Here's why Kevin Durant, Devin Booker will lead Phoenix Suns past Denver Nuggets in six

Phoenix Suns begin their Western Conference semifinals series Saturday at Denver in an 1-4 matchup.

Here is a breakdown of the series and prediction:

(4) Suns-(1) Nuggets series schedule, TV:

• Saturday: Game 1, 5:30 p.m., (TNT), Ball Arena.

• Monday: Game 2, 7 p.m., (TNT), Ball Arena.

• May 5: Game 3, 7 p.m., (ESPN), Footprint Center.

• May 7: Game 4, 5 p.m., (TNT), Footprint Center.

• May 9: Game 5, TBD, (TNT), Ball Arena (if necessary).

• May 11: Game 6, TBD, (ESPN), Footprint Center, (if necessary).

• May 14: Game 7, TBD, (TBD), Ball Arena (if necessary).

Prediction: Suns in 6

The Nuggets are the No. 1 seed in the West for the first time ever. Everything runs through reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, but Denver having a healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. gives it beyond a fighting chance against Phoenix. However, the Nuggets don’t have anyone to slow down Kevin Durant or Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton has held his own against Jokic over the years. If it reaches a Game 7 in Denver, Phoenix will be in trouble, but it won’t.

2022-23 regular season series: 2-2

• Christmas Day: Nuggets 128, Suns 125 (OT).

• Jan. 11: Nuggets 126, Suns 97.

• March 31: Suns 100, Nuggets 93.

• April: 6: Suns 119, Nuggets 115.

• (Home team in bold).

Last Suns-Nuggets playoff meeting

2021 Western Conference semifinals (Suns won in four)

• Game 1: Suns 122, Nuggets 105.

• Game 2: Suns 123, Nuggets 98.

• Game 3: Suns 116, Nuggets 102.

• Game 4: Suns 125, Nuggets 118.

• (Home team in bold).

Three major storylines

Jokic vs. Ayton. They have split their 14 matchups with Ayton winning four of his seven in that 2021 postseason sweep. Jokic is the better overall player, he stuffs the stat sheet, but Ayton has shown the ability to stay in front of him in the post and score against the reigning two-time MVP. The key stats to watch here are personal fouls and turnovers. Whoever can avoid picking up fouls and being loose with the ball will greatly determine the series.

More: 'Going to be fun': Deandre Ayton looking forward to matchup with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic

Altitude, minutes and Suns bench: Durant and Booker averaged 44 and 43.2 minutes in the Clippers series. Playing in the Denver altitude is always an issue for visiting teams. Will that lead to Suns coach Monty Williams playing Durant and Booker less? If so, then Williams will need more from his bench. Josh Okogie has become Phoenix’s sixth man in the postseason, but he’s not enough. Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne come to mind first, but Damion Lee, T.J. Warren or Terrence Ross may get a shot, too.

Booker carryover: Next to Miami’s Jimmy Butler, Booker has been the best player in the playoffs so far. He’s averaging 37.2 points in the postseason and coming off a 47-point cooking of the Clippers in Game 5 closeout that tied a career playoff high. The Nuggets will mix up their defenses, but if Booker remains hot, they’ll have to make firmer decisions. Double Booker, Durant is unleashed. They give Durant extra attention, Booker can continue to cook. Denver must force someone else to beat them other than Durant or Booker. Enter Chris Paul.

Suns-Nuggets matchup breakdown

Best superstar: Durant or Jokic?

Jokic is the reigning two-time MVP. Durant has two finals MVPs. As special as Jokic is, Durant is more proven in the postseason. What’s scary about Durant is he’s played just 13 games with Phoenix and the Suns have won 12 of them. He’s only going to get better. Advantage: Durant.

More: Suns-Nuggets: Nikola Jokic needs NBA title to take spot alongside MVPs like LeBron, Jordan

Best starting five

Murray used to torch Phoenix before his knee injury that sidelined him the entire 2021-22 season. He scored 46 versus the Suns in the 2018-19 season and averaged 28.3 in four games against them in 2019-20 season. Murray then scored 31 on the Suns in 2020-21 season. He’s averaging a career playoff-high so far this year at 27.2 points a game. If Murray produces like that against the Suns and Porter Jr. delivers, Nuggets may indeed have the better starting lineup. Maybe. Advantage: Suns.

Best bench

Hard call. Nuggets wing Bruce Brown is probably the best bench player of both teams. The Suns entered Friday’s playoff games last in bench points per game at 14.4 points. The Nuggets are at 20.4. Phoenix seems unsettled on a bench rotation other than Bismack Biyombo and Okogie, but Denver is rolling Jeff Green, rookie Christian Braun and Brown. Advantage. Nuggets.

Best coach

Nuggets coach Michael Malone and Williams established a culture that has been the foundation for the success of their teams. They stress defense and scoring in transition. In-game adjustments is what will separate the two in this series. Advantage. Even.

Team playoff stat comparison (Going into Friday’s games)

Points per game: Suns 122 (2^nd), Nuggets 114.2 (9^th).

Points allowed:  Suns 115.6 (9^th), Nuggets 105 (5^th).

Offensive rating: Suns 122.5 (1^st), Nuggets 117.2 (4^th).

Defensive rating: Suns 116.3 (12^th), Nuggets 109.6 (6^th).

Pace: Suns 99.50 (Tied-9^th), Nuggets 94.82 (Tied-11^th).

Personal fouls: Suns 21.2 (10^th), Nuggets 23.0 (15^th).

Clutch win%: Suns 66.7% (2-1, 6^th), Nuggets 75% (3-1, 5^th).

Have opinion about current state of the Suns? Reach Suns Insider Duane Rankin at dmrankin@gannett.com or contact him at 480-787-1240. Follow him on Twitter at @DuaneRankin.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Here's why Kevin Durant, Devin Booker will lead Phoenix Suns past Denver Nuggets in six