Good Morning, Illini Nation: Updated 2023-24 projections
Jul. 5—Welcome to "Good Morning, Illini Nation," your daily dose of college basketball news from Illini beat writer and AP Top 25 voter Scott Richey. He'll offer up insights every morning on Brad Underwood's team:
The projections for Illinois ahead of the 2023-24 season have certainly changed in the last month-plus. In mid-May the Illini weren't sure Terrence Shannon Jr. or Coleman Hawkins would return for another season in Champaign. They didn't quite push their decision to the 11th hour, but it was close.
Illinois also didn't have a point guard the last time we looked at 2023-24 projections. Still only kind of does with Ty Rodgers the frontrunner ahead of redshirt freshman Niccolo Moretti and more-a-combo-guard true freshman Dravyn Gibbs-Lawhorn. The RayJ Dennis miss and short-lived Jeremiah Williams era (which never really happened because he only committed and never actually signed) mean the Illini didn't get the veteran point guard Brad Underwood said he wanted.
So with that, here are a few updated tidbits from the projections at BartTorvik.com:
— Illinois now projects as the No. 29 team in the country heading into the 2023-24 season, which is a jump of 21 spots from the projection that didn't include Shannon and Hawkins. It's also seven spots better without Williams part of the rotation (go figure). That puts the Illini third in the Big Ten behind No. 1 Purdue and No. 8 Michigan State.
— Shannon and Hawkins opting for another season of college basketball did change one metric considerably. Before those two made their decision, Illinois was only projected to return 31.3 percent of its minutes played from 2022-23. That number nearly doubled to 60.9 percent with the veteran duo's return.
— Perhaps you heard Brad Underwood mention last year's team was the youngest among the power conference programs. He might have gone to that well a time or 12 and even mentioned it again to me last week. This time it was as a point of contrast. Illinois got old this offseason with the transfer additions of Marcus Domask, Justin Harmon and Quincy Guerrier on top of Shannon and Hawkins' return. The Illini are the 42nd most experienced team in the country going into 2023-24 and 11th among power conference teams.
— From a win-loss perspective, the latest Torvik projections have Illinois going 20-11 overall and 11-9 in the Big Ten. So a lot like last season.