who question Detroit’s strategy of positional valuation.
In the 2020 NFL draft, four linebackers were selected in the first round. The quintet has experienced an array of success over their collective first three seasons. Yet not one of them had his fifth-year option picked up.
Nobody expected the Cardinals to pick up the option on No. 7 overall pick Isaiah Simmons, who is still looking for one actual NFL position he can play well. Simmons hasn’t been bad, just not the impact pillar of versatility he was billed to be pre-draft.
The other three off-ball LBs in the first round have all emerged as good players. Kenneth Murray with the Chargers (No. 23 overall), Jordyn Brooks of the Seahawks (No. 27) and Patrick Queen in Baltimore (No. 28) are good NFL starters. Queen and Brooks are very good players, key pieces of pretty strong overall defenses. Murray racked up over 100 tackles as a rookie and is still a useful player, albeit in a more limited role.
In short, even the “hits” at off-ball linebacker in the draft proved to be unworthy of the $11.27 million basic fifth-year option. Why? Because the free agent market makes it less expensive to let guys like Brooks and Queen hit free agency and sign them long-term, or use a middle-round pick to replace them than it would be to pick up the option.
The market just isn’t there across the league for premium off-ball LBs. There are eight LBs in the league who average more than the fifth-year option figure. One of them is Queen’s Baltimore teammate, Roquan Smith. Chicago paid another one of those, Tremaine Edmunds, to replace Smith in its defense this offseason.
Edmunds is a good focal point here. The No. 16 overall pick of the 2018 NFL draft, Edmunds was an immediate impact player for the Buffalo Bills: 121 tackles, two interceptions, two forced fumbles as a rookie. Pro Bowls the next two seasons. Pro Football Focus largely downvotes his contributions, but Edmunds was a key contributor for the Bills, a perennial playoff team these days.
The Lions would be happy to get out of Jack Campbell what the Bills got from Edmunds over the course of his rookie contract. Even so, Buffalo had no problem letting Edmunds go as a free agent. He’s being replaced by a third-round rookie, Dorian Williams, or a third-rounder from last year, Terrel Bernard. Buffalo does have one of those top-shelf LB contracts in Matt Milano, a fifth-round pick in 2017.
So when you hear bellyaching about positional value and drafting premium positions, that’s where the consternation comes from. The team-building mechanics and budgeting make off-ball linebacker a position where premium resources simply aren’t in high demand. Four of those eight premium LBs around the league weren’t first-round picks, including Milano.
The Lions are hoping to buck the trend with Campbell. He’s got all the skills and potential to lead the team in tackles and upgrade the middle-of-field pass coverage from Week 1 onward. There is real value in that, especially for a team like Detroit that needed a talent upgrade at the second level of the defense.
Holmes and the Lions have deemed Jack Campbell a worthwhile deviation from both the NFL’s current standards and their own history at the position. We will see if that pays off for the Lions. Value is relative, after all. Campbell delivering a third-down top that secures the team’s first postseason home game at Ford Field — which could very well happen this coming December — will make the divisive pick eminently worthy.
